Footwear players could be in for a happy holiday after a better-than-expected back-to-school season indicates consumers might still be purchasing shoes despite economic concerns.
Beth Goldstein, footwear and accessories industry advisor at Circana, said in a statement that the drivers of the footwear market in the third quarter “really haven’t changed all year.”
Must-have athleisure styles, key performance items, and trend-driven fashion models, which are enticing cautious consumers to open their wallets,” Goldstein noted. “A better-than-expected back-to-school period bodes well for demand during the holiday season, although rising prices are likely to cause some pressures, and make value an even more critical factor.”
According to new data from Circana’s Retail Tracking Service, U.S. footwear industry dollar sales were up 3 percent in the third quarter of 2025, which includes the months of July through September. The average selling price of footwear increased 4 percent in Q3, which is a result of continued mix shifts towards higher-priced brands and items, as well as selective MSRP increases, Circana noted. Units sold declined 1 percent in the period.
The back-to-school season was strong for athletic footwear, Circana found. Sport lifestyle, or athleisure sneakers, is the largest footwear segment and dollar sales grew 5 percent in Q3, with growth driven by running inspired styles. Soccer and cross training-inspired styles remained strong. In the performance space, running continues to be hot, growing in both dollars and units, as did walking.
As for the fashion category, it saw improvement over the second quarter but still reported sales declines of 1 percent in Q3. Although sandals typically generate less volume in Q3 than they do in Q2, fashion sandals experienced year-over-year growth of 6 percent in Q3, as consumers bought closer to need and were attracted by summer promotional events. Other bright spots for fashion in the most recent quarter included high shaft boots, boat shoes, and ballerinas.
This latest data comes as Circana reveals the results of its 21st annual Holiday Purchase Intentions study. The firm noted that this year’s report combines valuable perspective on how consumer behavior is changing compared to recent years when it comes to holiday spending and gatherings, as well as new insight into things that are having the biggest impact on that behavior, like tariffs, food and grocery costs, promotions, the economy, social media, and more.
Holiday spending in 2025 is expected to be similar to last year’s results, ranging between a 1 percent decline and 2 percent growth in dollar sales, Circana said. However, unit sales may fall by as much as 2.5 percent during the traditional November and December holiday shopping period.
According to the study, 56 percent of respondents are planning to purchase clothing, accessories and footwear this season, with an average planned spend across the categories of $490.
Circana also noted that social media is a major driver for footwear purchases, especially among Gen Z and Millennials. Approximately 80 percent of these younger consumers use social platforms to learn about footwear brands and retailers.
“Both function and fashion come into play for footwear purchases year-round – but emotion typically takes the lead during the holiday season,” Goldstein added. “Gifting and the cozy factor drive seasonal purchases, yet practicality still matters. Retailers who balance both messages, spotlighting key athletic styles and versatile fashion, will succeed. With Black Friday, Cyber Monday, and last-minute shopping making or breaking the season, agility in merchandising and messaging is critical to keep floors and websites fresh throughout the extended holiday stretch.”
