The 2025-26 NBA season begins with a heavy championship favorite, a growing pack of potential contenders, and three teams that are clearly tanking for a loaded 2026 NBA Draft lottery. This feels like it has the potential to be one of the most exciting seasons in recent memory, and it begins with everyone chasing the Oklahoma City Thunder.
The Thunder have dynasty potential with the reigning MVP (who doubles as this year’s favorite) leading basketball’s best ‘big three.’ The Thunder were dominant on their way to 68 wins last season, but their playoff run was far less impressive even as it ended with a championship. No NBA team has won back-to-back titles since Kevin Durant was on the Warriors in 2017 and 2018. It’s possible the league could have a unique champion for the eighth straight year, a new record. It’s also possible a team like the Denver Nuggets or Golden State Warriors could win their second championship over this stretch and challenge OKC for the defining team of this era.
From the tankers to the contenders, every team has something fun to monitor this season. Let’s rank each team by their 2026 NBA championship chances entering the new season.
Wizards fans will have something kind of fun to watch even though the team will be horrible. I’m interested in Alex Sarr’s interior finishing, rookie Tre Johnson’s movement shooting, and if Cam Whitmore can finally have the breakout season I’ve been waiting for. Washington has a nice collection of young talent, but they are still missing their lead engine. The best way to find it is at the top of the 2026 draft, and this team is set up to maximize their lottery odds. One great prospect could change everything for the Wizards, but this team will have to endure a ton of losses along the way.
The Jazz have an elite young coach in Will Hardy, an All-Star caliber forward in Lauri Markkanen, and one of the game’s better young rim protectors in Walker Kessler. None of that will matter this season, because the Jazz are still clearly the worst team in the West. Utah is tanking by design to land the franchise player they’re missing, but they won’t need to rest healthy players this year to maximize their lottery odds. The Jazz just have so many young players throughout this rotation, and all of them are years away from their final form. Ace Bailey is the most promising prospect of the bunch, and his ability to get buckets without dribbling will be fun to track during the season. I like point guard Isaiah Collier and big man Kyle Filipowski well enough, and it’s possible Brice Sensabaugh has a breakout season as a bully-ball backcourt scorer. The Jazz just aren’t ready to take the next step yet, and that likely means a Markkanen trade and maybe even a Kessler trade are in the cards.
The Nets don’t own their first-round draft pick in 2027 (the Rockets have swap rights), so they need to make the tank count this year. Brooklyn has five first-round rookies who all seem poised to play real minutes this season, and that should keep the losses flowing even with some decent veterans (Michael Porter Jr., Cam Thomas, Terance Mann, Nic Claxton) on the roster. The Nets will likely let the rookies handle the ball this year, and that’s going to lead to some exciting moments with tons of mistakes along the way. I really didn’t like their draft haul, but if Egor Demin’s shot looks good, Drake Powell starts to emerge as an athletic two-way wing, and Danny Wolf’s jumbo playmaking shows signs of translating, there could be some hope for the future here. The Nets are like the Jazz and Wizards in that they really need a top-3 pick this year. It’s almost certain at least one of these teams will come away disappointed. Brooklyn has to pray it’s not them.
I wrote that the Hornets could be one of the league’s biggest surprise teams in this column last year, and they made me look stupid by being terrible again with LaMelo Ball barely playing because of wrist and ankle injuries. It feels like it’s now-or-never for Ball entering Year 6, but he needs to stay healthy before he can roar back to All-Star form. Ball was horribly undisciplined last season when he was on the court, and that leaves plenty of low-hanging fruit in his game to clean up. If it happens, he can still be one of the best on-ball creators in the league with a gifted dribble/pass/shoot skill set for a 6’8 point guard. The Hornets have almost as much riding on Brandon Miller, 2023’s No. 2 overall pick, as they do with Ball. Miller missed much of last season with a wrist injury, and still needs to add strength to improve his paint finishing. I think Kon Knueppel was a home run pick for the Hornets at No. 4 this year, but it will probably take some time for him to find his fit around Ball and Miller. With no real center on this roster, it’s highly possible the Hornets pivot into a tanking team again with a slow start.
