“But can we actually win the World Series this year?”
No sentence encapsulates being a Red Sox fan lately more than this simple question. And I’m sure the same is true of a dozen, maybe two dozen other fan bases. In the age of Moneyball and quadrillion-dollar payrolls, wondering whether your team is competing or freeloading is just part of being a baseball fan.
Thankfully, I’m here to answer the question for everyone… in one way or another. If your favorite team makes this list, congratulations! Please enjoy the small analysis I have to provide about them. If your team is not on the list, well… please enjoy the peace of mind knowing that you can get excited for football season without worrying about conflicting schedules!
Tier 5: They could do it… but they could also win zero postseason games and we wouldn’t be shocked
Biggest strength: One of the greatest offensive players in the history of baseball, Aaron Judge
Biggest weakness: Bullpen, and karma from being the Yankees
(I will not be biased, I will not be biased, I will not be bia—) Okay, so if I was really being biased I would have just left them off the list. But my mortal enemies the Bronx Bombers can’t be counted out just yet, even if the vibes in the last few months have been going through the floor.
The Yankees loaded up at the deadline, but got off on the wrong foot with a Judge injury and some less-than-stellar contributions from their new additions. Nevertheless, this lineup and rotation has the talent to get the Yankees back to the postseason and through a few rounds, especially in the American league: a place that scares nobody.
Biggest strength: Name-brand talent
Biggest weakness: Actually winning baseball games consistently
“We don’t have a good chance at the World Series” said my Mets-fan friend, who asked to be identified as an anonymous source close to the Mets front office (he’s not). In fact, I’m just going to let him write this section since, during this latest slide, Mets fans are the ones you want to talk to, not me:
“This season is shaping up to be as heartbreaking as 2023, but at least that team had the courtesy to kill our hopes in April. On paper, we’re a top 3 team in the league. The lineup is star-studded and full, the bullpen is deep, and we don’t have a terrible rotation. And there’s a great farm system underneath it all.”
“Unfortunately, every aspect of the team is wracked with problems. The lineup is inconsistent, with only Pete Alonso and Juan Soto hitting very well. Even Soto hasn’t lived up to expectations. Although I think we’re being unfair to his still-ludicrous production. The back end of the lineup, which was a concern early in the year, actually hasn’t been all that bad. McNeil, Marte, Baty—and even Alvarez—have been alright, and more than enough for 789 hitters. But the stars aren’t shining, and we’re too late in the season to chalk it up to adjustments or slow starts”
He went on to send another few hundred words about how the rotation isn’t quite what it needs to be, and how winning requires consistency… but you get the gist. I’ll leave you with his final words, emblematic of Mets and Red Sox fans for years — maybe it’s why we’re friends:
“But hey, there’s always next year!”
Biggest strength: Starting pitching, top-end relievers
Biggest weakness: Numbers 5-9 of the lineup
The lone team on this list that I am definitely qualified to comment on, this Red Sox team has been solidly the best in the last four seasons despite a shocking Rafael Devers trade that seems to have turned things around for the Red Sox and absolutely turned things upside and thrown them out a window for the San Francisco Giants. In any case, winning in Boston comes down to one thing, and one thing only: starting pitching.
Garrett Crochet has been a 10 out of 10 trade for the Red Sox so far, locked up with an extension and poised to headline this rotation for over half a decade. He’s a legit Cy Young contender, and stands to be every year going forward. The rest of the rotation has been smooth as well, with shockingly-good Bryan Bello and Lucas Giolito seasons unfolding and the Dustin May-Walker Beuhler Axis of Whatever managing to stay above water. But as soon as a starter gets knocked around, things get ugly.
The Sox lack anything resembling depth in their bullpen, which has been statistically quite good this year. They probably have the best closer in baseball in Aroldis Chapman and a premier set-up guy in Garrett Whitlock. But everyone else has left a lot to be desired recently, and if the starter gets shelled, the bats haven’t exactly made up for it.
The Red Sox offense has been, for basically a month, Roman Anthony and Alex Bregman with occasional Trevor Story interludes; so much so that the two heroes are glued next to each other in the order. But nobody ahead of them or behind them can get on, so it puts a lot of pressure on the starter to go long. Maybe that will work in the postseason, but maybe not.
Tier 4: Good teams with big questions
Biggest strength: Pedigree, and addition of Carlos Correa for free
Biggest weakness: Injury to closer Josh Hader
The Astros haven’t quite felt right this year. They still have lots of good players and occupied the best record in the American League for a hot minute, but they just aren’t the beast they used to be. But as long as Jose Altuve is standing upright, everyone will remember how good this team is when they’re at their best.
But the injury to Hader, which dropped him on the IL last week, will have Houston fans quaking. Their bullpen was hardly something special before, and this smokes a unit that was already in dire straits. No closer means no guarantees, no guarantees means winning playoff rounds one after another will be hard as hell, even if it is possible.
