But environmentalists are not the only ones who’ve criticized the choice of location. An expanded port, built to facilitate ammonia exports, will sit immediately adjacent to a site that housed a labor and extermination camp during Namibia’s 1904–1908 genocide, in which tens of thousands of Nama and Herero people were killed by German soldiers during a period of resistance to colonial rule. A 2024 report commissioned by Nama and Herero leaders argues that the extension of port infrastructure would “desecrate” the heritage of the area and those who died there. It doesn’t help the optics that Hyphen’s majority shareholder, the renewable power producer Enertrag, is a German company.
Beyond these sensitivities, Namibia’s broader hydrogen aspirations remain subject to many questions. While the country’s desert climate is ideal for generating power, the other key input for green hydrogen—water—is scarce. The central coastal region, where the HyIron and CMB.Tech projects (as well as several others in early-stage development) are based, already sources much of its water from a local seawater desalination plant that’s powered only in part by renewables. Other facilities are planned here and in the south, but some worry that hydrogen projects could face water-related bottlenecks.
“If you want your green hydrogen projects to be implemented here, we want our household problems to be solved.”
William Minnie, youth spokesperson, the Landless People’s Movement
Namibia’s prospects also hinge on a global market for green fuels that’s highly precarious. Over the past few years, the hydrogen sector has gone from a period of “hype” to one of “disillusionment,” according to Martin Tengler, head of hydrogen research at BloombergNEF, which studies markets for new energy technologies. Absent incentives, Tengler is skeptical that green hydrogen will ever reach cost parity with gray hydrogen in most parts of the world. Certain industries, though, could embrace it even if it costs more. He notes that some higher-end automakers have already shown a willingness to pay a premium for green steel, even if it means a car’s price goes up by 2 or 3%. (Benteler, a German metals processing firm that supplies the automotive market, has committed to purchasing test quantities of green iron from HyIron.)
Uncertainties also surround the future of ammonia. According to the IEA road map, ammonia made from green hydrogen could power 44% of global shipping by midcentury. But it, too, is likely to remain expensive relative to both conventional fuels and carbon-based alternatives like methanol and liquefied natural gas.
Some in Namibia are especially worried about Hyphen, which has not yet signed any binding agreements with customers. In a bid to boost Hyphen’s attractiveness to other financiers, the government assumed a 24% ownership stake in the venture. The money it’s put in so far, roughly €24 million ($27 million), is covered by a Dutch government grant. But Namibia’s portion of construction would likely be financed through loans, exposing taxpayers to the project’s risks. Detlof von Oertzen, an energy consultant who’s been exploring Namibia’s hydrogen potential since independence, believes this is reckless, especially given the country’s pressing needs in food, health care, and education. “We have a massive budget deficit,” he tells me. “We should not be binding resources to projects that might not end up leading anywhere.”
Like many Namibians I spoke to, von Oertzen thinks the government’s targets for hydrogen production, and jobs associated with it, are wildly unrealistic. At the same time, he and other critics believe there are ways in which the industry can contribute to national development. Despite his misgivings about the government’s support of Hyphen, he believes a desalination plant that the company plans to build could play an important role in combating local water shortages in Namibia’s sparsely populated south and, in turn, help draw more industry and people.