The Pelicans can’t tank because they traded their unprotected 2026 first-round pick to the Atlanta Hawks to move up for Derik Queen. That could look like one of the worst trades of the decade if Zion Williamson misses tons of time with injuries again. Williamson remains the franchise player here despite missing more games than he’s played since being drafted No. 1 overall in 2019. He looks slimmer and fitter than ever heading into this season, and when he has been on the court, he’s played at an All-NBA level. I love the fit of Williamson next to Herb Jones and Trey Murphy III, but the rest of this roster doesn’t feel very complementary. Jeremiah Fears and Queen will need time to adjust to the league as rookies, and the spacing is going to be funky with Williamson, Jones, and newly signed center Kevon Looney sharing the floor. The Pelicans have a decent bench and they could have an elite player if Williamson finally puts it all together, but the West is so unforgiving that I can’t be too optimistic.
Devin Booker is still here, and his bank account is a lot bigger after signing a comically fat extension over the summer. The Suns are determined to build around Booker, but it feels like an impossible task with limited cap flexibility and no control of their future first-round picks until 2032. Kevin Durant and Bradley Beal are gone after a failed two-year run, and they’ve been replaced with Dillon Brooks, Jalen Green, and Mark Williams. I just can’t see that lineup winning many games in a loaded Western Conference this year. The Suns’ misery will be great for the Memphis Grizzlies, who own their first-round pick. Any hope for the Suns rests on the broad shoulders of No. 10 overall pick Khaman Maluach. I love Maluach’s long-term potential, but it’s going to be a long road to get there. The Suns just don’t have the horses to compete around Booker this year.
Another rebuild is coming for the Kings, but they’re still in denial about it. Domantas Sabonis will put up huge numbers, but his impact on winning will again be questioned. Reuniting Zach LaVine and DeMar DeRozan after their disappointing Bulls tenure feels like a crime against basketball. Keegan Murray is already out with a thumb injury, and the front office spent the whole offseason trying to trade Malik Monk. Russell Westbrook isn’t saving this team. With Scott Perry installed as GM, another teardown feels inevitable. I’m sorry, Kings fan. Was the Beam Team really only two years ago?
The Bulls have finished with 39, 40, and 39 wins the last three years, and they are probably going to do it again this season. At least Chicago will play a more exciting brand of basketball after head coach Billy Donovan supercharged the offense behind Josh Giddey’s hit-ahead passing, Matas Buzelis’ transition finishing, and Coby White’s pull-up shooting. The Bulls may finish No. 1 in pace this year, but I’m skeptical it will lead to efficient offense (it didn’t last year, when they finished No. 20 offensively). Isaac Okoro is the only real new piece here, and while his addition improves the defense, it’s going to cramp the halfcourt offense to add another non-shooter (expect for the corners) next to Giddey. Nikola Vucevic almost certainly isn’t going to shoot 40 percent from three again, and his defense continues to slip with age when he doesn’t have strong point-of-attack defenders in front of him. The Bulls do have sneaky good depth, led by Ayo Dosunmu, who is poised for a big season entering a contract year. Chicago ended last year 15-5, thriving with their uptempo style when everyone else was tanking or resting their starters. I wouldn’t be surprised if it happened again. Buzelis feels primed for a breakout season, White and Dosunmu should be a lovable backcourt combination, and rookie Noa Essengue’s development will be fun to track. All roads still lead to something like 39 wins, though.
