After a mid-season stretch saw the Buffalo Bills lose four games and fall behind the New England Patriots in the AFC East, Josh Allen and company have pulled back into the division fight. Buffalo’s win over New England last week denied the Patriots a chance to clinch the AFC East, and now the Bills are just one game behind New England in the standings.
And this weekend, Buffalo can punch their ticket to the playoffs before turning their sights back to New England and potentially another division title.
Here is how Buffalo can clinch a playoff spot in Week 16.
Buffalo Bills playoff picture
The Buffalo Bills travel to northeast Ohio to take on the Cleveland Browns on Sunday, and they have the chance to clinch a playoff spot in Week 16.
But they might have to wait until Monday night to celebrate.
There are four ways Buffalo can clinch a playoff berth. The first (and the most probable) comes with a win over the Browns, and an Indianapolis Colts loss or tie against the San Francisco 49ers on Monday Night Football.
Buffalo can also clinch a playoff spot with a win over the Browns, and a Houston Texans loss or tie against the Las Vegas Raiders on Sunday. However, the Texans are heavy favorites in that game, making this the less-likely path.
Buffalo can also clinch a playoff spot if their game against Cleveland ends in a tie. If that game ends tied, a Colts loss OR a Texans loss gets the Bills into the playoffs.
AFC standings entering Week 16
Here are the full AFC standings entering Week 16:
Here are the full AFC standings heading into Week 16:
- Denver Broncos (12-2) – x
- New England Patriots (11-3)
- Jacksonville Jaguars (10-4)
- Pittsburgh Steelers (7-6)
- Los Angeles Chargers (10-4)
- Buffalo Bills (10-4)
- Houston Texans (9-5)
- Indianapolis Colts (8-6)
- Baltimore Ravens (7-7)
- Kansas City Chiefs (6-8) – e
- Miami Dolphins (6-8) – e
- Cincinnati Bengals (4-10) – e
- New York Jets (3-11) – e
- Cleveland Browns (3-11) – e
- Las Vegas Raiders (2-12) – e
- Tennessee Titans (2-12) – e
x – Team has clinched a playoff spot
e – Team has been eliminated from playoff contention
While Sunday’s game between the Bills and the Browns does not have tiebreaker implications for those two teams directly, it may have tiebreaker implications for the Bills in their chase of the Patriots in the AFC East.
Right now the Patriots lead the AFC East with an 11-3 record, while Buffalo is one game back at 10-4. New England plays the Baltimore Ravens in Week 16, before finishing the season with games against the New York Jets and the Miami Dolphins.
As for Buffalo, after playing Cleveland they finish with the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 17, and the Jets in Week 18.
If the Patriots and the Bills finish the season tied, tiebreakers to determine the AFC East winner will start as follows (current status of each tiebreaker is listed):
- Head-to-head record: (Season tied 1-1);
- Division record: (Patriots 3-1, Bills 3-2);
- Record in common games: (Patriots 8-1, Bills 8-2);
- Record in AFC games: (Patriots 6-3, Bills 7-3)
The Browns are one of the common opponents between the Patriots and the Bills this season, and an AFC team, so this game could matter for both that third tiebreaker step, as well as the fourth.
Now could the AFC East title come down to those steps?
With the Bills and Patriots splitting the season series, if they finish the year tied, the division title would at least advance to the second step. Hypothetically, if the Bills win the rest of their games to finish 13-4, they will finish with a 4-2 record in AFC East games. Then, if the Patriots go 2-1 down the stretch — with a loss to either the Jets or the Dolphins — they finish 13-4 as well, with a matching 4-2 record in the division.
Which would advance the AFC East to the third tiebreaker, common games.
In this scenario, Buffalo would eventually win the division. New England’s final three games are all against common opponents, so finishing 2-1 down the stretch (again, with a loss to the Jets or the Dolphins) would move their record to 10-2 in those games. If the Bills win the rest of their games (two of which are against common opponents, starting this weekend against the Browns) Buffalo would be … 10-2.
Moving the division to the fourth tiebreaker, AFC record.
New England would be 8-4, while Buffalo would be 9-3. Congratulations Bills.
