Super Saturday — the last Saturday before Christmas when shoppers are desperate to buy holiday gifts — will live up to its reputation this year.
An estimated 158.9 million consumers in the U.S. plan to shop on Super Saturday, according to an annual survey released Wednesday by the National Retail Federation and Prosper Insights & Analytics.
The figure is up a bit from the 157.2 million shoppers who came out on Super Saturday in 2024 and this year’s crowd estimate surpasses the previous record of 158.5 million people who came out to shop Super Saturday in 2022.
“As the final Saturday before Dec. 25, Super Saturday is a significant shopping event for both consumers and retailers,” Katherine Cullen, NRF‘s vice president of industry and consumer insights, said in a statement Wednesday. “This year’s event falls only five days before the Christmas holiday, and consumers will shop across retailers and channels in search of the final gifts on their lists and other holiday items they need to complete a memorable holiday season.”
The NRF/Prosper Insights crowd estimate is based on a survey of 8,005 adult consumers conducted from Dec. 1 to 10.
Super Saturday is always one of the biggest shopping days of the year since it presents a late opportunity for shoppers to buy holiday gifts. It’s past the deadline for most brands and retailers to ship gifts to homes before Christmas, so consumers become more inclined to shop stores over the Super Saturday weekend, and pick up gifts immediately rather than shop online. It’s also past when most retailers and brands offer free shipping.
This year, Super Saturday will benefit from the mild weather conditions expected through most of the country, encouraging consumers to get out of their houses, hit the malls and spend more time shopping. Restaurants are also seen benefiting from the better weather.
There would also be some pent-up demand on Super Saturday considering how the beginning of this week saw frigid weather conditions in the Northeast and Midwest, keeping many people at home and away from stores, though some business would have been made up online. A winter storm hit the Northeast on Sunday, leading to temperatures well below freezing and icy conditions through Tuesday. Also, much of the Pacific Northwest last week suffered flooding.
By Wednesday, however, temperatures were back in the 30s and 40s. According to Planalytics, which predicts the weather to help stores with their planning, “most businesses in the U.S. can expect drier and milder conditions in time for Super Saturday, supporting traffic into retail stores, shopping centers and dining destinations. Warmer temperatures will steadily expand from the Central U.S. to the East Coast as we head into the weekend. By Super Saturday, warmer-than-normal temperatures will prevail across most major markets. Store traffic will be lifted by dry conditions across the South [and] Central regions, and through most of the Eastern U.S.”
Planalytics also reported there will be some exceptions to the calm weather in certain areas of the country, including heavy precipitation and strong winds in the Pacific Northwest and Northern California. In addition, Planalytics indicated that light rain and snow showers are expected across the Great Lakes and Northeast on Friday, but conditions will be mostly clear for the weekend.
By early December, consumers had completed 51 percent of their holiday shopping on average, according to the NRF/Prosper Insights survey.
Getting deeper into the mindsets of consumers, NRF and Prosper reported, “For those who still had more than half of their items left on their shopping lists, top reasons included that they were still trying to figure out what to buy (33 percent), had other financial priorities before December (25 percent) or were waiting for family and friends to let them know what gifts they wanted (23 percent).”
“Along with tangible items, gifts of experience continue to be a popular choice for people looking to create memories with loved ones,” Phil Rist, Prosper Insights & Analytics executive vice president of strategy, said in a statement. “Three in 10 shoppers plan to give an experience this year, such as art classes or tickets to an event. This figure has grown in popularity over the past 10 years, when only 22 percent of shoppers expected to give an experience in 2015.”
Looking ahead to the end of the year, Rist said, “Seventy percent of consumers plan to shop the week immediately after Dec. 25. The top reasons include taking advantage of holiday sales and promotions and using gift cards.”
A look at Black Friday 2025 shopping outside the Coach store on Fifth Avenue.
Masato Onoda/WWD
While low- to midsingle-digit sales gains are expected for the holiday 2025 season, it remains to be seen how much discounting will affect profits and margins. Those sales projections are based on nominal sales. Real sales gains, factoring in inflation, will be more in the 1 percent range.
Retailers recently told WWD that discounting levels are on par with 2024, with many offering price cuts ranging from 30 to 50 percent off. In the past week, retailers have become more aggressive with their discounting. Abercrombie & Fitch is offering up to 40 percent off almost everything online through Dec. 24, and from Dec. 16 to 18 and an extra 15 percent off select styles, online only. A&F indicated that the last day to order to receive packages by Christmas is Dec. 18. J.Crew on Wednesday was offering up to 50 percent off on select cashmere, and said that noon Dec. 19 was the deadline for receiving orders by Dec. 24.
Here is more of what the NRF and Prosper Insights are expecting for Super Saturday:
- Forty-five percent or 71.6 million consumers are planning to shop both in-store and online, up from 69.5 million, or 44 percent, in 2024.
- 46.2 million people (29 percent) will shop exclusively in-store.
- 41.1 million (26 percent) will shop online only.
- The top destinations where consumers plan to finish their shopping include online (46 percent), department stores (33 percent) and discount stores (26 percent).
- The top gifts shoppers have picked up so far include clothing and accessories (48 percent), toys (30 percent), gift cards (27 percent), books, music, movies, video games and other media (25 percent) and personal care or beauty items (23 percent).
