It is Saturday at the Monaco Grand Prix.
Welcome to the biggest Formula 1 qualifying session of the season.
Here are four big questions ahead of qualifying.
Are Ferrari the team to beat?
On the Thursday ahead of the 2024 United States Grand Prix Charles Leclerc stood in Ferrari’s hospitality space and told the assembled media, including SB Nation, that they were not the “favorites” to win in Austin.
Three days later Leclerc won the United States Grand Prix.
Yes, another hard battle between Lando Norris and Max Verstappen opened the door for Leclerc, but could something similar be playing out in Monaco? Last year’s winner of the Monaco Grand Prix told the assembled media during Thursday’s FIA Press Conference that his chances of a repeat performance were “low” and that “on paper, it’s going to be a tough one.”
He then went out and topped the timing sheets in both FP1 and FP2. And with Lewis Hamilton finishing third in FP3, it seems Ferrari might have something working at the moment.
Can they keep that up on Saturday?
Leclerc was not yet convinced.
“Maybe a bit less convinced but yeah, I’m not convinced the other way either,” he said to the official F1 channel when asked if he was still convinced his chances were low. “A Friday in Monaco is always very special, very specific, I think everybody is taking a bit their reference. It is too early to feel very positive about the weekend.”
Or will this be another “M&M” show?
Of course, the top three drivers in the Drivers’ Championship standings are right in the mix.
Oscar Piastri, who leads the Drivers’ Championship, was fifth in FP1, and second in FP2. While Piastri suffered an incident at Sainte Devote in the second practice session, running into the barrier, the McLaren driver said he and the team were in “decent” shape when speaking after the session.
Teammate Lando Norris, who sits 13 points behind Piastri in the Drivers’ Championship, was also near the top of the timing sheets, finishing third in FP1 and fourth in FP2. Norris was also consistently strong over the second half of the lap. During FP1 his second sector time was second-best, and his third sector time was the fastest of anyone. Then in FP2 his second sector time was again second-best, along with his third sector time was was also second fastest.
Norris called it a “solid” start to the weekend.
Then there is Max Verstappen, who enters the Monaco Grand Prix after a win at Imola, which pulled him to within 22 points of Piastri in the Drivers’ Championship standings. While he finished second to Leclerc in FP1, he slid down to tenth in FP2.
Verstappen was pleased with FP1 but noted that some balance changes the team made ahead of FP2 may have been a bit overdone.
“In terms of how we are looking for the weekend, I think FP1 was quite positive but then we made some changes for FP2,” said Verstappen. “We looked at how far we could push the balance and I think we just overdid it a little bit and I couldn’t attack the corners as much as I would have liked to. We were shedding a lot of pace and lap time.”
Still, we have seen Verstappen off the pace on Friday, and then snatch pole position on Saturday, already this season.
I would expect all three to be in the fight as Q3 draws to a close.
Do VCARB have something up their sleeves?
Ahead of the Monaco Grand Prix both Liam Lawson and Isack Hadjar talked about getting their first taste of the Monaco Grand Prix as an F1 driver.
Don’t look now but both drivers seemed up to the challenge, even if Hadjar had to deal with some moments that left him “scared.”
After Hadjar finished 13th in FP1 and Lawson finished 17th, both drivers took a big step forward in FP2, with Lawson finishing fifth and Hadjar sixth.
That came even with Hadjar suffering two different incidents, first a knock on the inside corner at Nouvelle Chicane, followed by a hard brush with the barrier at Sainte Devote.
“Both guys are reasonably happy with the car; we got a few more things to look at tonight, and I’m sure we can make the car balance even nicer,” said Racing Director Alan Permane.
They might be worth keeping an eye on later today.
Will the new two-stop rule impact qualifying?
With the FIA imposing a new two-stop mandate for the Monaco Grand Prix, we might already be seeing its effects.
That could continue on Saturday during the biggest qualifying session of the year.
As noted by Simone Berra, Chief Engineer at Pirelli, several drivers turned to medium and/or hard tires during Friday’s dual practice sessions. “Furthermore, with the special sporting regulation in place for this weekend, the choice of tires for the grid-deciding session will have a significant knock-on effect for the race. For example, today 13 drivers from seven teams chose to already use a set of Hards, thus having just one left for Sunday,” said Berra in Pirelli’s post-practice media report. “Five drivers, (Piastri, Norris, Hamilton, Hadjar and Lawson), used one set of Mediums in each of the two sessions.”
Will see drivers turn to mediums and save some softs for a stint on Sunday? The two-stop mandate might open the door.
So too might the lack of confidence we are seeing from some drivers in the C6 soft compound.
“It was important for us to see how the C6 performed after it made its debut in Imola and we can say that, here too, the indications we saw last week were also confirmed today,” added Berra. “The softest tire in the 2025 range is slightly faster than the C5 and, with one or two cool-down laps, recovers much of its performance.
“It was also clear that, given that it exhibits the traits of an extremely soft compound, the drivers might feel a little less confident with it when trying to push for a time right from the first flying lap. This could potentially open the door to the Medium also being used in one or more segments of qualifying.”
While we typically keep an eye on tires on race day the mandatory two-stop rule, coupled with the lack of confidence in the C6, might make tires a big story on Saturday in Monaco.
