NBA Playoffs’ final 8 teams ranked by their 2025 championship chances

The first-round of the 2025 NBA Playoffs proved the difference between the regular season and the postseason. The games were slower and more physical, with offensive rebounding and the turnover battle often being spotlighted as possessions came at a premium. Depth and youth also reigned supreme, with older and thinner rosters failing to keep up with the league’s new guard.

The first-round gave us two Game 7s, iconic moments like Jalen Brunson’s series-clinching three over Ausar Thompson, and dominant performances from the top seeds. Now, eight teams are left still chasing a spot in the 2025 NBA Finals and the opportunity to hoist the Larry O’Brien trophy.

We are down to the final four teams in both the East and the West. At first glance, the second-round doesn’t appear as competitive as the first-round. Let’s rank the eight teams still standing by who has the best chance to win the 2025 NBA championship.

8. New York Knicks

The Knicks advanced past the upstart Detroit Pistons in six games in the first-round, but they weren’t overly impressive in doing so. New York’s offense only scored 111 points per 100 possessions for the series (which would have ranked No. 23 during the regular season), and looked a bit one-dimensional revolving around Brunson’s isolation game. The Knicks have the talent to come up with a more diverse offensive attack, starting with getting Karl-Anthony Towns more involved and incorporating at least some creation opportunities for Mikal Bridges. The Knicks’ offense is going to need to be so, so much better to pull off the upset against the Boston Celtics in round two, but the other end of the court could give them just as much trouble. Towns’ shaky rim protection will be under duress against Boston’s whirling drive-and-kick attack, and Brunson will be targeted on switches. There’s also a worry that the Knicks’ starters could begin to breakdown physically after carrying huge minutes throughout the regular season and first-round. It feels like there’s a better Knicks team in this roster somewhere, but it’s unlikely to come out this season.

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7. Golden State Warriors

The Warriors were on the brink of winning their first-round series against the Rockets in five games, but instead it turned into a seven-game slugfest that tested the limits of their ability on both ends. Golden State’s size limitations up front were evident against Houston’s double-big lineup, and the Minnesota Timberwolves will present similar problems in round two. Golden State only escaped because Buddy Hield caught fire in Game 7, and the role players will need to continue to deliver for the Warriors to pull off another upset in the second round. Head coach Steve Kerr knows he has three core players in Steph Curry, Draymond Green, and Jimmy Butler who are all excellent in their roles, but he’s still trying combinations around them to find the right mix. A player like Brandin Podziemski feels crucial in the Wolves series to add another element of shot-making and defensive playmaking, and it might be time to commit to Kevon Looney to help keep Minnesota off the offensive glass. The Butler trade saved Golden State’s season, and he can again be a swing factor in the Wolves series if he’s at his best offensively. The matchups and rest favor Minnesota, but we should know better than to count out the Warriors as long as they still have Curry.

6. Denver Nuggets

Nikola Jokic did everything for his teammates during the regular season to carry Denver to the No. 3 seed in the West. In the first-round, his teammates returned the favor. The Nuggets’ role players saved the day against the Clippers, with Christian Braun, Russell Westbrook, and Aaron Gordon delivering big performances in Game 7 and throughout the series. Jokic was uncharacteristically unspectacular offensively, but did raise his level of play defensively from the regular season. While Denver slugged it out with the Clippers, the Thunder were at home resting after their first-round sweep. The Thunder are the fresher, deeper team heading into the round two matchup. It feels like it will take the absolute best effort from the Nuggets to keep the series close. Denver should feel great about winning a series with some of their younger pieces showing improvement, but keeping this season alive against top-seeded OKC is a Herculean task. Miracles are possible through Jokic, and if the role players stay hot and the defense can stay locked in, Denver can talk itself into having a chance.

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5. Indiana Pacers

The Pacers outclassed the Bucks in five games in a series that was so uncompetitive it’s widely expected to spell the end of the Giannis Antetokounmpo era in Milwaukee. The Pacers’ offense looked fantastic in scoring 117.8 points per 100 possessions (which would have ranked No. 5 during the regular season), but they can do more than just win a track meet. The Pascal Siakam trade has helped give Indiana more size and more defensive backbone, in the process making them a balanced team instead of one that relied heavily on its offense. The matchup with the Cleveland Cavaliers in round two will show how close Indiana really is the top of the Eastern Conference. So far, so good: the Pacers blasted the Cavs from the three-point line to steal Game 1, and their defense was just impressive limiting a fantastic Cleveland offense was that was missing Darius Garland. Tyrese Haliburton’s magnetic cross-court passing and ability to avoid turnovers sets up plenty of scoring opportunities, and the shooters will need to stay hot after drilling 39.3 percent of their threes against the Bucks. For as much as Indiana has improved defensively, slowing down the Cavs is a tall of a task, but it’s a lot easier if Garland is out or hobbled. The Pacers’ won a shootout in Game 1, and cranking up the pace and the three-point looks might be their best bet to win the series.

4. Minnesota Timberwolves

The Wolves looked super convincing in their five-game series win over the Lakers where they dominated the offensive glass, avoided turnovers, and decidedly had the best player in the series in Anthony Edwards. Edwards’ decision-making was just as impressive as his shot-making, picking apart the Lakers traps and getting his own scoring going without forcing it. Edwards might be turning the corner into a top-five player, and the defense is still very good behind him. Julius Randle and Rudy Gobert each had a statement series with bully ball the Lakers couldn’t match. Minnesota’s size and physicality advantage will continue against another older team in the Warriors in the second round. The Wolves should again have a huge advantage on the offensive glass, and it will be on Gobert to make himself useful enough offensively to punish Golden State’s small ball looks. Minnesota has enough long-armed defenders to make life miserable for the Warriors’ offense, but Steph Curry and Jimmy Butler always find a way. If Edwards can continue to make the right reads and the role players like Naz Reid and Nickeil Alexander-Walker continue to step up, the Wolves should be back in the Western Conference Finals once again. The Wolves have a combination of physicality and depth that is built to win in the playoffs, and they sure seem to be peaking at the right time.

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3. Cleveland Cavaliers

The Cavs won their first-round series against the Heat by 122 points, the biggest margin in playoff history. Cleveland’s No. 1 offense kept cooking in the playoffs, scoring an absurd 137.2 points per 100 possessions for the series against a top-10 regular season defense in Miami. Only one thing went wrong for the Cavs in round one, and it’s already impacting them in round two: Darius Garland sprained his toe, an injury that would likely keep him out multiple weeks if it happened during the regular season. The Cavs missed Garland’s shot-creation and playmaking badly in their Game 1 loss to the Pacers. Ty Jerome looked a lot more human in a bigger role than he has cooking bench units, and the offense just never really fired on all cylinders the way it does with Garland. Even if Garland returns for Game 2, it’s unclear how effective he’ll be with this injury for a guard that relies on his shiftiness. Still, Cleveland can win this series by dominating the front court matchups and evening out the disparity from the three-point line in Game 1. This looks like the best series of the second round with two high-powered offenses going at each other. Cleveland should have the advantage, but it’s a different ball game with Garland hurt.

2. Boston Celtics

The Celtics were just way too good for the Magic even without being in top shape. Jayson Tatum played an incredible series despite suffering a wrist injury that caused him to miss Game 2. Jrue Holiday missed the last three games with a hamstring strain. Jaylen Brown entered the playoffs with a knee bruise, but had a productive series. Kristaps Porzingis was one of the few Celtics who was healthy, but he got lost in the flow of the offense. Orlando was never going to have enough shooting to matchup with the Celtics, but part of that is because Boston’s level on both ends of the floor is so hard to match. With a Knicks matchup looming, the Celtics’ versatility will again come in handy. Expect to see Tatum guarding Towns for long stretches while switching ball screens. Porzingis provides the type of rim protection the Knicks’ defense is lacking, and Boston’s bench also an easy advantage over the New York’s. If the Celtics are healthy, this is an elite team that is highly capable of back-to-back title runs. A series with the Knicks should be closer to five games than seven.

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1. Oklahoma City Thunder

The Thunder’s first-round sweep of the Memphis Grizzlies didn’t just fortify their status as the championship favorites: it also gave them a second long layoff of rest before round two. OKC advanced with ease despite the likely league MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander not playing his best until Game 4. The Thunder’s depth showed out again, with Alex Caruso’s rugged defense powering their huge Game 3 comeback, and Isaiah Joe, Aaron Wiggins, and Cason Wallace filling the cracks around the stars. Denver will present a new set of challenges, but the Thunder made moves last summer with this series in mind. Isaiah Hartenstein won’t shutdown Jokic because no one can, but he can hold his own in that matchup better than most centers. Chet Holmgren can terrorize the Nuggets offense as a roaming rim protector, and he just hit 42.3 percent of his threes last series on the other end. Jalen Williams also seems locked in right now, and could be set to eat again as Denver scrambles to cover all of the OKC’s weapons. The matchups and rest advantage heavily favor the Thunder in this series. After losing in the second round as the top seed last year, it’s time for the Thunder to show their growth and take the next step on their inevitable championship chase.