The Sixers could theoretically compete to win the East this year in a best case scenario, but I’m just not buying it. It essentially all comes down to Joel Embiid, the one-time MVP who was scoring like Wilt Chamberlain last time he was healthy, but that was 20 months ago. I just don’t trust Embiid to be both frequently available and operating at his best level, and because of that the Sixers’ chances feel dead on arrival. Paul George is every bit as injury prone as Embiid at this point, and age-35, he’s much closer to the end of his career. There’s nothing resembling a starting-caliber power forward on the roster, and I still don’t think there’s enough shooting barring an explosive sophomore season from Jared McCain, who is already out with a torn thumb. Tyrese Maxey is awesome, rookie No. 3 pick V.J. Edgecombe will force turnovers on defense and have some crazy highlights on offense, and McCain looked like last year’s best rookie until he got hurt. The young talent is pretty exciting here up and including 25-year-old unrestricted free agent to be Quentin Grimes, but the downside feels significant, and the front court holes are too big to ignore. Philly could make me look really dumb for ranking them this low, but I’ve been burned by believing in the Sixers too many times.
The Pacers historically do not tank, but they might never have a better opportunity to pivot into one than this year without Tyrese Haliburton. Haliburton drove last year’s stunning NBA Finals run, but he’s out for the year with the torn Achilles he suffered in Game 7. Without their point guard, Indiana can’t keep the same identity as a high-tempo, low-turnover team with tons of shooting. The offense will be reworked through Pascal Siakam, and it will be interesting to see how the increased usage affects his defense as he ages. Andrew Nembhard steps into a starring role on offense, and he could deliver a big year if he shoots like he did in the playoffs (46.5 percent from three) rather than the regular season (29 percent). The Pacers aren’t just missing Haliburton, they’re also missing Myles Turner, who signed with the Milwaukee Bucks over the offseason. There will be more room for players like Bennedict Mathurin, Jarace Walker, Jay Huff, and Isaiah Jackson to pop, but I’m skeptical any of them can really drive winning. This is a true gap year for the Pacers, but we’ll never forget the thrill they gave us in the 2025 Playoffs.
The Heat only won 37 games last year, snuck into the playoffs via the play-in tournament, and then got absolutely destroyed by the Cavs in the first round. I’m not optimistic their fate will be any better this year. Tyler Herro leads the offense coming off an All-Star season, but he’s already out after foot surgery. Bam Adebayo remains one of the league’s better centers, but he quietly regressed offensively last year and will always be undersized for the position. Having Andrew Wiggins and Norman Powell all year will help balance out lineups and add some much needed athletic explosiveness, and 6’10 forward Nikola Jović is a trendy pick for breakout lists. The guy I’m really excited about is Kel’el Ware, a super athletic 7-footer with real shooting potential. Head coach Erik Spoelstra can always be trusted to develop the young players and push the right buttons, but I’m just not sure he has the talent to work his magic this year. There’s certainly a pathway for a top-6 Eastern Conference playoff bid if Adebayo bounces back, Powell and Wiggins turn in vintage seasons, and one or two of the young players take a leap, I just feel like the downside here is every bit as likely.
19. Portland Trail Blazers
The Blazers appear to be giving up the lottery game entering this season. Portland traded for Jrue Holiday to try to make a playoff run in the Western Conference, and he’ll be part of what could be one of the league’s toughest defensive units. Portland had the league’s No. 4 defense after the All-Star break last year, and it’s only going to keep improving with fearsome rim protector Donovan Clingan entering his second season, and versatile defensive forward Toumani Camara coming off a Second-Team All-Defense campaign. I’m more concerned about Portland’s offense given the way Holiday took a step back on that end last season. Portland is dying for Scoot Henderson or Shaedon Sharpe to breakout, but Henderson is already out with a torn hamstring. As much as I like the idea of Deni Avdija leading the offense while the defense dominates, the Blazers just don’t have a lot of margin for error in the West if the offense doesn’t improve rapidly. Hey, at least Yang Hansen will be fun. It would be fitting if this is the year Portland cashes some lottery luck now that they’re actually trying to win.
