If there was one word to sum up the 1st round of the 2025 NFL Draft it would be “unexpected.” That’s always the case, but Thursday night really hammered home the differences in how teams view prospects.
Conventional wisdom tells us that the draft is more imprecise science than skill, with the best teams understanding it’s simply better to take more bites of the apple — because that increases the chance of actually hitting someone. That’s especially true of this draft, where seemingly nobody could agree on not just the best prospects, but how guys stacked up inside their position groups.
If we compare where players got taken vs. their position on JP Acosta’s big board we get a good picture of who got steals in the first round, and who really reached to find their guy. With this metric a minus rating denotes how many picks below their draft spot a guy was taken — aka a steal, while a plus mean s how much higher a guy was taken than their big board position, so it was a reach.
REACH: Cameron Ward — Titans (+25)
There’s a football adage that if you don’t have a quarterback then nothing else matters, and the Titans really showed this off on Thursday night. Tennessee elected to take (arguably) the best guy at a bad position instead of a difference maker, and it might be one of the biggest examples of short sighted drafting in NFL hitory.
Ward was 26th on the big board, one spot behind Shedeur Sanders. Obviously the Titans fell in love with Ward, but that doesn’t change the fact that they passed on a lot of proven talent to take a handful of magic beans.
STEAL: Malaki Starks — Ravens (-22)
My God, the value here. Baltimore ended up with the best safety in the draft by a huge margin and didn’t even need to move out of pick No. 27. Starks is tailor made to pair with Kyle Hamilton due to his ability to play the ball in the air, and too much was made out of the fact he’s not a violent, disruptive tackler.
Starks was No. 5 on the big board and fell due to positional value paired with some nitpicky concerns. The Ravens love to see other teams nitpick minor issues, because it means they get value — and they absolutely did.
REACH: Kelvin Banks — Saints (+21)
This was definitely a choice by New Orleans. If you take Kelvin Banks with the No. 9 pick you’re banking on him playing right tackle, but there’s a very real chance he’ll need to be kicked inside at the NFL level to guard.
If that happens the Saints made one of the biggest reaches in this draft when they could have had a gang of different difference makers they went after their pick. Banks was No. 30 on the big board and was a serious late riser in the process.
STEAL: Josh Simmons — Chiefs (-20)
Just an absolute dream scenario for Kansas City. Simmons would have been a Top 10 pick if not for some character concerns and an injury this season, and now the Chiefs landed one of the best offensive tackles in this draft at the end of the 1st round.
Even with the issues Simmons was No. 12 on the big board, just one spot behind Armand Membou who went with the No. 7 pick. You’re not supposed to be able to land guys like this late in the first round — but a lot of desperation for interior linemen at the top of this draft caused Simmons to fall. Kansas City pounced on that.
REACH: Tyler Booker — Cowboys (+19)
What’s with teams taking big, dumb risks on offensive linemen? Booker is a good player if he gets his hands on you, but he’s an old school guard who really might struggle against speedy defensive tackles.
Dallas seemingly had tunnel vision on offensive line after Tetairoa McMillan was picked and became hell-bent on taking one, even if it was a reach. Booker was 31st on the big board, figuring to be a pick tonight — and instead he went No. 12 overall. We’ll see in time if the Cowboys got another Zack Martin, or really whiffed this one.
STEAL: Jihaad Campbell — Eagles (-17)
Yup, Philly did it again. Year in, year out this franchise preys on desperation to find ludicrous talent in the back-end of the first round, and this pick was no different. Campbell was a guy who could have (and should have) been a Top 20 pick. He was 14th on the big board, and ended up falling to No. 31.
Campbell could be a violent, game-changing linebacker in the NFL who adds another facet to Philadelphia’s already stellar defense. It’s a brilliant move that keeps the cupboards stocked, and continues their stellar run.
REACH: Walter Nolen — Cardinals (+19)
Nolen loves to compare himself to Aaron Donald, and Arizona best hope this is accurate. I totally get why Jonathan Gannon would fall in love with a player in this mold, but the Cardinals definitely reached to get him.
Nolen was 35th on the big board, and no, he wouldn’t have been there by their 2nd round pick. That doesn’t mean you should over-reach to get a guy. Never, ever fall in love with a prospect to the point you ignore common sense. It feels like that’s what happened here.
STEAL: Tyler Warren — Colts (+9)
This isn’t quite the same caliber of steal, but when you’re talking about getting nine spots above value in the Top 15 it’s a massive jump. The draft couldn’t have gone better for Indianapolis who were always pegged to take a tight end, but probably never thought they had a chance of landing Warren without a trade up.
The No. 6 player on the big board, Warren is just an old-school, do everything tight end without many weaknesses. He’ll block, he’ll excel catching passes in the short-to-intermediate area, and he’ll be a franchise staple for a decade. Just a phenomenal pick, even if there isn’t a lot of excitement about how he plays the game. Warren isn’t a guy who captures the imagination, and that hurt him — but it’s the Colts’ gain.
