After a week off, the Formula 1 grid returns to life this weekend with the Azerbaijan Grand Prix.
Here are the biggest storyline facing the grid as the teams and drivers head to the challenging Baku City Circuit.
How McLaren can clinch a title in Baku
Could this week decide a title race?
McLaren certainly hopes so.
The team’s dominance of the 2025 F1 campaign — they enter the week with a commanding 337-point lead over second-place Ferrari — has put a clinching scenario in the Constructors’ Championship on the table this week.
Let’s walk through the permutations.
With eight grands prix remaining, along with three F1 Sprint races, the maximum number of points a team can claim over the rest of the season is 389. A driver (and team) secures 25 points for a grand prix victory, 18 points for a P2 in a grand prix, eight points for an F1 Sprint race win, and seven points for a P2 in an F1 Sprint race. A one-two finish in a grand prix is worth 43 points, and a one-two finish in an F1 Sprint race is worth 15 points.
Thus, hypothetically, Ferrari (or another team chasing McLaren) could go one-two in every grand prix and F1 Sprint race the rest of the way and claim 389 points.
After the Azerbaijan Grand Prix, there are only 346 points available, meaning McLaren needs to be 346 points clear of the team in second place to clinch the Constructors’ Championship in Baku. With 12 Grand Prix victories, McLaren has already secured the most race wins this year, so if the Constructors’ Championship standings see McLaren tied with another team atop the standings after the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix, McLaren will retain the title due to tiebreaker rules, with grand prix wins being the first tiebreaker.
Red Bull is closest to McLaren in this category thanks to Max Verstappen’s three wins, but he cannot catch them with eight race weekends remaining.
So, how can McLaren clinch this weekend?
The easiest way is another one-two finish in Azerbaijan, something Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri have combined for seven times already this season. That would clinch a title for the Woking-based team.
Absent a front-row lockout, they need to score nine more points than Ferrari for starters. They can be outscored by Mercedes and Red Bull (who trail McLaren by 357 points and 378 points, respectively), but by no more than 11 points when it comes to Mercedes, and by no more than 32 points when it comes to Red Bull.
So, let’s say Charles Leclerc wins in Azerbaijan. That alone would be enough to delay the celebrations. Even if McLaren finishes second and third (for 33 points), the 25 points from Leclerc’s hypothetical P1 would give Ferrari 305 points. The P2 and P3 for McLaren would increase their total to 650, a gap of 345.
One point shy of the 346-point gap they need.
The simplest path for McLaren is the front-row lockout, but working through the various scenarios, if they secure a P1 and a P3, they will get to celebrate in Baku.
Of course, title permutations are not the only storyline focused on McLaren this week.
The last time the F1 grid was in action, the world saw another set of team orders from McLaren called into question. While Norris and Piastri tried in vain to chase down Max Verstappen in the closing stages at the Italian Grand Prix, the team called Piastri, the championship leader who was running third behind Verstappen and Norris, in for a pit stop. Norris followed on the subsequent lap.
But a slow stop for Norris, as the team suffered a problem with the front left tire, saw the British driver climb out of pit lane in third behind Piastri.
The team instructed Piastri — who was in line to increase his lead over Norris in the Drivers’ Championship race by three points if he held onto P2 — to swap positions with Norris. Piastri initially questioned the order, but did move aside as the drivers finished in second and third, Norris in front of Piastri.
In the hours that followed, both Norris and Piastri attributed the decision to the culture the team has built in Woking, where McLaren comes first.
But that has not stopped the outside world from wondering just where the line is regarding “Papaya Rules.” And the clip of Verstappen being informed of the swap behind him — “Ha! Just because he had a slow stop?” was the reaction from the Red Bull driver — certainly drew some attention.
Given the emphasis on the team, everyone at McLaren must be hoping they clinch the Constructors’ Championship sooner rather than later, which likely frees up their driver duo to fight hard, but fair, for the Drivers’ Championship. As long as teams like Ferrari remain viable behind McLaren in the Constructors’ Championship battle, Andrea Stella and company are going to do their best to keep the peace.
