In what might be the best matchup of the Wild Card round, the Buffalo Bills head to Jacksonville to take on the Jaguars in the first round of the playoffs. The Bills come in as slight 1.5-point favorites and the total sits at 52.5, the highest of the weekend by six points.
The Jaguars defense has faced Cam Ward (injured), Brandon Allen, Phillip Rivers, Bo Nix, Brady Cook, Riley Leonard, Daniel Jones (injured), Cam Ward, and Jacoby Brissett over their last seven games. Nix and Brissett both went over 300 yards passing, while the rest were mostly shut down. Geno Smith and Davis Mills both had their best games against them and Joe Burrow was hurt when they played in Week 2. The Jaguars have a good defense, but they haven’t been tested by many top quarterbacks of late.
Below we will take a look at the best DFS plays for this Wild Card showdown.
Josh Allen, QB, Bills (FLEX $13,400, CPT $20,100)
Allen will be a popular captain due to his ability to score rushing touchdowns and the Jaguars strong defense against running backs. If the Bills are to go far in the playoffs, it will be on the back of Allen and his ability to put points on the board.
Allen does have some injury concerns coming into this matchup, but did get Week 18 off. Will it be enough to get him healthy? Probably not fully, but I expect him to be a full go in this matchup and leave it all on the field. Out of all the players in this matchup, none have a higher fantasy ceiling than Allen and if he goes off for 4-5 touchdowns, as is his wont, then you need him in the captain’s spot.
Trevor Lawrence, QB, Jaguars (FLEX $12,400, CPT $18,600)
Lawrence has come on strong in the second half of the season and he’s doing it with both his arm and his legs. His ability as a rusher has made his fantasy upside much higher than it’s been in the past and made it possible to use him in the captain’s spot. He has four rushing touchdowns in his last four games and nine on the season. Both of these quarterbacks have a high ceiling, as they are going to be more willing to run than they would be in a less meaningful game.
Parker Washington, WR, Jaguars (FLEX $10,400, CPT $15,600)
It was between Washington and Travis Etienne for this pick and I went with Washington because the Bills will be without cornerback Maxwell Hairston. It is easier to run on the Bills than throw, but Washington has been a target machine, with 9, 10, and 10 over the last three games. And, he’s turned those targets into fantasy points, with 17.2, 18, and 26.5. The fact that Jakobi Meyers, Brian Thomas Jr., and Brenton Strange are also strong targets makes picking one pass catcher riskier than if he had no real competition for targets, but he has been on fire and the Bills are hurting in pass coverage.
Brenton Strange, TE, Jaguars (FLEX $7,000, CPT $10,500)
Strange has been a consistent fantasy scorer of late, with two touchdowns over his last three games. He still needs a touchdown to be a strong play, but his floor isn’t awful, with 50+ receiving yards in his last two games.
Dalton Kincaid, TE, Bills (FLEX $7,400, CPT $11,000)
Kincaid continues to play through injuries, but he should be ready to go this weekend after playing 10 snaps last week. On the season he has had a great connection with Josh Allen. Kincaid’s efficiency has been off the charts this season, but his recent injuries have slowed down his production. I think they’ve been trying to get Kincaid right for the playoffs and that he will be in a good spot this weekend.
Brandin Cooks, WR, Bils (FLEX $5,800, CPT $8,700)
The Bills continue to look for some kind of deep threat in the passing game and that proved to be Cooks, at least for one game, as he caught 4-of-6 targets for 101 yards against the Eagles in Week 17. He was rested in Week 18, so it at least fees like he has a real chance to once again get good usage in the first round of the playoffs.
