We’re just two days away from the most glorious Sunday on the sports calendar (I said it), and there’s still plenty of moving and shaking to sort out between now and then.
Here are the three biggest things to keep an eye on from now until the moment the field of 68 is officially revealed.
No one can be exactly sure what the current state of the last few teams in and out of the field is, but we have a pretty good idea of what teams are on shaky ground.
Here are the bubble teams still alive in their conference tournaments that can solidify their spot in the field of 68 with another win or two.
Ohio State — It feels like the Buckeyes probably secured a spot with their win over Iowa on Thursday, but toppling mighty Michigan in the quarterfinals on Friday would leave no doubt.
Oklahoma — The Sooners are suddenly one of the hottest teams in the country, having won six in a row. Given the relative lack of strength of the bubble this year, a run to the SEC title game might be enough to allow Porter Moser’s team to slip into the field.
New Mexico and San Diego State — Both teams seem like they’re on the wrong side of the bubble at the current moment, but the loser of Friday night’s Mountain West semifinal game will almost certainly be eliminated from at-large consideration.
VCU — It would be very, very wise of the Rams to not lose their A-10 tourney opener against Duquesne.
The pool of at-large teams the Committee would select today might not be the pool of at-large teams the Committee will select in 48 hours. Sure, there are a couple of teams currently on the wrong side of the bubble who have an opportunity to play their into the field with a win or two, but there are also teams with zero shot at an at-large bid who are still alive to earn an automatic bid by winning their conference tournament.
Any time a team that fits said description cuts down the nets between now and the moment the bracket is unveiled, it will knock the previous “last team in” out of the field.
If a team besides Utah State wins the Mountain West Tournament, that’s a bid thief.
If a team besides Saint Louis (or potentially VCU) wins the Atlantic 10 Tournament, that’s a bid thief.
If something incredibly wild like Ole Miss winning the SEC or Georgetown winning the Big East happens? Bid thief. Bid thief.
Even if you feel like you have a pretty good handle on the current state of the bubble (you probably don’t, I probably don’t, Joe Lunardi definitely doesn’t), all it takes is a couple of wonky results over the next two days to throw everything back into a state of flux.
3. What happens with Miami University?
One team that could be dramatically impacted by a bid thief? The 31-1 Miami University Redhawks, who have suddenly become one of the most hotly debated at-large candidates in the history of the NCAA Tournament selection process.
Simply put, there is zero precedent for a team with an NCAA Tournament resume like Miami’s.
The 31-1 record is as gaudy as a blemished mark can be, but there are problems below the surface. For starters, Miami played just the 269th-toughest schedule in a sport that features 365 teams. The lack of schedule pop isn’t entirely Miami’s fault — as showcased by Matt Brown of Extra Points — but the fact that this team played 32 games and not one of them presented a Quad-I opportunity is something the Committee still has to take into consideration.
Predictive metrics, which seem to increase in importance every year, all believe that Miami wouldn’t even be flirting with an NCAA Tournament bid if it played in a better conference or had been able to piece together a more challenging non-conference schedule. The three predictives that the Committee looks at — Ken Pom, T-Rank and BPI — have the Redhawks ranked 90th, 85th and 90th, respectively. That’s good for an average of 88.3.
On the flip side, the three resume rankings that the Committee utilizes have Miami at 21st, 40th and 50th, for an average of 37.0. While predictive and resume rankings are fairly frequently at odds during this time of the season, there’s never been a case before where the disparity has been this extreme.
Here’s the even better news for the Redhawks: Last month, when select members of the media met for a mock NCAA Tournament selection exercise, NCAA Vice President of Basketball Dan Gavitt told those in attendance that the wins above bubble metric would be prioritized by the Committee, especially when it comes to selecting which teams make the field and which teams are left out.
Miami entered Thursday with a highly respectable wins above bubble ranking of 33. Compare that with the ranking of power conference bubble teams like NC State (43) or Auburn (44), and you’d think the Redhawks would be in pretty good shape to receive an at-large bid on Selection Sunday.
Probably. Maybe. Who knows?
We’ll find out on Sunday.
4. Who gets the fourth No. 1 seed?
Everyone seems to be in agreement that Duke, Arizona and Michigan could all lose their Friday conference tournament games by 93 points and it would do nothing to change their status as No. 1 seeds. Everyone also seems to be in agreement that if the NCAA Tournament started today, reigning national champion Florida would be the fourth team to grace the top line.
But what if the Gators get bounced by Kentucky in Friday’s SEC Tournament quarterfinal and UConn looks remarkably impressive on their way to the Big East championship? Or what if the Gators get bounced by the Wildcats and Houston rolls to a title in what is widely viewed as college basketball’s strongest conference this season?
The answer to both of those questions is probably that Florida stays on the top line, but we haven’t reached the point where that’s a certainty. If Friday and Saturday deliver one or both of the sequences outlined above, there will be some drama during the opening minutes of Sunday’s selection show.
5. Will a 16-loss team really earn an at-large bid?
In the history of the NCAA Tournament, no team with more than 15 losses has ever been selected for an at-large big. That might be about to change.
Auburn, which sits at 17-16 overall following Thursday’s SEC Tournament loss to Tennessee, is positioned as the anti-Miami University. The Tigers have a handful of really impressive wins —- at Florida, over St. John’s on a neutral, over Kentucky and Arkansas at home — but they’ve lost 16 times, including nine times in their last 12 games.
The Committee has consistently shown over the years that who you’ve beaten matters more than who you’ve lost to, but selecting a power conference team that sits at just one game over .500 would be taking that philosophy to a whole new level.
