Follow the NFL long enough and you’ll know that a constant is that the NFC South is weird. Teams from the division have been to the Super Bowl five times in the last 25 years, but routinely been the underdog. Part of this is due to the fact that the NFC South is in constant flux, with no team being able to establish dominance for more than 3-4 years at most. That’s happening again in 2025 with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ mantle potentially being toppled by the Carolina Panthers, who are both now at 7-6. It’s for this reason Thursday Night Football is of major importance.
On paper there should be a clear winner between the Bucs and Falcons. Tampa Bay fundamentally has all the pieces to make a serious run in an NFC lacking high-end performance outside of the Rams. However, in recent weeks Tampa has started to crumble, and their once vice-like grip on the division has worn away. Now it will all come down to two head-to-head matches between Carolina and Tampa to close the season, which will likely settle which team ill win the division.
So why is Thursday night so important then? The devil is in the details.
This is a full division week in the NFC South. The Falcons and Buccaneers play Thursday, with the Panthers and Saints facing off on Sunday. Tampa Bay fell to New Orleans in Week 14, splitting the series with the Saints — and they already have one win over the Falcons. The risk here is that Thursday has become a bizarre “must win” when it comes to potential tiebreaker scenarios down the road.
Imagine for a moment that the Falcons are able to pull off the upset tonight, and the Panthers are able to beat New Orleans on Sunday. That would result in Carolina taking sole ownership atop the NFC South. The next week sees the Bucs and Panthers face off for their first game, and let’s assume these teams split their divisional games against each other with Carolina winning at home.
That would put the Panthers at 9-6 and the Buccaneers at 7-8 with two weeks left. Carolina loses to the Seahawks, the Buccaneers beat the Dolphins. Then comes the second head-to-head game, this time in Tampa, which the Buccaneers win.
This would result in both the Panthers and Bucs finishing at 9-8 on the season. Circle back to Thursday’s game as the deciding factor — because here’s what would happen in a tiebreaker scenario.
- Head-to-head: Carolina and Tampa would be tied 1-1
- Best won-lost-tied inside the division: Carolina would be 4-2, Tampa would be 3-3
Panthers win the NFC South.
This would happen due to Carolina theoretically splitting their series with Tampa and New Orleans, but beating the Falcons 2-0. Now, if the Buccaneers win against the Falcons, and the Panthers beat the Saints we could have both teams being 4-2 against divisional opponents, which would send the tiebreaker to scenario three.
- Best won-lost-tied in common games: The Panthers and Buccaneers had eight common games on their schedule outside the NFC South: Seahawks, Rams, Patriots, Cardinals, 49ers, Dolphins, Jets, Bills. The Panthers have gone 3-4 in these games (with the Seahawks to play), the Buccaneers have gone 4-3 (with the Dolphins to play). It’s far more likely that Tampa beats Miami and Carolina loses to Seattle.
Buccaneers win the NFC South
There is no potential for a fourth tiebreaker. If Tampa Bay wins in Week 15 and the Panthers lose, then the Buccaneers get through on tiebreaker one. If we reach a scenario where tiebreaker four would be reached it would require the Buccaneers to lose three of their remaining four games, and the Panthers winning three — which would give Carolina the division.
Therefore, the only danger scenario for the Bucs begins with a loss on Thursday Night Football to the Falcons. If they win they control their destiny, a loss opens the door for the Panthers to sneak in by simply splitting the series with Tampa Bay.
