Turkey dinners and televised football games didn’t distract Americans much from gift shopping on Thanksgiving Day – at least online.
So suggests the latest sales data from Adobe and Salesforce, which on Friday both weighed in with upbeat reports indicating that holiday shopping is off to a good start. It’s being fueled by widespread discounting across the retail industry, in particular in toys, electronics, apparel, appliances, sporting goods and furniture. The compressed calendar leaving only 26 days between Thanksgiving and Christmas this year, compared to 31 last year; stock market gains, and less uncertainty in the air now that the presidential election has been decided have also motivated consumers to shop earlier than last year.
On Black Friday, Adobe reported U.S. consumers spent a record $6.1 billion online on Thanksgiving, up 8.8 percent from last year’s $5.6 billion.
But Salesforce reported that U.S. sales online grew 8 percent to $8.1 billion on Thanksgiving, which is $2 billion more than what Adobe reported. While online shopping was good, it’s unclear just how good it was given the difference in the online sales reports issued by Adobe and Salesforce. Differences are due to different methodologies, i.e. the size of the shopper base researched, involved in tabulating the results.
Globally, online sales on Thanksgiving grew 6 percent to $33.6 billion, Salesforce indicated. For Black Friday, Salesforce predicted that U.S. online sales would reach $17.7 billion, and $71.5 billion globally.
Salesforce indicated to WWD that its analysis is based on over 1.5 billion global shoppers, over 1.5 trillion page views and hundreds of millions of stock keeping units (SKUs) from 89 countries. “Our data models and algorithms extrapolate to mimic the entire commerce industry as a whole. The calculations we use blend first-party and third-party data, as well as several market assumptions, to generate the data points we present,” a Salesforce representative told WWD. “Our comparison data set is filtered for several factors to control for outliers, but our numbers include whatever market factors are taking place at that time, such as inflation.”
Adobe indicated that its data reported is based on analyzing commerce transactions online, covering over 1 trillion visits to U.S. retail sites, 100 million SKUs and 18 product categories. “Adobe Analytics is relied upon by the majority of the top 100 internet retailers in the U.S. to deliver and measure shopping experiences online,” the company said in a statement.
Adobe expects consumers will spend a record $10.8 billion online on Black Friday, up 9.9 percent year-over-year. There is a noticeable return to the use of doorbusters to attract early bird shoppers.
Cyber Monday will remain the year’s biggest online shopping day, driving what is expected to be a record $13.2 billion in spend, up 6.1 percent year-over-year, according to Adobe. The majority of U.S. consumers will shop online from 9 a.m. to 3 p.m., accounting for 42 percent of all online Black Friday shopping, Adobe predicted.
Cyber Week (the five-days from Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday) is expected to drive $40.6 billion in online spend, up 7 percent year-over-year, representing 16.9 percent of the overall holiday season, Adobe forecast.
In other Adobe observations, mobile shopping hit “an all-time high” on Thanksgiving, accounting for 59.5 percent of online sales, or $3.6 billion, up 10.5 percent year-over-year, Adobe reported. The most online activity occurred between 8 p.m. and 10 p.m. Thursday night. The software giant also reported that many consumers were opting for more expensive items, particularly in electronics, sporting goods, appliances, toys and personal care products.
“Cyber Week is off to a strong start, where bigger-than-expected discounts on Thanksgiving propelled impulse shopping in categories like electronics and apparel,” Vivek Pandya, lead analyst, Adobe Digital Insights, said in a statement Friday. “As people gathered with family and friends, many were hitting the buy button on their mobile devices, which hit an all-time high for the overall holiday season.”
Regarding best sellers on the day, Adobe listed several, but specifically in soft goods, it was all about accessories, smart watches, skin care sets and makeup products, lounge ware and pajamas, and bedding and linen sets. Adobe also cited increases in Chat Bot usage for shopping assistance, and in consumers taking advantage of buy now, pay later programs.
Adobe maintained that the sales gains are more about increased demand than inflation. Adobe’s Digital Price Index shows e-commerce prices have fallen consecutively for 26 months and were down 2.9 percent, year-over-year as of last October.
Black Friday is still the most important day of shopping for most retailers, but it doesn’t generate the huge crowds of the past due to stores running Black Friday promotions well in advance of the actual day.
A report from MRI software indicated strong in-store shopping in New York City on Black Friday. As of noon Friday, pedestrian traffic in the city’s retail hubs was up 9.1 percent compared with last week and 3 percent higher than Black Friday last year, “showing a very encouraging start post-Thanksgiving,” said Jenni Matthews, head of marketing for on location and footfall analytics at MRI, which provides software for real estate owners, operators and investors. “Shopping malls (in the city) appear to have hit the ground running, with pedestrian traffic up until 12 p.m., 67.6 percent higher compared to last week and 1.9 percent higher than Black Friday 2023. This should provide retailers with optimism as consumers look to grab some holiday bargains and really get into the festive spirit, making the most of the events, markets and attractions in retail hubs,” said Matthews.
The ICSC forecasts that 241 million consumers, 6 million more than in 2023, will be shopping for gifts. The trade organization is also projecting a 3 percent to 3.5 percent retail sales gains this holiday season, which is consistent with projections from other research organizations and retail analysts, generally forecasting 2 to 4 percent gains.
