NFL playoff picture: What Chargers win over Chiefs means for AFC standings in Week 15

Postgame update: The Chargers beat the Chiefs, 16-13, to eliminate Kansas City from the NFL Playoffs. The Chargers remain in the No. 5 seed right now at 10-4 overall because they have the tiebreak over the Buffalo Bills on conference record (8-2 vs 7-3). The Chiefs’ season is over.

4 p.m. window update: The Broncos beat the Packers to improve to 12-2 and maintain their two-game divisional lead on the Chargers.

Week 15 of the 2025 NFL season was filled with fascinating matchups, but but Sunday’s game between the Los Angeles Chargers and the Kansas City Chiefs might have had the biggest stakes of any game on the slate.

The Chargers had the chance to eliminate Kansas City from the NFL playoff hunt with a victory. That’s exactly what happened.

The Chargers beat the Chiefs, 16-13, to officially finish off the Chiefs’ playoff hopes. Kansas City dropped to 6-8 with the loss. The Chargers improved to 10-4 with the win.

Los Angeles Chargers playoff picture

Entering the game, if the playoffs were to begin today, the Los Angeles Chargers would be in the postseason as the No. 5 seed in the AFC, and face a trip to Pittsburgh to take on the Steelers on Wild Card Weekend.

However, the season is not over.

The Chargers kept pace in the NFC playoff picture with the win over the Chiefs. would keep pace with the Denver Broncos in the AFC West and keep their hopes for a division title alive. (Denver cannot clinch the AFC West this weekend, but they can clinch a playoff spot with a win over the Green Bay Packers). A win would also keep Los Angeles in a strong position for a Wild Card spot.

A loss would not be fatal to their playoff hopes, but there is a scenario where the Chargers fall out of a playoff spot if they lose to Kansas City. A loss to the Chiefs, paired with wins from the Houston Texans and the Indianapolis Colts, would drop Los Angeles out of a playoff spot with three weeks remaining.

Kansas City Chiefs playoff picture

The Kansas City Chiefs have enjoyed an incredible run during the Patrick Mahomes era.

But that run could end this weekend.

At the outset, this time of year you need to have NFL Playoff Scenarios bookmarked, as they are an incredible resource. As they point out, there are 37 different scenarios where the Chiefs could be eliminated this weekend. Those scenarios include some wild results involving combined wins from teams around the league, that would lead to the Chiefs losing tiebreakers.

But the most straightforward way Kansas City can be eliminated from playoff contention this week? If they lose to the Chargers, they are at risk. Pair that result with a Buffalo Bills win or tie against the New England Patriots, a Jacksonville Jaguars win or tie against the New York Jets, and a Houston Texans win against the Arizona Cardinals, and the Chiefs are eliminated.

Those are three very possible results.

With a win, Kansas City would move to 7-7 on the year, and while they have already been eliminated from contention for an AFC West title, they would remain alive in the chase for a Wild Card spot.

The Chargers won the first meeting between these two teams, and a win on Sunday would give Los Angeles a season sweep of the Chiefs. That could come into play if the teams were to finish the year tied for a Wild Card spot, as the first tiebreaker is head-to-head record.

If the Chiefs win this game, the two teams will split the season series. If they finish the year tied for a Wild Card spot and have split the season series, the next tiebreaker is division record. Heading into Week 15, the Chargers are 4-0 in division play, while the Chiefs are 1-2. But a Kansas City win would improve the Chiefs to 2-2, and drop the Chargers to 4-1. Los Angeles has one division game remaining after Kansas City, against the Broncos in Week 18, and the worst they can finish in division games is 4-2. As for Kansas City, after playing the Chargers they have two more AFC West games, against the Broncos and the Las Vegas Raiders.

Meaning the two teams could finish tied in division games with matching 4-2 records. That would push any tiebreaker scenario between the two teams to the third tiebreaker, which is record against common opponents. That’s where, believe it or not, the Chiefs have an advantage. Common opponents between Kansas City and Los Angeles this year include the Washington Commanders, the Indianapolis Colts, and the New York Giants.

The Chiefs won those games, while the Chargers lost those three games.

Here are the full AFC standings heading into Sunday:

Here are the full AFC West standings heading into Week 15 action: