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Derik Queen trade analysis: How the Pelicans could have avoided costly mistake in Hawks deal

The New Orleans Pelicans’ trade for Derik Queen during the 2025 NBA Draft is bound to be remembered as one of the defining deals of its era. At best, it was incredibly bold; at worst, completely reckless. While not exactly Luka Doncic-for-Anthony Davis level bad, the Pelicans’ decision to trade their unprotected 2026 first-round pick for the right to draft Queen was littered with poor process, surrendering one of the most valuable future assets in the league for moving up 10 spots in the draft order to throw a dart on a late lottery pick. Queen’s excellent rookie year has made the deal even more fascinating, and untangling the trade feels critical now regardless of how it works out in the future.

Joe Dumars and Troy Weaver were hired to lead the Pelicans’ front office in April, and by June they had mortgaged the team’s future for a big bet on Queen. As it turns out, the Pelicans traded multiple premium picks in a loaded 2026 draft to take Queen at No. 13 overall, starting with a rare deal made during the 2025 NBA Finals with an active Finals participant.

The Indiana Pacers were down 3-2 in the NBA Finals when they swung a trade with the Pelicans to get their 2026 first-round pick back. Indiana had originally traded its unprotected first-rounder to Toronto for Pascal Siakam, and Toronto turned around and traded it to New Orleans for Brandon Ingram. Here’s the full details of the trade.

Pelicans get: No. 23 overall pick in 2025 NBA Draft

Pacers get: Own 2026 unprotected first-round pick

The Pelicans rightfully thought the Pacers were set up to be very good again in 2025-26, but Tyrese Haliburton’s calf strain suffered the day before the trade changed the calculus. