Is a New York Liberty championship as inevitable as a Celtics title was?

BROOKLYN — To say that the New York Liberty dominated the WNBA season is a massive understatement. They finished the season with a 32-8 record, winning games by an average margin of 9.2 points. They boasted two win streaks of 8 games. They had three All-Stars, and probably could have had another.

From the moment the Liberty “super-team” was assembled last year, expectations were sky-high. Breanna Stewart arrived to the Big Apple as a perennial MVP candidate, securing the honor in her first season. Sabrina Ionescu was already dubbed an elite guard, and had every making of a franchise player. Jonquel Jones was just a few years removed from an MVP season with the Connecticut Sun. Sandy Brondello was as proven a WNBA coach as they come, previously leading the Phoenix Mercury to a championship in 2014.

The first season together resulted in disappointment — they ran up against a connected Las Vegas Aces team with a trio of elite guards and A’ja Wilson, who was playing the best basketball of her career. Breanna Stewart — grieving the loss of her father-in-law — uncharacteristically struggled in the playoffs, and the Liberty lost the Finals in four games.

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It’s not unusual for a stacked new team to fall short in their first season together — the Miami Heat’s Big 3 showcased that in 2011 — and historically speaking, it’s certainly more common for star-studded teams to need a year or so to mesh before everything comes together.

But every indication points to this Liberty team winning the championship. They averaged the second-most points per game at 85.6, and lead the league in rebounding with 36.6 per night. They had by far the league’s best net rating, winning games by an average of 1.7 points (for reference, the Connecticut Sun’s +/- was a +8.1, while the Lynx’s was a +8).

In less than 10 days, their fate will be sealed, and a core led by Stewart, Ionescu, and Jones will either bring home a championship to Brooklyn, or experience a second consecutive Finals defeat.

The first step in rectifying last season’s playoff letdown is complete: New York handily defeated Las Vegas in four game on Sunday, eliminating the team that haunted them all offseason in resounding fashion. In turn, only three wins separate New York from a franchise-first WNBA title. Liberty players have been clear that the semifinals victory was gratifying, but also that it wasn’t the ultimate goal.

The Celtics were similarly the most dominant regular season team by a mile in last year’s NBA season. They finished with a league-best 64-18 record, and a historic plus-minus rating of +11.34. All the while, their past shortcomings were held against them when predictions were cast about the 2024 season. Pundits and analysts had a hard time overlooking an 2023 Eastern Conference Finals that saw them trail Miami 3-0 and subsequently blow a 2-1 Finals lead in 2022.

Needless to say, the Celtics dispelled those concerns, dominating the postseason just as they did the regular season. They finished the playoffs with a 16-3 record, beating the Dallas Mavericks in five games to secure the NBA championship. The Celtics didn’t have the best player in basketball — and neither do the Liberty — but they had a starting five so well-rounded, so defensively solid, that their run seems inevitable in hindsight. Their regular season success carried over to the playoffs without missing a beat.

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There’s a good chance we’re missing a similarly obvious championship arc with the Liberty, as the two teams have similar threads.

The Liberty’s version of a Jrue Holiday is Leonie Fiebich. It’s not a completely accurate comparison — but what Fiebich has done to elevate New York on both ends is reminiscent of Holiday’s impact on Boston. Like Holiday, Fiebich perhaps surprisingly emerged as the best shooter on a team filled with shooters, all while playing a pivotal defensive role. Like Holiday, as a new acquisition, Fiebich took a bit of time to get her bearings before coming into her own in the second half of the season.

Sabrina Ionescu is probably Jaylen Brown in this scenario. It wouldn’t be surprising to see Ionescu win Finals MVP, and the jump she’s made as a playmaker and a defender elevated her from elite scorer to elite player (Brown’s jump was larger on the defensive end, Ionecsu’s more as a playmaker), but both went from All-Star to truly elite in the matter of one season.

Breanna Stewart is not in the midst of a spectacular shooting stretch, but she is the focal point on both ends of the floor, a connective pass that can put the ball on the floor, playmaker, rebound, and defend. She’s a significantly more proven and somewhat more efficient Jayson Tatum.

Jonquel Jones is the Liberty’s version Al Horford, except she’s only 30-years-old. Jones does the dirty work. She defends at a high level, and she’s a nightmare for opposing bigs. And, she can shoot the three-ball surprisingly well for a player her size, making the Liberty that much more difficult for opposing teams to guard.

Betnijah Laney-Hamilton is New York’s Derrick White: an elite, versatile defender who can also score at a high clip, a borderline All-Star and a fan favorite. Laney-Hamilton is playing through knee injury, but she’s still the exact type of player you want on any roster.

The player-to-player comparisons aren’t perfect, but this Liberty team might be as close to perfect as any WNBA team we’ve seen in recent years.

There’s only one caveat: the only team that beat the Liberty multiple times this season is the Minnesota Lynx, and that’s who New York is facing in the Finals. The Celtics never had to run up against the team that had the upper hand against them in the regular season, the Denver Nuggets, as Denver was eliminated prior the Finals.

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Unlike the Celtics, New York is going up against what was their most difficult matchup during the regular season. The Lynx went 3-1 against the Liberty this year, including a Commissioner’s Cup victory in June. If any team is constructed to beat New York, this Lynx team just might be it. So, while they probably enter the Finals as favorites, their championship isn’t inevitable simply due to the matchup — at least not in the same way a Celtics’ one may have been.

Anything can happen in the game of basketball, certainly. But, by beating the Sun in Game 5, the Minnesota Lynx ensured that the New York Liberty Finals matchup will be as competitive as possible.