Josh Allen is locked in, and that should worry the rest of the NFL

A season ago, turnovers were a problem for Josh Allen.

As the Buffalo Bills lumbered out of the gate to a 5-5 record by their bye week, they faced questions over their playoff viability, and the idea of windows closing. Offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey was replaced after their fifth loss, a Monday Night Football disaster coming at the hands of Russell Wilson and the Denver Broncos. Still, Dorsey was one part of a bigger problem for Buffalo’s offense.

Another big problem? Turnovers. In that Monday Night Football loss to Denver the Bills gave the ball away four times, with a pair of lost fumbles and two interceptions thrown by Allen. The passer accounted for three turnovers on that night, and by season’s end, while the Bills rebounded to make the playoffs, Allen was second in the NFL among turnovers by quarterbacks, behind only Sam Howell.

Allen and the Bills were back on Monday Night Football against the Jacksonville Jaguars last night, and his performance was light years away from the turnover machine he was a season ago. Allen connected on 23-of-30 throws Monday night for 263 yards and four touchdowns, bringing his season total to seven touchdowns without an interception. On the year Allen has completed 75% of his passes for 634 yards and has a QBR of 92.6, which leads the NFL. Allen leads the NFL with a staggering Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt of 10.32. When you look at Quarterback Efficiency — a metric from RBSDM that combines Expected Points Added per Play and Completion Percentage over Expected — Allen is nearly off the charts, in territory often reserved for Patrick Mahomes:

Monday night was emblematic of Allen’s success this season, as the passer was locked in from the start, in fact, the very first snap of the game. Spotting that the Jaguars were in man coverage, Allen ripped a quick throw to James Cook coming out of the backfield on a wheel route, knowing the traffic created by wide receiver Mack Hollins would prevent linebacker Devin Lloyd from getting over to cover Cook, and the Bills were off and running from the opening play:

Buffalo went right down the field and reached the end zone on that opening possession, thanks in large part to the creative use of motion from offensive coordinator Joe Brady, including a fourth-down play where Jacksonville completely lost track of Khalil Shakir before the snap, leaving him wide open along the left side of the field. Watch as the receiver moves across the formation from right to left, and appears to cross the formation again, before reversing course and releasing to the left flat:

The cornerback trailing him in motion completely loses track of Shakir, and the Bulls have a fresh set of downs.

Allen’s first touchdown came on the kind of play we have grown accustomed to seeing from the Bills passer. With Buffalo facing a 3rd and goal from the Jacksonville 6-yard line, Allen initially sees all his options covered in the end zone. He deftly escapes to his right and keeps his eyes downfield, before spotting Dalton Kincade working across the back of the end zone. Allen fires a strike on the move, and the Bills are on the scoreboard again:

Allen’s second touchdown of the night, a 24-yard strike to rookie Keon Coleman, served up another example of just how hard it is to defend the Bills QB. Buffalo runs an under-center, play-action concept, with Coleman and Hollins running intermediate crossing routes. Jacksonville is in man coverage and they bring pressure, and with the right edge of the pocket softening Allen cannot step into his throw.

This is not a problem at all when you have a rocket for a right arm:

Buffalo closed out the first half with their fifth touchdown in as many drives, with Allen connecting with running back Ty Johnson on a vertical route out of the backfield for his fourth touchdown pass of the game. Once more, the Jaguars can pressure Allen and move him off his spot in the pocket, but the QB simply slides to his left to buy a little time, and with a flick of the wrist throws a perfect pass to Johnson in the front corner of the end zone for six:

Video game stuff.

At the moment the Bills are rolling, sitting at 3-0 and looking like the most dangerous team in the NFL. Granted, there is a long way to go between now and the playoffs, and NFL history is littered with September champions who tumbled down the stretch.

But more importantly for Buffalo, Allen is absolutely dialed in, playing like an MVP through this early stretch.

That, more than anything else, should worry the rest of the AFC, if not the rest of the league.