In a college basketball season loaded with high-end talent and juggernaut teams, the 2026 NCAA tournament could be defined by favorites rolling and a lack of major upsets.
Only seven lower seeds won during the first round in 2025. Arkansas, an underachieving-but-dangerous No. 10 seed, was the only double-digit seed to advance to last year’s Sweet 16. And once the tournament got beyond opening weekend, it was a bloodbath for underdogs.
The 2025 Final Four was filled with all four No. 1 seeds. The Elite Eight almost featured all four No. 2 seeds outside of No. 3 seed Texas Tech as the round’s lowest-seeded team.
With NIL and the transfer portal easily replenishing the best teams in college basketball this offseason, the 2026 NCAA tournament could see more of the same. Mostly favorites advancing and the top seeds dominating the proceedings. That’s how I more-or-less see things unfolding this season. It’s not very much fun to predict a chalky bracket. But the high-end talent of the 2025-26 season is too difficult to ignore and it feels like a year for favorites.
Top-seeded Duke was given no special favors in a particularly deep East Region. The Blue Devils should get past No. 8 seed Ohio State in the second round, so long as Buckeyes senior guard Bruce Thornton is contained. A matchup between Hall of Fame coaches could put Bill Self and No. 4 seed Kansas against Rick Pitino and No. 5 seed St. John’s. The Big East champion Red Storm feel stronger and more complete than last season’s No. 2 seed that was ousted early and should get past the Jayhawks to reach the Sweet 16.
Michigan State gets a favorable draw as a No. 3 seed and gets No. 11 seed South Florida — who upsets sputtering No. 6 seed Louisville in the opening round. Things could get interesting for No. 2 seed Connecticut if No. 7 seed UCLA is healthy in the second round. But UConn ultimately advances behind its balanced scoring against the uneven Bruins.
For the second weekend, Duke gets a considerable test from St. John’s but ultimately gets past the Red Storm in a defensive struggle. UConn and Michigan State should be one of the tournament’s more physical games before the Huskies’ advance in a close one. Duke meeting UConn is a dream East Region showcase of ACC champion against a Big East legacy program with a spot in the Final Four on the line. But the Blue Devils possess one of the nation’s most complete teams and boast the most consistent star in big man Cameron Boozer. Duke gets to Indianapolis despite a loaded regional in front of them.
Defending champion Florida was also dealt a tough draw in its quest to repeat. The top-seeded Gators get the benefit of two struggling teams in a possible second-round matchup and should get past No. 8 seed Clemson. In a second-round matchup with not much tournament legacy, No. 5 seed Vanderbilt eliminates No. 4 seed Nebraska — fresh off its first tournament win in program history.
Regularly blowing double-digit leads the last few weeks, No. 3 seed Illinois was given a generous draw thanks to No. 6 seed North Carolina’s injury to star Caleb Wilson. Complete with the nation’s best offense, the Fighting Illini get past No. 11 seed VCU after the Atlantic 10 champions upset the Tar Heels. Houston doesn’t get an easy matchup in the second round facing No. 7 seed Saint Mary’s but ultimately gets by the Gaels in what could be a sleeper second-round battle.
The Sweet 16 offers Florida a shot at revenge after Vanderbilt eliminated the Gators from the SEC tournament. In January, Florida outlasted the Commodores in a high-scoring affair in Nashville, which is how the Sweet 16 should play out as well. Getting a homecourt advantage as the local team, No. 2 seed Houston takes advantage of the setting and top-five defense to slow down Illinois. That sets up a nightmare road Elite Eight setting for Florida, with Houston taking down the Gators to reach another Final Four.
Arizona is 25 years removed from a Final Four and 11 years without an Elite Eight as the Wildcats look to take the next step after back-to-back Sweet 16 appearances. Matching up with tournament-tested No. 9 seed Utah State won’t be easy but Arizona is too balanced to falter the first weekend. Two teams on the rise battle in the second round when No. 4 seed Arkansas faces No. 5 seed Wisconsin. Both teams showed promising March upside during conference tournament week with the Razorbacks winning the SEC tournament and Wisconsin beating Illinois and pushing Michigan to the brink. The Badgers ultimately push forward thanks to their ability to win high-profile games.
A fascinating second-round West Coast matchup goes down with No. 3 seed Gonzaga facing No. 6 seed BYU. Although Gonzaga brings a top-ten defense, a lack of offensive firepower going against All-American forward AJ Dybantsa and the high-powered Cougars leads to the ‘Zags downfall. On the heels of a Big Ten tournament title, Purdue climbed into the two line and gets No. 10 seed Missouri, in St. Louis, for the second round. Despite playing in enemy territory, the Boilermakers make another Sweet 16.
Arizona and Wisconsin battling in the West Region brings back memories of some NCAA tournament wars between the two — notably the 2014 and 2015 Elite Eight. A third California-based second-weekend showdown goes Arizona’s way thanks to superior talent over the Badgers. Purdue has no trouble matching BYU’s firepower and tempo and reaches the Elite Eight in a high-scoring game. With a shot at the Final Four on the line, Arizona finally returns to the final weekend by slowing down Purdue’s offense.
Even with lackluster results in the Big Ten tournament, No. 1 seed Michigan is still a force. The Wolverines can slow down Robbie Avila and No. 9 seed Saint Louis’ offense in the second round. Things get interesting with No. 4 seed Alabama, playing without second-leading scorer Aden Holloway following his drug arrest and removal from the team, No. 12 seed Akron. The veteran Zips have the shooting and balance to upset No. 5 Texas Tech and gives problems to the Crimson Tide, becoming the only double-digit seed to make the second weekend.
Virginia is back in the NCAA tournament spotlight after a strong season in the ACC. Tennessee, however, carries more elite talent as the No. 6 seed Vols get past Virginia to move on. Iowa State is looking to carry a solid Big 12 tournament showing into March by taking down No. 7 seed Kentucky in the Round of 32.
The Sweet 16 sees Michigan running past upstart Akron while Iowa State carries past Tennessee. The Chicago crowd during the regional finals will be split between Michigan fans and Iowa State fans with the two well-traveled fan bases filling the United Center in what should be a fun atmosphere. In the end, Michigan survives a tight one with its depth and size advantage.
In another chalky Final Four filled with one and two seeds, Duke gets revenge against Houston in the first national semifinal, while Michigan takes down Arizona in the other. That sets up a national championship game that’s a rematch from Duke and Michigan’s fantastic regular season clash that saw the Blue Devils win a close game. Much like February’s game, Duke once again handles the Wolverines to claim another national championship in Indianapolis.