The Raptors are ready to take a leap up the Eastern Conference standings, even if their front office feels like the only true believers of this core. Toronto has a ton of money and years tied up in Scottie Barnes, Brandon Ingram, Immanuel Quickley, and Jakob Poeltl. Add in R.J. Barrett, rookie stud Collin Murray-Boyles, Gradey Dick, Ja’Kobe Walter, and Sandro Mamukelashvili, and there is some talent here if the pieces prove they can fit together. The worry is that this team just won’t have enough spacing or three-point shooting with Ingram and Barnes preferring to operate from midrange and Murray-Boyles being a non-shooter to this point. There’s a lot resting on Quickley’s shoulders coming off an injury-riddled season, because he’s the only real on-ball creator and pull-up shooter in the lineup. The Raptors should win some games in the East just off raw talent, but I’m skeptical the main pieces here make each other better, and that’s why it’s hard to get too optimistic.
It’s hard to remember now, but the Grizzlies were sitting in No. 2 in the West for much of last season before an epic collapse triggered an identity crisis. Memphis replaced its head coach, traded Desmond Bane, and is trying to thread the needle of competing for a playoff berth while still being able to land a premium lottery pick after acquiring the rights to the Suns’ first-rounder in the Bane trade. I would believe in the mission more if the roster wasn’t already weighed down by injuries. Zach Edey and Jaren Jackson Jr. will both miss the start of the year recovering from surgery, and Morant is already dealing with an ankle sprain. There’s still a really good collection of young pieces here — Jaylen Wells, rookie Cedric Coward, Vince Williams, and GG Jackson among them — and players like Santi Aldama and free agent signing Ty Jerome could thrive in new roles. I have a lot of respect for the way Memphis’ front office goes about things in a small market, but this version of the Grizzlies doesn’t feel as intimidating as it should. If they add a top lottery pick via Phoenix, the Grizzlies will be back fast. Until then, I need to see Edey and Jackson healthy before I really believe in this roster.
Is Jayson Tatum actually going to play this season after suffering a torn Achilles in the Eastern Conference semifinals? It seems insane to me, but Tatum is already running and dunking, and clearly wants to give it a go. This Boston team sure seems built for a gap year while Tatum rests and recovers if you ask me. This might be one of the worst front courts in the league after Al Horford, Kristaps Porzingis, and Luke Kornet departed in free agency, leaving Neemias Queta, Chris Boucher, Luka Garza, and a lot of question marks. I understand the logic that Jaylen Brown and Derrick White are just too good to fail, and it’s possible Payton Pritchard puts his name in All-Star consideration with a bigger role. Even if Tatum comes back, I don’t think the Celtics have any shot at winning the East, so to me it makes it all moot. Finishing in the lottery and with a crack at another potential young star should be in the Celtics’ best long-term interest, but it’s hard to do that with championship-caliber players like these.
Is this Giannis Antetokounmpo’s last year in Milwaukee? It sure feels like it, but the superstar forward has tip-toed around that line before without crossing it. The pressure is on the Bucks to show Giannis they deserve his loyalty, but this roster doesn’t inspire much confidence. Damian Lillard was waived, Brook Lopez left in free agency, and the lone major addition to the roster is Myles Turner. Turner gives Giannis another stretch five with some shot blocking ability, but he’s going to need a career-year as a shooter for the Bucks to have enough firepower around their leader. Milwaukee is ready to turn the team over to Point Giannis and surround him with shooting, which is their best bet to cover up the lack of dependable halfcourt creators on this roster. The Bucks badly need one or two of their young guards (Kevin Porter Jr., AJ Green, Ryan Rollins, Cole Anthony) to pop, and they need to hope Kyle Kuzma can’t possibly be as bad as he was for them last year again. If Giannis stays healthy and productive, a middle of the table run in the East is certainly possible, and maybe even something a little better than that. The downside here is just terrifying if Antetokounmpo misses any real time, or somehow gets traded.
