Did the NIL and transfer portal kill Cinderella? It’s a question that should on everyone’s mind as they go to fill out a 2026 men’s NCAA tournament bracket. It certainly feels like it happened last year. The 2025 tournament saw all four No. 1 seeds make the Final Four for the first time since Derrick Rose was playing college basketball back in 2008. It feels like there’s a damn good chance it happens again this season given how impressive the four top seeds look heading into March Madness.
I nailed three of the four Final Four teams last year. I only got cute with one of my picks, and it came back to bite me. I picked No. 8 seed Gonzaga to knock off No. 1 seed Houston in the second round. The Cougars would end up winning that game by five points, and then they advanced all the way to the national title game after upsetting Cooper Flagg and Duke in the Final Four. Kelvin Sampson and his team would have rings on their fingers right now if it wasn’t for the heroics of Florida’s Walter Clayton Jr.
Want to win your pool this year? The safest bet is go all chalk when it comes to picking the Final Four. Most people feel like they have to pick upsets when they fill out a tournament bracket. Picking all No. 1 seeds is boring — and even I didn’t take my own advice for that reason. Still, the good teams this year are really good, and any of them are a legitimate national title choice.
Here’s why the smart move is picking all four No. 1 seeds this year.
The top seeds all have monsters in the middle
All sports are copycat leagues, and college basketball is no exception. Coaches watched Zach Edey and Donovan Clingan matchup in the 2024 national championship game between Purdue and UConn, and they realized it’s best to be super big and super talented inside.
The four No. 1 seeds all followed that formula this year.
- Michigan starts 7’3 center Aday Mara (7’7 wingspan), 6’9 forward Yaxel Lendeborg (7’4 wingspan), and 6’9 big man Morez Johnson all at the same time.
- Florida starts 6’10 center Rueben Chinyelu (7’8 wingspan), 6’11 big man Alex Condon (7’1 wingspan), and 6’9 wing Thomas Haugh in the front court.
- Arizona starts 7’2 big man Motiejus Krivas (7’5 wingspan) and has two beefy forwards in Tobe Awaka and Koa Peat playing big minutes.
- Duke has the national player of the year in 6’9, 250-pound Cameron Boozer plus two of the country’s best defensive centers in Patrick Ngongba and Maliq Brown around him.
It’s not just the height that’s so intimidating for these top teams, it’s also the length and the strength. I’d also argue that all of these players exhibit high feel for the game, and are smart enough to put their physical advantages to work.
Their defenses are dominant
Michigan finished No. 1 in defensive efficiency by allowing 89 points per 100 possessions. Duke was just barely No. 2 in the country at 89.1 points per 100 possessions. Arizona was No. 3 with a 90 team defensive rating. Florida was way back at No. 6 at 91.7.
Turns out having a lot height, length, and strength on your roster results in having a good defense. Who knew? Arizona probably has the best perimeter defenders of the bunch with three freshmen — Brayden Burries, Ivan Kharchenkov, and Peat — all able to take on tough defensive assignments. Duke has a springy wing stopper in Italian freshman Dame Sarr. Florida has smaller guards, but Haugh is versatile enough to take on tough defensive assignments, and Chinyelu’s paint protection is incredible. Michigan just funnels everything inside and lets their three future first-round picks in the middle handle everything else.
Sure, it makes sense that the best teams in the country would have the best defenses. That’s the case in the NBA, too, where four of the top-five teams in defensive efficiency — the Thunder, Pistons, Spurs, and Celtics — are also top-five in net-rating. If you believe defenses wins championships, go with the top teams.
Any of the top seeds are a good pick to win the national championship, so there won’t be too much overlap
This isn’t a year where there’s a heavy favorite. Instead, there’s four heavy favorites. Even if other people in your pool go with four No. 1 seeds to the Final Four, there should be enough diversity in national title picks to separate yourself from the pack if you get it right.
It would be Duke vs. Florida and Michigan vs. Arizona if all four No. 1 seeds make the Final Four. Both of those games would feel like a coin flip. I picked the Blue Devils to win it all mostly because all Cameron Boozer does is win championships. I totally understand the logic of picking Michigan (the best team all season), Arizona (undefeated for the longest among power conference teams), or Florida (peaking at the right time), too.
Mike Rutherford noted that three No. 1 seeds have never made back-to-back Final Fours. I say history is made to be broken.
You can get crazy and pick a few upsets in the opening rounds. I’m sure one No. 3 or No. 4 seed will lose in the first round. I won’t hate it if you choose a No. 2 seed to lose their first game, though I doubt it happens. When it comes to the top teams, though, it’s best to play it safe, and cash in at the end.
