NBA mock draft 2026: Boozer, Peterson, Dybantsa race for No. 1 pick in updated projection

Hearts will be broken or made full when the lottery balls bounce to determine the final order for the 2026 NBA Draft. Smart front offices have been preparing for this draft class for years with Cameron Boozer, A.J. Dybantsa, and Darryn Peterson forming a top-3 that is as strong as any in recent memory. While it still feels like there’s a big drop-off after the third pick, this college basketball season is already creating new stars who are working their way up the draft board.

Long-term tanking teams like the Wizards, Nets, and Jazz badly need some lottery luck this time around. Cooper Flagg’s Dallas Mavericks also feel desperate to move up without control of their 2027-2030 first-round picks. The Indiana Pacers are praying for a gap year miracle to add an elite talent next to Tyrese Haliburton when he returns from a torn Achilles, while the Chicago Bulls and Portland Trail Blazers would love to be rewarded for eschewing tanking to try to build through the middle. Then there’s the reigning champion Oklahoma City Thunder, who could land another top pick thanks to their brilliant 2019 Paul George trade.

Here’s our latest projection of the 2026 NBA Draft, with more analysis after the table.

Let’s dive into some of the biggest themes of this draft, starting with the No. 1 pick.

Cameron Boozer vs. Darryn Peterson vs. A.J. Dybantsa: Who you got?

Boozer, Peterson, and Dybantsa are all viewed closely enough around the league that we may not know the No. 1 pick until draft night. Heath, NCAA tournament performance, and team fit with the lottery winner will likely influence the decision at No. 1 by the time the pick comes in, but all three players have special traits that translate well to the next level.

Cameron Boozer, F, Duke: Boozer is typically considered the third pick in mainstream projections, but we’ve had him at No. 1 since the beginning of the cycle. I favor Boozer for his long track record of winning at the prep level, plus his elite intersection of strength, skill, and processing. At 6’9, 250 pounds, Boozer fills up the stat sheet at a terrifying level as evidence by his 18.9 BPM (an all-in-one stat that estimates a player’s contribution to the team when they’re on the court), which would be a freshman record if it holds. The offense usually gets a good shot when the ball touches Boozer’s hands: he can overpower smaller defenders near the basket or take slower bigs off the bounce, he’s a high-IQ passer who always has the court mapped when the double comes, and he’s become a very good outside shooter for his size. He’s a sound defender positionally at the four even if he doesn’t have the explosiveness to recover when he gets beat. He’s going to be a plus rebounder at both ends, and he’s likely to have the lowest turnover rate of the top-3. Boozer isn’t the most nimble or bounciest athlete, and there are some concerns about his below-the-rim finishing over NBA length. At the end of the day, Boozer’s teams always win and he’s the one driving the winning. Don’t overthink his pro translation.

Darryn Peterson, G, Kansas: Here’s hoping this isn’t a lost one-and-done season for Peterson because of hamstring issues that have plagued him since the beginning of the year. After sitting out a long stretch of games, Peterson has returned but still clearly looks limited by the injury. He just doesn’t have the same burst he showcased at the high school level right now, and it’s made him more reliant on taking threes rather than his signature rim attacking. It’s incredible that Peterson is still putting up such efficient scoring numbers in a small sample even without being at his best physically. His shot-making touch just might be special, looking comfortable ripping threes from NBA range or rising-and-firing over defenders from mid-range. His defensive playmaking figured to be one of his best attributes, and should roar back to form once he’s healthy. It may be hard to get a read on if Peterson should be in a heavier on-ball role or best with another ball handler next to him long-term, but either way he’s one of the most complete guard prospects in the last decade. The most likely scenario of this draft still feels like it has Peterson going No. 1 despite the injury.