Cooper Flagg is just about the only person who could possibly bring Mavs fans back after the unforgivable Luka Doncic trade. Flagg is somehow an even better long-term asset than Doncic in my eyes, and I really wouldn’t be shocked if he garners All-Star consideration as a rookie despite being the youngest player in the league. There will be an adjustment period at first just like there was at Duke, but Flagg is too big, athletic, smart, and determined to take his lumps for a year. He’s going to have the ball in his hands, and he already has an All-NBA caliber teammate to pass to in Anthony Davis. Davis’ availability is a major question every year, but if he can stay healthy, there are few better bigs alive. The backcourt here is another major question mark with Kyrie Irving likely out for the year as he recovers from ACL surgery. D’Angelo Russell and Flagg will handle the ball handling duties, while Klay Thompson, Max Christie, and P.J. Washington help out on the wings. I think it would be smart to align on Flagg’s timeline given that Dallas already has future draft picks out the door, and that means trading Davis and Irving. I don’t think that’s going to happen yet, and Nico Harrison’s delusion just might pay off when Irving gets back, because Flagg really is that good.
Anything is possible in Victor Wembanyama’s third season. A Defensive Player of the Year award seems like a certainty if he plays 65 games, an MVP run is possible, and the first playoff trip of his career should be in the cards. If Wemby is a top-five, or even top-three, player in the league to start the season, it’s hard to imagine the Spurs still languishing outside of the playoff picture. De’Aaron Fox should be the best teammate of Wemby’s career, but it’s certainly troubling that he’s still dealing with a hamstring injury. Dylan Harper might be ready to help steer the ship right away, after the Spurs somehow came away with the No. 2 pick in the draft lottery. I’m less bullish on Stephon Castle because of his shooting woes, but San Antonio is counting on him to be an impact player after winning Rookie of the Year. Adding Luke Kornet could be a sneaky great free agent signing, and I’m always waiting for Devin Vassell to take another step forward. The Spur’ lack of shooting around Wembanyama is frustrating and potentially debilitating, but this is still the most talented team of his NBA career. Wembanyama is ready to take another giant leap forward, and he’s dragging this franchise up with him.
Cade Cunningham morphed into an All-NBA player for the Pistons last year, and in the process they jumped from 14 to 44 wins. Cunningham thrived in better spacing, and it will be Detroit’s challenge to maintain that while still putting their best talent on the floor. The Pistons remain flushed with former lottery picks after years of losing, and it’s totally possible this team has another leap in them if one or more start to blossom. Jalen Duren doesn’t turn 22 years old until Nov., and he already has 2.5 seasons of starting experience, plus a promising playoff run last year to build on. Duren needs to improve defensively to give Detroit the interior anchor it needs, but he at least he has some talented wing defenders around him. Ausar Thompson is on everyone’s breakout player lists this year, and he just might be the best perimeter defender in the world this season. I’m even higher on Ron Holland’s long-term impact, but his shaky three-point shot doesn’t bring out the best in Cunningham right now. Jaden Ivey is also back and could breakout after injuries took away an encouraging start to last season. The Pistons still need the young guys to produce because they did lose some key pieces last season, including indispensable high-volume sniper Malik Beasley and point guard Dennis Schroder. Duncan Robinson and Caris LeVert will pick up the slack a little bit, but there’s risk this team takes a small step back if Duren/Thompson/Ivey/Holland stagnate. I’m still in on the Pistons’ future, but I’m not quite ready to say they’re winning a playoff series just yet.
The Hawks have been a play-in team in every year since their charmed 2021 Eastern Conference Finals run, but it feels like they finally have the right mix around Trae Young to really take a step forward this season. Atlanta has stocked the roster with length and athleticism, and now it’s on Young to make it all hum with his brilliant passing and hopefully trustworthy shooting. Jalen Johnson returns from injury and could emerge as this team’s best player. Johnson is a powerful transition force with impressive passing and ball handling ability for such a big, athletic forward. Zaccharie Risacher, 2024’s No. 1 overall pick, should continue to hone his 3-and-D skill set in year two, while Dyson Daniels, one of last year’s biggest breakout players, remains an elite defender and transition force. Now Young finally has a stretch five with the arrival of Kristaps Porzingis, provided this is the rare year where he can actually stay healthy. I love Atlanta’s bench led by Nickeil Alexander-Walker and Onyeka Okongwu, and it’s wild that they own the Pelicans’ unprotected 2026 first-round pick that could deliver a new star. Young is in a contract year, and there’s so much pressure on him to make this roster go. I’m buying the vision.
