FedEx St. Jude Championship: Betting odds, preview, predictions

If you ever go out for a stroll in downtown Memphis, chances are you will stumble upon B.B. King’s Blues Club on Beale Street, the spot made famous by the legend in its name and the house band that plays the best blues in the world. No doubt that B.B. King’s “The Thrill is Gone” echoes throughout the two-floor club daily, with patrons, restaurant goers, and music fans alike roaring to this most famous song.

But the thrill is never gone at TPC Southwind, the course hosting this week’s FedEx St. Jude Championship roughly 30 minutes east of B.B. King’s former hangout.

It’s a golf course that requires precision from tee to green as trouble lurks all around. Water comes into play on 11 of the 18 holes, which swallows up countless golf balls and ruins plenty of rounds. In fact, players have found the water more often at TPC Southwind than at any other golf course since 2003. Yes, that includes TPC Sawgrass, the host of the Players Championship. Yet this Southeast Memphis course yields plenty of birdies, with 15-under being the winning score on this par-70 in both 2022 and 2023.

So it’s no wonder that the last two years have produced thrilling playoff finishes, with Will Zalatoris and Lucas Glover winning, respectively. The thrill is truly never gone at TPC Southwind; it’s always here to stay, year in and year out.

Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images

Odds for the 2024 FedEx St. Jude Championship:

Here are the latest betting odds for players to win the FedEx St. Jude Championship, courtesy of DraftKings:

Scottie Scheffler +330

Xander Schauffele +800

Rory McIlroy +1000

Collin Morikawa +1200

Ludvig Åberg +2000

Patrick Cantlay +2200

Hideki Matsuyama +2500

Tommy Fleetwood +2500

Corey Conners +3000

Viktor Hovland +3000

Justin Thomas +3500

Sungjae Im +3500

Russell Henley +3500

Tony Finau +4000

Tom Kim +4000

Cameron Young +4500

Billy Horschel +4500

Aaron Rai +4500

Sam Burns +4500

Sahith Theegala +4500

Adam Scott +5500

Shane Lowry +5500

Photo by James Gilbert/PGA Tour via Getty Images

Predictions, Picks, Insight

Top 10 Picks for TPC Southwind:

Corey Conners — Top 10 +230

Corey Conners has been one of the most consistent players on the PGA Tour all season. He has made 20-of-20 cuts, which include 11 top-25 finishes. His best result came in his native Canada, where he finished solo sixth at the RBC Canadian Open. He also has two other top-10 finishes.

His fourth top-10 result of the year will come this week at TPC Southwind, thanks to his tremendous ball striking and solid accuracy off the tee. He also has played this course well before. Last year, he posted back-to-back 65s over the weekend to finish solo sixth. This year, Conners arrives in Memphis ranked 30th in the FedEx Cup standings, so a strong finish this week will take the pressure off next week in Denver. The top 30 players after the BMW Championship qualify for the Tour Championship, so Conners will feel motivated to play well.

Aaron Rai — Top 10 +275

Lost in the Matt Kuchar-Wyndham Championship Monday finish debacle is that Aaron Rai, quietly one of the better players on tour this season, actually won the tournament. Rai is fourth on the PGA Tour in total strokes gained and second in driving accuracy percentage, finding the fairway nearly 72% of the time. You have to put the ball in play off the tee at TPC Southwind, and barely anybody has done that better this season than Rai.

But his impressive metrics do not stop there. Rai finds the greens in regulation at a 71.7% clip, good for fourth on tour. He also has the fourth-best actual scoring average and avoids bogeys like few others. His pace of play has certainly been an issue and well documented, but his recent results speak for themselves. Outside of The Open, where he tied for 75th, Rai has not finished outside the top 20 since late May, a span of six events that includes the U.S. Open. So, considering Rai’s recent success and the fact that he stays out of trouble, which this course has plenty of, the double-glover will lurk on the leaderboard once again.

Photo by Isaiah Vazquez/Getty Images

Hideki Matsuyama — Top 10 +180

Hideki Matsuyama arrives in Memphis with some distress after a robbery in London forced his caddy and coach to return to Japan. Thieves stole their passports, but luckily for Matsuyama, his was salvaged, meaning the 8th-ranked player in the FedEx Cup Playoffs can still tee it up this week in Memphis.

The 2021 Masters Champion most recently won the bronze medal in Paris and he has had a strong season overall. Matsuyama ranks fourth on the PGA Tour in strokes gained tee-to-green, a testament to his ability to limit mistakes. He only makes bogey 13.33% of the time, good for 18th on tour. But the man from Japan has struggled with the flat stick this season, which has prevented him from contending at times. Nevertheless, Matsuyama finished solo 16th a year ago and lost to Abraham Ancer in a playoff at TPC Southwind in 2021. He will contend once again this week despite unfortunate off-course circumstances.

