Adam Silver spoke on Tuesday night about the future of the NBA, and much to the chagrin of fans in Seattle, there was no announcement about the future return of the Sonics. A reserved Silver gave a considered answer when asked about the league adding more teams, characterizing expansion as a “curiosity,” rather than a concrete plan.
Silver challenged himself and the NBA Board of Governors to “do the work” in exploring whether or not the association should expand beyond its current roster of 30 teams, with a need to evaluate which markets would want a team, and have the infrastructure to support one.
“If I were an owner, ultimately, what you’re considering is, is this additive to the league?” he said. “Additive can be measured in lots of different ways. There’s additive economically. But I think there is, from a competitive standpoint, how would particular markets impact our national footprint.”
While there are numerous cities one could envision housing an NBA team, functionally there are three which keep coming up as likely landing spots. Let’s dive into the viability of these cities, and imagine a scenario where the league expands to 32 teams, matching the NFL and NHL.
Seattle
This is an absolute no-brainer. Basketball fans in Seattle have wanted the return of the Supersonics ever since Clay Bennett moved the team to Oklahoma City in 2008 after the city refused to give him $500M in taxpayer money to fund a new stadium.
There is absolutely no reason Seattle shouldn’t have a team. It’s the 20th ranked media market in the United States, which is larger than nine current NBA teams, and the city has shown the ability to support professional sports in attendance. The NHL’s Seattle Kraken have been a sellout since their inception, and rank in the Top 10 in hockey in attendance.
Couple this with the fact that the iconic green and yellow are part of the NBA’s fabric and it would not just be a knockout business move, but a feel-good story in sports, similar to the return of the Hornets to Charlotte.
Las Vegas
Silver refers to Vegas as the NBA’s ‘31st franchise,’ as a nod to both the Summer League and being the host of ownership meetings. Leaving (to) Las Vegas has been the dream of many sports owners, consistently prompting rumors of relocation — but a far better move for the NBA would be to put an expansion team in the city, rather than break a fanbase’s hearts by moving a team.
The city has shown a willingness and love of basketball by embracing the Las Vegas Aces of the WNBA, where the team routinely ranks in the top three in attendance. It’s proof that not only the city support a team as a curiosity, but develop a rabid local fanbase. It’s not difficult to envision the city being an absolute hot spot for NBA basketball, with visiting teams likely seeing mammoth boosts in attendance as some of basketball’s biggest stars arrive in the country’s hottest tourist destination.
Vegas is very much a “when” and not an “if.” The city will get a team in the next five years, because the money is there. Hopefully it will come from an expansion, and not a relocation.
Mexico City
The NBA established a willingness to be a multi-national organization when it added the Toronto Raptors and Vancouver Grizzlies in 1995, and there are plenty of people who think it’s time for the NBA to head south of the border.
Mexico has seen an eye-popping jump in NBA interest over the past several years. From 2022-to-2023 the sport saw a ludicrous 25 percent year-over-year jump in viewership, which catapulted Mexico into a Top 10 international market for the NBA. Basketball popularity is through the roof, and supporting that with an NBA team only makes sense.
Mexico City would become the NBA’s largest city if an expansion team was placed there, ranking above both New York and Los Angeles. While the are distinct demographic and wealth differences, there’s no doubt Mexico City has a population that could easily support a team without any problems. It’s simply about getting the infrastructure for a move like this done, and that’s where it becomes a little more tricky.
What would a two team expansion look like?
While Mexico City makes a ton of sense, it also feels less realistic for NBA expansion, at least in the near future. After all, there have been rumors of the NFL trying to make inroads for the better part of 20 years, and still nothing has come about there.
So, let’s envision a world where Seattle and Las Vegas are given expansion teams, bringing the NBA to 32 total teams. That would add two to the western conference, needing some conference realignment.
Thankfully this is pretty easy to map out. As it stands the most easterly team currently playing in the west is the New Orleans Pelicans, so they make the switch to to the eastern conference, giving us a 16/16 split.
In order to make divisions work we’d ditch the current six division structure and move to eight, smaller geographic divisions to increase regional rivalries.
Eastern Conference
Northeast Division
- Boston Celtics
- Brooklyn Nets
- New York Knicks
- Toronto Raptors
Atlantic Division
- Charlotte Hornets
- Indiana Pacers
- Philadelphia 76ers
- Washington Wizards
Lakes Division
- Chicago Bulls
- Cleveland Cavaliers
- Detroit Pistons
- Milwaukee Bucks
Southeast Division
- Atlanta Hawks
- Miami Heat
- New Orleans Pelicans
- Orlando Magic
Western Conference
Great North Division
- Minnesota Timberwolves
- Portland Trailblazers
- Seattle Supersonics
- Utah Jazz
Pacific Division
- Golden State Warriors
- Los Angeles Clippers
- Los Angeles Lakers
- Sacramento Kings
Central Division
- Dallas Mavericks
- Denver Nuggets
- Memphis Grizzlies
- Oklahoma City Thunder
Southwest Division
- Houston Rockets
- Las Vegas _____
- Phoenix Suns
- San Antonio Spurs
Scheduling
A division realignment would also fit better into an 82 game structure, with it being able to operate closer to how the NFL schedules divisions, rather than the nonsensical mess NBA scheduling currently is.
- Six games against each division opponent (18 games)
- Four games against each non-division conference opponent (48 games)
- One game against each non-conference opponent — Eight home, eight away (16 games)
Playoffs
This is simple. The top team in each division are in, giving four. The two teams with the best conference record but did not win their division get home court advantage in the Play-In Tournament, with the final four teams being the other two second place divisional teams, and two wild card teams given entry by having the best record while finishing third in their conference.
When will expansion happen?
That’s the rub. Silver’s words on Tuesday night make it seem like expansion is both further away than we expected, but also on the minds of the league more. That might seem paradoxical when in fact it’s less about randomly giving Seattle a team, and more about looking towards a significant expansion — one which could theoretically add more than just the two teams mentioned here are.
When it comes to timeline 2030 feels like a reasonable date to at least make an announcement of expansion. Putting the discussion on the front burner is the first step, and we’ll need to watch as this discussion comes up in the future.