Luka Doncic turns 27 years old before the playoffs. He’s ready to win championships right now, but the Lakers don’t have a championship roster around him. Doncic takes center stage in LA this season with LeBron James — currently out with sciatica — being reduced to a true supporting role for the first-time in his life. Doncic could lead the league in usage rate this year, and he’s going to make a run at MVP if he can maintain both his health and his newer, slimmer physique. The Lakers have some nice pieces around Doncic’s all-world creation ability, but the roster isn’t all the way there. Austin Reaves is a shifty guard with microwave scoring ability, but it could be hard to fit him next to Doncic defensively. Deandre Ayton will be an upgrade at center, but there’s a reason why the Blazers bought him out of his last contract. Rui Hachimura is a reliable 3-and-D wing, Jake LaRavia could pop in a reserve role, and it will be fascinating to see if Marcus Smart has anything left in the tank. LeBron will still have his moments when he comes back, but on the brink of his 41st birthday, his All-NBA streak is probably over, and now it’s about being his best for the playoffs. Anything is possible through Luka Magic, and if nothing else, the Lakers will learn what type of pieces they need around Doncic long-term as they navigate through this year.
The Aspiration scandal continues to hang over the Clippers, but at this point the expectation is that the NBA’s investigation will drag out most of the season. The newfound interest in Kawhi Leonard comes at a time when he’s actually starting the season healthy, and could be primed for a big year if he’s resolved to stay on the floor. At 34 years old, Leonard remains a takeover scorer and an impactful defender in high leverage situations, plus we already know the Clippers are pretty good without him. Los Angeles has an elite defense to fall back on helmed by Ivicia Zubac, one of the game’s most underrated big men. The challenge for head coach Ty Lue will be trotting out his new offensive toys — John Collins, Bradley Beal — without compromising the defense. One addition that will help defensively is Brook Lopez, now 37 years old, who should give them quality backup center minutes and a new stretch five look offensively. James Harden still has plenty of punch even at age-36, and he’ll once again be depended on to keep the offense humming as a playmaker and pull-up three-point threat. The Clippers are going to be a tough out again just like last year, but you’d have to be a fool to trust Harden’s playoff production and Leonard’s health and availability deep into the season. The Clippers are good, but they’re holding onto that position weakly.
The Warriors have four future Hall of Fame inductees in the starting lineup, and they’re trying to prove they can still compete for a championship in the twilight of their respective careers. Golden State looked like a juggernaut after trading for Jimmy Butler at the deadline last year, compiling a 23-7 record with him in the lineup while finishing No. 3 in net-rating after the All-Star break. The Warriors knocked out the No. 2 seed Rockets in the first round, but their run ended when Stephen Curry suffered a series-ending injury in round two. The same scenario is going to be on the table again this year: this team will be really good when it’s healthy, but injuries or age-related decline always loom when your best players are in their mid-to-late 30s. Butler’s ability to get to the free throw line, force turnovers, and pressure the paint as a ball handler is a wonderful fix next to Curry’s incredible off-ball movement shooting. Al Horford joins as the roster’s only real addition over the summer, and his mix of shooting, quick decision-making as a passer, and ability to switch defensively should be a perfect fit in Steve Kerr’s system … if he can avoid decline at age-39. Draymond Green is elite defensively, but his offense was particularly ghastly last year (53 percent true shooting). The Warriors need one of Brandin Podziemski, Moses Moody, or Jonathan Kuminga to take a leap, which they’ve waited on for 3-4 years at this point. It’s all about getting to the postseason healthy and fresh for Golden State, but avoiding the play-in tournament sure would be nice, too.
Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner are two of the best young forwards in the NBA, and the Magic are finally putting them in position to succeed. Orlando traded four first-round picks for Desmond Bane over the offseason to fix what was one of the worst three-point shooting teams in NBA history relative to era. Bane is a perfect fit: he’s one of the league’s best shooters joining a team that shot under 32 percent from three last year (dead-last in the league), and he will keep an elite defense humming on the other end of the floor. Jalen Suggs is good enough to make this a “big four” in the starting lineup, but he still hasn’t been cleared after knee surgery in Jan. The Magic have some good role players around their foundational pieces: Anthony Black (defense) and Tristan Da Silva (shooting) are young players with signature skills, Mo Wagner adds a versatile offensive big man once he recovers from a torn ACL, and Wendell Carter Jr. is a solid center who can do a little bit of everything. Orlando’s offense has been terrible basically every year since they traded Dwight Howard in 2012, but there’s too much talent for that to persist now that the spacing should be better. I like Orlando as a darkhorse NBA Finals team this year, but it will only happen if Banchero and Wagner can actually make each other better.
6. Minnesota Timberwolves
Anthony Edwards and an elite defense has been Minnesota’s formula for back-to-back Western Conference Finals runs. The Wolves’ floor feels as high as any team in the second tier of title contention, but it’s fair to wonder if they have another step left to take. Edwards is already one of the seven or so best players in the league, but he still has so much room to grow as a mid-range scorer and decision-maker as a passer. Julius Randle should only be more comfortable playing alongside Rudy Gobert in their second season together, and he proved last year that his physical driving and interior scoring can work in the playoffs. Donte DiVincenzo could replace Mike Conley Jr. in the starting or closing lineup as one of the game’s better volume shooters, and a pair of second-year players — Rob Dillingham and Terrence Shannon Jr. — will be counted on to take a leap and become trustworthy contributors. The Wolves either need to get back to being the best defense in the league — they slipped from No. 1 in 2024 to No. 6 in 2025 — or take the next step offensively. I’m not sure either of those outcomes is likely, but if nothing else, the Wolves will put themselves in the mix to potentially take advantage of any lucky breaks in their playoff path again.
The Rockets shocked the league by earning the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference Playoffs last year, but their first round elimination to the Warriors showed all the ways they still need to improve. Enter Kevin Durant, one of the greatest shooters and scorers in league history, to help open the floor and knock down shots for what was a floundering halfcourt offense. It’s a shame that as soon as KD arrived, Fred VanVleet exited with a torn ACL that will sideline him all season. Houston feels a guard short after his injury, and once again a little light on shooting. There’s a ton of pressure on 2024’s No. 3 overall pick Reed Sheppard to produce in VanVleet’s absence after what was essentially a redshirt year, and there’s also a bigger opportunity for Amen Thompson to shine as a ball handler. Thompson could become a first-time All-Star this season after breaking out last year. He might be the most athletic player in the league, and he’s already proven he can be great without a reliable jump shot. I’m even higher on Alperen Sengun, who I have as a darkhorse MVP candidate this year. The Rockets are just about the biggest team in the league this year, and that size should overwhelm smaller teams throughout the regular season. How Houston scales up to the playoffs will again be the real question.
The Cavaliers aren’t sneaking up on anyone this year after stunning the league with 64 wins last season. Injuries and Tyrese Haliburton’s greatness eventually caught up to the Cavs in the second round, and the majority of the rotation returns to see if this is the year they can finally breakthrough. Donovan Mitchell is coming of a First-Team All-NBA season, Evan Mobley is the reigning Defensive Player of the Year, and Darius Garland made his second All-Star team. Add in Jarrett Allen, and the Cavs have four studs are who entering their fourth year together. Head coach Kenny Atkinson proved he could push all the right buttons during the regular season, but the real questions are waiting for the playoffs. Can Garland and Mitchell survive defensively in the postseason? Do the Cavs need to move on from Allen, slide Moblely to the five, and get more shooting on the floor? Can Lonzo Ball, the team’s big offseason addition, actually stay healthy enough to help? It’s NBA Finals or bust for both the Cavs and the Knicks, and at least one of them is going to end this season very disappointed.