Justin Thomas — Top 10 +260

Two years ago, when Thomas last made the FedEx Cup Playoffs, the two-time major winner tied for 13th at TPC Southwind, despite ranking 62nd of the 70-player field in strokes gained putting. His flat stick has befuddled him again in 2024, as he currently ranks 104th on the PGA Tour in total putting. Yet, Thomas is 12th on tour in strokes gained tee-to-green, proof that he has straightened out his swing somewhat this season.

I like that trend to continue this week, with Thomas vaulting himself back into contention on a course where he has had plenty of success. In addition to his strong finish a year ago, Thomas won the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational by three strokes in 2020. Familiarity and comfort help, and Thomas has both of those going for him this week.

A pair of Top 5s we love:

Patrick Cantlay — Top 5 +400

Despite not emerging victorious so far in 2024, and not having his best season overall, Cantlay has still managed to amass enough FedEx Cup points to arrive in Memphis ranked 11th in the standings. He is still one of the best players in the world and can win any tournament on any course, so it would surprise nobody if he did so at TPC Southwind this week.

After all, Cantlay lost to Glover in a playoff in Memphis last year. He found the water to the left of the fairway on the dogleg left par-4 18th, which sealed his fate. But this year, Cantlay is trending in the right direction. Since missing the cut at the Memorial in early June, Cantlay tied for third at the U.S. Open, tied for fifth at the Travelers Championship in Connecticut, and most recently finished T-25 at Royal Troon. That recent trend, coupled with the fact that Cantlay will tee it up feeling refreshed, leads us to believe he will finish among the top-5 and contend for the title again.

Photo by Ben Jared/PGA Tour via Getty Images

Rory McIlroy — Top 5 +180

Rory McIlroy has had a solid season, which has included a pair of wins in New Orleans and Charlotte. But his 2024 will be remembered for what could have been. He came agonizingly close to winning the U.S. Open at Pinehurst, losing by one to Bryson DeChambeau. McIlroy most recently vied for a podium finish in Paris, but a greedy approach late in his final round kept him at bay.

Yet, McIlroy still has six top-5 finishes this season. He tied for third at this event a year ago, shooting a final-round 65 to finish one stroke out of the playoff. McIlroy also has three other top-12 finishes on this course throughout his career, proof that he feels comfortable with this layout. As such, McIlroy will lean on his exquisite driving capabilities to give him abundant opportunities this week, which will translate into his seventh top-5 of the year.

Winners:

Collin Morikawa — Win +1200

Since The Masters, Collin Morikawa has been one of the best players on the planet, as he has seen his ball-striking improve to near-elite form. He has six top-10s and has not come close to missing the cut since then, although he did turn in a disappointing effort in Paris, where he tied for 24th at the Men’s Olympic Golf Competition.

Still, Morikawa has done everything but win this year and seems due for a breakthrough victory. He has had success on this course before, which leads me to believe this could finally be his week. Two years ago, he tied for fifth at the FedEx St. Jude Championship, finishing four strokes out of a playoff. Then, last year, Morikawa finished T-13. But Morikawa has not posted an over-par score at TPC Southwind over the past two years, an impressive accomplishment considering all the danger it possesses. So, if he can get some putts to fall, watch out because Morikawa will undoubtedly give himself plenty of opportunities.

Photo by James Gilbert/PGA Tour via Getty Images

Scottie Scheffler — Win +330

Surprise! Scottie Scheffler arrives as the favorite yet again. He has had one incredible season, a year in which he has won Masters green and Olympics gold, among many other events. His 9-under 62 during the final round in Paris will live among the best rounds in golf history forever as the World No. 1 proved why he is the best. So, who says he can’t replicate that again this week in Memphis?

After all, Scheffler plays as conservatively as anyone, rarely making a mistake. When he does, he usually bounces back with a birdie, and the numbers show that. After dropping a shot, Scheffler rebounds with a birdie one-third of the time, ranking first on tour—Scheffler’s favorite stat. But he also ranks first on tour in birdie or better percentage and bogey avoidance. Go figure. So, since Scheffler yields no return by finishing in the top five or 10, you might as well pick him to win. And it would surprise nobody if he does, considering the astonishing year he has had.

Jack Milko is a golf staff writer for SB Nation’s Playing Through. Be sure to check out @_PlayingThrough for more golf coverage. You can follow him on Twitter @jack_milko as well.