A.J. Dybantsa, F, BYU: Dybantsa has lived up to the hype so far as a huge wing scorer with relentless aggression attacking the basket and a smooth mid-range game. His strong frame (6’9 with a 7’1 wingspan), flexibility, and burst gives him outstanding physical tools, and his shot-making touch is coming along, too. Dybantsa is an excellent rim finisher who can create his own shot off the bounce with the length to finish over the top and ability to absorb contact on tough finishes at the basket. He’s so good at getting smaller defenders on his back and scoring on tough fadeaways from the short mid-range area, and he’ll of course be a major threat in transition. Dybantsa’s three-point volume has been low to this point, but he should at least be a league-average shooter for his position in time. His dfefense is the biggest red flag among the top-three candidates: he’s just not very active off the ball, and should be way more impactful on that end given his physical tools. I would be surprised if Dybantsa can pass Boozer or Peterson on my board, but he has a case for the best No. 3 overall prospect of my decade-plus covering the draft for this site.

Who’s rising and who’s falling?

Here’s some players moving up and down from our last mock draft in November.

Kingston Flemings, G, Houston (previous mock draft: No. 19): Flemings is the single biggest draft riser of the college basketball season. One of three McDonald’s All-American freshmen on the Cougars, Flemings has skyrocketed up boards with his spectacular burst, creative handle, and live-dribble passing upside. The 6’3 guard can hit the gas and the breaks in equal measure, showing fantastic change-of-direction and a deep bag of counters in the middle of the floor. His finishing (76.2%) has been incredible so far, and his three-point shot is falling (51 percent) at a crazy high clip despite low-ish volume (5.6 3PA per 100) so far. Flemings looks like he’ll be solid defensively too with good length for a point guard, super quick hands, and a strong frame. Flemings vs. Mikel Brown Jr. will be a fascinating debate as the draft draws closer, but for now I favor Flemings’ rim attacking and defense over Brown’s shooting.

Yaxel Lendeborg, F, Michigan: Lendeborg will be 24 years old at the start of his rookie season after a winding path that included two years of JUCO and two years at UAB before transferring to Michigan. He’s proven himself against top competition in a big way so far, helping the Wolverines look like a juggernaut while nailing his transition to more of an off-ball role that will be appealing to NBA teams. Lendeborg has a great intersection of length (7’4 wingspan) and strength for a forward, and looks more comfortable playing as a wing after primary being a center at UAB. Lendeborg has really improved his three-point volume with 9.3 attempts from deep per 100 possessions this season, and he’s hitting them at a 40 percent clip. His defense was good enough to earn him two AAC Defensive Player of the Year awards, but again that was mostly playing as a big at UAB. I’m a little worried about Lendeborg’s age and full-time transition to the perimeter at the NBA level, but his production and tools are so good that he deserves lotto consideration right now.

Nate Ament, F, Tennessee (previous mock draft: No. 5): Ament has struggled badly against top competition while showing the limits to his theoretical dribble, pass, shoot skill set. The wiry 6’10 wing just isn’t strong enough to play through contact right now, struggles to create space off the dribble, and can’t reliably beat teams with his jump shot from any spot on the floor. Ament’s finishing has been disastrous with a sub 50 percent mark so far, and it’s made him the most inefficient two-point scorer in the class. He entered the week with as many turnovers as assists, and he doesn’t make an impact as a rebounder or supplemental shot-blocker. So why is he still top-10? Ament’s team context at Tennessee was always going to be poor with limited spacing around him. His long-term shooting indicators are still positive with an 80 percent free throw stroke and solid volume from three at 9.3 attempts per 100 possessions from deep. Ament badly needs to add strength to unlock any kind of threat attacking the basket, but his length, shooting, and defensive playmaking are still promising. He risks falling out of the lottery on the next update without improvement.

Tounde Yessoufou, G, Baylor (previous mock draft: No. 16): Yessoufou is a hulking 6’5 wing with a 3-and-D reputation who needs a lot more polish on the offensive end right now. The Baylor freshman just doesn’t look comfortable on the perimeter in halfcourt settings, with a shaky handle limiting his driving frequency and efficiency and a lack of critical connective traits for the role. Yessoufou doesn’t see the floor well as a passer or ball mover, and his three-point shot isn’t reliable enough yet to be the only thing he can fall back on offensively. I do like the way Yessoufou defends at the point of attack and his motor is consistently impressive, but the lack of offensive polish in the halfcourt is concerning.

Which players could be first-round picks in our next update?

Here are some players who just missed the cut: