Despite many wanting to believe that the NFL is going back to being a three-yards-and-a-cloud-of-dust league, it is not. The NFL is a passing league. And even though basic box score passing numbers have been down over the last two seasons compared to the boom of the 2010s, you can’t have a successful run game without also having a successful pass game and a good quarterback.
Run-pass correlation in the NFL
There is a direct correlation between having a good rushing attack and having a good passing game. When looking at the top 10 rushing teams in 2024 in terms of EPA per rush, all but one ranked in the top 10 in EPA per pass. That team was the Carolina Panthers, who finished 18th in rushing yards and had their four biggest outlier rushing games against the Las Vegas Raiders, Cincinnati Bengals, New York Giants, and Arizona Cardinals – none of which had a higher defensive EPA ranking than 16th, and three of which all finished 22nd or worse.
When looking at the remaining nine teams, you’ll notice a pattern:
- Washington Commanders
- Buffalo Bills
- Baltimore Ravens
- Philadelphia Eagles
- Arizona Cardinals
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Detroit Lions
- Green Bay Packers
- Kansas City Chiefs
What do they all have? A good quarterback, a good collection of weapons, a good offensive line, a good playcaller, or all of the above. It’s no surprise that Jayden Daniels, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, and Jalen Hurts – four of the best quarterbacks in football – are opening up things for the run game. A good quarterback and good weapons take away the ability for defenses to load up the box to purely stop the run. To compare, look at the teams that were the worst at running the ball:
32. Las Vegas Raiders
31. Miami Dolphins
30. Dallas Cowboys
29. Tennessee Titans
28. Pittsburgh Steelers
No good quarterbacks in this group, as Dak Prescott missed most of 2024. Tua Tagovailoa missed considerable time, as well, and even then, the Dolphins seem to have peaked. Aidan O’Connell, Will Levis/Mason Rudolph, and Justin Fields/Russell Wilson aren’t elevating offenses, nor did they have great weapons to elevate.
Debunking the Eagles argument for running the ball
To start, let’s debunk the biggest argument that everyone on team “Run the damn ball” loves to throw out every time this debate comes up – “LOOK AT THE EAGLES!”, they proclaim while reaching pure euphoria watching All-22 of perfectly-schemed duo runs.
Yes, the Eagles were terrific at running the ball in 2024. Per FTN Fantasy, they were second in EPA per attempt and second in yards before contact per attempt. They were also tied for second in rushing touchdowns and were fourth in EPA per rush on expected run plays, per Sumer Sports. That said, they were also one of the best passing teams in the NFL in terms of efficiency. Philadelphia was fifth in EPA per play on expected pass plays and fifth in EPA per pass in non-garbage time. To continue, they were fourth in EPA per pass while trailing and second while leading.
The perfect example of the dichotomy of the Eagles’ offense came against the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 15. Jalen Hurts threw for 290 yards while A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith each had over 100 yards and a touchdown apiece. The Eagles got the ball with 10:29 left in the fourth quarter and didn’t give it back. On a 21-play drive (excluding three kneel downs) the Eagles ran the ball on 12 of them, but it was a 21-yard pass to Brown on third-and-six and a 22-yard pass to Smith on second-and-14 that got them out of jams and allowed them to run the clock down.
Saquon Barkley is terrific, but does he have the year he had if he didn’t play with a good quarterback, an elite receiver, an elite No. 2 receiver, and arguably the best offensive line in football? We have six years of proof that the answer is no.
It’s not just Barkley you can say that about, either. Josh Jacobs barely cracked 800 yards in 2023. He goes to the Green Bay Packers in 2024 and their good quarterback in Jordan Love, great offensive-minded head coach in Matt LaFleur, and good offensive line. Was he somehow worse with the Raiders? Did he magically get better with the Packers? The answer to both is no. He’s a good player who, on a bad team, couldn’t thrive or move the needle. On a good team, he takes them up a notch and makes them even better by rushing for over 1,300 yards with a better allocation of resources and talent around him.
We can go back to Christian McCaffrey with this, too. He’s always been a great player, but there’s only so much he can do while on a bad team. Send him to an already great team in the San Francisco 49ers, though, and he helps put them over the top and gets them back to a Super Bowl. That’s what running backs are good for in 2025 – being the cherry on top of the sundae, not the whole dessert. So if you want to be able to “run the damn ball,” you had better be able to throw the damn ball.
