With fashion appearing to be on the rebound, Steven Madden Ltd. could be the biggest beneficiary of the new shoe trend, according to BTIG analyst Janine Stichter.
In a research note on Monday, Stichter highlighted four key themes emerging in footwear. She views Madden as a top pick among small and mid-cap stocks, but noted that the shift toward fashion shoes presents challenges for Deckers — owner of the Hoka and Ugg brands — and VF Corp.
The BTIG analyst wrote that fashion footwear is experiencing a long-awaited rebound. Moreover, fashion boots are a standout category and emerging as a trend for spring, a point she said is important since they have higher AURs (average unit retail). In addition, casual athletic trends for women are normalizing. However, challenges in canvas footwear persist.
Madden CEO Edward Rosenfeld said at the firm’s last conference call that boots were the “standout led by casual tall shaft styles, although the company is also seeing strong performance in dress shoes across various heel heights.” Caleres Inc. in its recent call cited strength in women’s flats and loafers. And Designer Brands Inc.’s CEO Doug Howe in the firm’s third quarter conference call cited the “strong performance” of key focus areas within the fashion business including boots. He too cited “tall shaft boots” as a trending style, as well as brown appearing to be the “hot color this season.”
Caleres also noted underperformance in women’s athletic shoes, pointing to that as an opportunity to build back its women’s fashion business. Stichter said a slow down is part of a normalization of the category, given the several strong years it has had.
And as for the canvas challenges, Stichter attributed this to a combination of soft sales at Vans, Converse (a division of Nike Inc.), and the “normalizing performance of Adidas terrace styles.”
A recent Footwear News check with retailers found that the arrival of winter has set the stage for boot-selling season. For women, all kinds of boots were in demand. And for men, variations of the Chelsea boot and options featuring lug soles for rugged winter weather were the norm among some brands. For kids, the focus was on winter snow boots as easy-on, easy-off shoes and sneakers remain the preferred footwear for children.
Alicia Murray, a vice president at Murray’s Shoes in Littleton, Colo., said boot season started slow because the fall was warm, but that sales were strong once October rolled around. “We are up 20 percent for boots compared to 2024,” Murray said, noting that she plans to add more dress shoe options next year as customers going back into the office and need more traditional dress shoes.
Jill R. Snyder, the president of Snyder Shoe Corp., which operates two stores in Michigan, said that even though sales of athletic shoes are softening, they “are still increasing — just at a much smaller rate.”
Adam A. Beck, CEO of Beck’s Shoes in California, said: “Overall, I am seeing sales picking up in our more dress/dress casual assortments. Athletics are stable with slight increase, but not nearly at the same level we have had in years past.”
Beck said that lower boots are solid and sold largely as a casual, everyday shoe, while mid-calf and tall boots are “very weather dependent” in our stores.
As for where the performance shoe trends are headed, Beck said, “I envision athletic leveling out as we see a resurgence of the ‘brown shoe’ moving into 2026.”