Fifty-one wins and a trip to the Eastern Conference Finals wasn’t enough to save Tom Thibodeau’s job, and now it’s on Mike Brown to lead the most pressure-packed Knicks season since Patrick Ewing’s heyday. New York brings back perhaps the most complete seven-man rotation in the league with Jalen Brunson, Mikal Bridges, OG Anunoby, Karl-Anthony Towns, Mitchell Robinson, Josh Hart, and Miles McBride. The bench should be better too after signing Guerschon Yabusele and Jordan Clarkson over the offseason. The pieces are in place for the Knicks to make the NBA Finals, but Brown has to prove he can push the right buttons. Benching Hart for Robinson is a good start, and it will give New York more size and shot blocking inside to make up for Towns’ defensive deficiencies. Brown is saying all the right things about getting Brunson off the ball more frequently, but I’ll believe Bridges and Anunoby are soaking up more creation responsibilities when I actually see it. The big question here is the same as it was in their doomed conference finals series against the Pacers: can KAT and Brunson defend well enough to stay on the floor together when it really matters? If not, this Knicks team is doomed when it comes to meeting their lofty goals, and more bold moves are probably in store next summer. It’s put up or shut up time for the Knicks. Anything less than a Finals berth is a failure.
Nikola Jokic has been the best player in the NBA for last five years, and he’s still firmly in his prime at age-30. It’s wild to consider that Jokic has never had an All-Star teammate in Denver, but at least he can say he has a vastly improved supporting cast as he enters the 2025-26 season. Denver’s ‘two timelines’ plan is dead, and now veterans Cam Johnson, Bruce Brown, Tim Hardaway Jr., and Jonas Valanciunas arrive as the reinforcements needed to get Denver over the hump. Aaron Gordon took a big leap as a three-point shooter last year, and if that sustains, the Nuggets will be even tougher to defend. Johnson should be an upgrade on Michael Porter Jr. in multiple ways after being one of the league’s most efficient scorers last year with Cam Thomas passing him the ball, but his own injury history is a little scary. Jamal Murray has tons of pressure on his shoulders to prove he can still be the best ball handler on a championship team as he turns 29 years old before the playoffs. The rotation is better and deeper, and Jokic is greatness personified. There’s a scenario where the Thunder win 70+ regular season games and Jokic conquers them in the playoffs, giving him his own version of LeBron’s 2016 NBA Finals moment. I wouldn’t count him out.
The NBA hasn’t had a repeat champion since Kevin Durant was with the Warriors, but this season still feels like the Thunder vs. the field at the onset. Oklahoma City was absurdly dominant in ripping off 68 regular season wins last year, but they benefitted from injury luck to survive two Game 7s in the playoffs. Did the postseason expose the flaws in the Thunder roster, or were they merely a sign of a young team experiencing growing pains in its first title run? The entire rotation is back to defend the title, led by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the reigning MVP and the best guard in the game. SGA’s mid-range brilliance and foul-drawing ability is ideal for the playoff gauntlet, and he’s flanked by two All-NBA co-stars if everything goes right. Jalen Williams is becoming an all-time great sidekick even as he played through a wrist injury last year. Chet Holmgren can be one of the league’s elite defenders, and his stretch five skill set on offense is almost as important to the Thunder’s big picture. Alex Caruso, Isaiah Hartenstein, Cason Wallace, and Lu Dort return as some of the game’s best role players, and rookie Nikola Topic could give the second unit a boost once he returns from surgery. The Thunder’s all-time great defense isn’t going anywhere, and neither is SGA’s tough shot-making. The Thunder are only getting better, and that should terrify the rest of the NBA.