Biggest strength: Stacked lineup with crazy power
Biggest weakness: History
The Mariners snagged Eugenio Suarez at the deadline and created a lineup with so much slug it may as well be a 12 gauge shotgun. Cal Raleigh, Julio Rodriguez and Randy Arozerena were already kicking around, and Josh Naylor and Suarez showed up to send things to the stratosphere. Even if the stats aren’t yet running away from everyone else, there is not a pitcher on the planet that wants to see this lineup twice.
The Mariners’ biggest problem is that they are absolutely-unequivocally the worst and most pathetic baseball franchise in history and it isn’t even close. They’ve had way better teams than this and done absolutely nothing, achieving a level of historical tragedy that I actually have to consider it here. If, for no other reason, than to not feel stupid if and when this all happens to them again.
Tier 3: Very good teams who are going to have to overcome something
Biggest strength: High-quality throughout the lineup
Biggest weakness: Tragic trade deadline
I have a friend who’s a big Cubs fan and a legitimate Division 1 MLB ball-knower, and his social media after the trade deadline felt like watching someone try to burn down a house they were in through a phone screen. Cubs fans aren’t exactly thrilled with how their front office has behaved post Theo Epstein, and it’s hard to disagree when Kyle Tucker is getting benched before he makes $500 million this winter as a free agent.
But even with Tucker slumping all the way to another team, this Cubs team is nasty, with elite players all over the map who all hit for average and play with serious coordination and flow. My limited viewing of the Cubs this year against the Red Sox felt like watching the single-best oiled machine in the league, so there’s still a lot to like here.
Biggest strength: Team is getting healthy at the right time
Biggest weakness: Farm system?
I mean, the Padres have other weaknesses, but it’s pretty amazing how gutted their prospect base is post-deadline. They have a really nice team that could beat anyone, but surely someone will run out of money eventually, right? Why even have minor league affiliates at this point?
In all seriousness, the Padres looked pretty damn great passing the Dodgers in the NL West. But then they got swept by said Dodgers, so now I’m not sure how seriously to take them in a conference that is getting scorched by a team from Milwaukee. They’re good, like they’ve been every year for a while. Will they put it together before all their players turn 40, are making $200 million a year and are reinforced by Single A pitchers batting second? Who knows.
Biggest strength: The single best pitcher in the postseason
Biggest weakness: Inconsistency at the top
The Tigers were sick, and then they were sickly. But now, they might be sick again, I’m just not quite sure. Tarik Skubal continues to be basically unhittable, though their midseason floundering made the American League look like free real estate for a host of then-intimidated contenders.
They aren’t the juggernaut they could have been, but they’re still very good in a weak conference. And there’s a team above them that has been much better as of late.
Tier 2: Elite teams that aren’t the Milwaukee Brewers
Biggest strength: Crazy good players everywhere
Biggest weakness: Bad injury at a bad time
Before this Zack Wheeler blood clot situation, I had smart people in my life picking the Phillies to win it all and doing so confidently. But now I don’t know what to think, considering losing your ace feels like losing your left arm in a conference this competitive.
Except… he’s not even their ace right now. Christopher Sanchez has been unironically better for the whole season, and they are teeming with options out of the bullpen. Kyle Schwarber is raking. Bryce Harper is too, and the Phillies have plenty of heat to back up the loss of Wheeler. It’s not great, but it’s hopefully not permanent either.
Biggest strength: They’re the Dodgers
Biggest weakness: They’re not last year’s Dodgers
A superteam with a super hangover, the Dodgers aren’t bad by any metric. But they are just objectively worse than they were last year, and you can tell they know it. They aren’t having as much fun, they aren’t getting as much attention, and last years fate accompli has turned into this year’s slog through the mud to a less-than-certain conclusion.
This happens to teams like this; it happened to my Boston Celtics last season. Everything is just a little bit worse the second time, everything just doesn’t work as well or feel as fresh. The Dodgers may just win the world series anyway because their bats are still swung by super soldiers and their pitching is getting healthy. But it definitely won’t be as fun.
Biggest strength: Stranglehold on the division
Biggest weakness: Injury uncertainty
The Blue Jays were written off by many at the beginning of the year as lame and boring in a division that just loaded up to destroy them. But then the Rays and Orioles kinda just… gave up, and the Blue Jays have been easily the best team in the AL East this season. This is just a OPS factory.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is hurt right now, and Jays fans will hope that doesn’t linger too long. But even if it does, the Blue Jays are at no risk of losing the division to Boston or New York, so they should be fine keeping it cautious.
Tier 1: The Milwaukee Brewers
Biggest strength: Winning every game
I’m not going to bemoan the point you can get on any talk show or power rankings or street corner in the midwest: this team is crazy. They never lose, are easily the overall one seed a look like they may just roll their way to the promised land on clutch win after clutch win. The NL is legit good, and it’s not going to be a cakewalk. But if I had anyone else in first, I’d be lying to your face.
