Dealmakers had a start-and-stop 2025.
The year began with a bullish vibe as experts saw a more business-friendly environment with President Donald Trump back in office.
But Trump quickly did exactly what he said he would do and started a protectionist trade war with the world that nonetheless caught the market off guard and stoked uncertainty.
While that uncertainty stopped some dealmaking, big transactions were taken across the finish line, proving that where there’s a will there’s often a way in the acquisition world.
Capri Holdings sold off Versace, raising $1.4 billion to pay down its debt. Gildan Activewear Inc. bought Hanesbrands Inc. in a $2.2 billion strategic deal. And Brazilian private equity firm 3G Capital surprised everyone by taking Skechers USA Inc. private in a $9 billion transaction.
KPMG, in an outlook in November, predicted recent trends would hold.
“Dealmaking in consumer and retail is expected to remain selective, shaped by persistent macro headwinds and strategic urgency,” KPMG said. “After a [third] quarter defined by divergence between deal value and volume, that bifurcation will continue. Premium, category-defining assets are likely to attract strong bids and command higher valuations, while middling assets will face execution risk and muted interest.”
So the market might continue to see fewer, bigger deals than usual.
In the third quarter, KPMG found a 4.7 percent decline in the number of deals compared with the preceding quarter, with a total of 509 transactions across consumer and retail. However, those deals were valued at a total of $44.8 billion, an increase of 24.1 percent from the second quarter, when the market was particularly scrambled by the trade war.
“The rationale behind transactions will remain varied but largely defensive,” KPMG said. “Spins, carve-outs, and targeted divestitures are expected to outpace scale-driven acquisitions as companies seek to generate cash, sharpen portfolio focus, and exit underperforming units. Take-private transactions will remain an option for undervalued public players looking to escape quarterly scrutiny and reset operations. Private equity firms, meanwhile, will lean into scenario-based underwriting, stress-testing recession cases and exit timing while prioritizing categories with proven rebound profiles.”
In fashion, the brand management companies are expected to continue to play a big role in dealmaking.
Authentic Brands Group — the industry gorilla — cut a deal to buy Guess Inc. last year, moving toward annual retail sales of $38 billion. Elsewhere, Marquee Brands bought Stance, Bluestart Alliance acquired Dickies and WHP Global linked with Vera Wang.
They are all primed for more this year and see plenty of opportunity to buy brands that are well known and have global reach, but could benefit from a new business model — one with much less overhead and no inventory risk.