Once that title is decided, which again could happen this week, then perhaps the Papaya Rules (and team orders) go out the window.
Can Red Bull and Max Verstappen surprise again?
Most people, when they have a week off from their day jobs, take some time for rest and relaxation.
Max Verstappen is not like most people.
While the F1 grid was silent this past weekend, Verstappen was in Nürburg, Germany, the site of the historic Nürburgring, going through the next set of steps to secure his DMSB Permit A so he can compete in GT3 racing at the circuit. On Friday, Verstappen sat for a theory exam, and then on Saturday, he was behind the wheel at the legendary track, where he and Verstappen.com teammate Chris Lulham earned a seventh-place finish in the CUP3 category.
“I’m happy it all went smooth, and I got my DMSB Permit Nordschleife,” said Verstappen after the session to Verstappen.com.
However, this week he returns to the F1 grid for the Azerbaijan Grand Prix, where he might have another chance to fight for a win.
Following his dominant win in Monza, Max Verstappen noted that the team’s success at the Italian Grand Prix was not exactly a sign of things to come. Rather, Verstappen stated, Monza might have suited the RB21 better than some other circuits.
“I think it’s still a bit track dependent. Here you drive low downforce. It always seems like our car is a little bit more competitive when it’s low- to medium-downforce. So it’s not like suddenly now we are back. It’s not like we can fight, I think, every single weekend,” said Verstappen. “But the positive is that we seem to understand a little bit more what we need to do with the car to be more competitive. So I hope that that carries on into the coming rounds as well, and some tracks will be a bit better than others.”
The Baku City Circuit could be one of those tracks where things are better for Red Bull. While there are some high-downforce sections, such as the technical section that winds through the Old City, the circuit contains some of the longest straights on the F1 schedule. Red Bull may look to take advantage of the RB21’s strengths on those straights this week, hoping the time Verstappen can gain on those sections outweighs any loss during the middle sector, often compared to Monaco.
If they can do that, Verstappen could surprise again.
Questions lingering about Kimi Antonelli at Mercedes
It was a difficult weekend at home for Kimi Antonelli at the Italian Grand Prix.
After finishing 16th in the Dutch Grand Prix, Antonelli was on track for a better performance at Monza, having qualified sixth. But things got away from him a bit during the race, as he was given a five-second penalty for forcing Alexander Albon off the track.
While he crossed the finish line in P8, that penalty dropped him to ninth in the final classification.
That incident with Albon was not the only blemish at the Italian Grand Prix for the young driver. During FP2, Antonelli found the gravel at the Lesmo 2 corner, bringing his second hour of practice to an end after just four laps.
Antonelli’s weekend was not exactly what his boss wanted to see.
“Underwhelming this weekend. Underwhelming. You can’t put the car in the gravel bed and expect to be there. All of the race was underwhelming,” said Toto Wolff to Sky Sports F1 after the Italian Grand Prix.
“It doesn’t change anything on my support and confidence in his future because I believe he’s going to be very, very, very good. But today was … underwhelming.”
Remember, Antonelli remains without a contract for next season, and with an extension not being announced at his home race, Wolff’s comments have a little more bite.
In all likelihood, Mercedes is going to announce a new deal with the young driver before the season ends. But he does need to show some improved performance in the weeks ahead. Since securing his maiden F1 Grand Prix podium at the Canadian Grand Prix in June, Antonelli has finished in the points just twice: A P10 at the Hungarian Grand Prix, and the P9 in Monza.
Checking in on the midfield battle
As always, do not forget the midfield fight.
Williams heads to Baku leading that battle, as their 86 points have them firmly in P5 in the Constructors’ Championship race. Aston Martin checks in at P6 with 62 points, just one ahead of Visa Cash App Racing Bulls in seventh.
Sauber clocks in at P8 with 55 points, followed by Haas in P9 with 44.
Given that just 42 points separate P5 from P9, the midfield fight might deliver some of the most exciting storylines over the rest of the season, starting in Azerbaijan.
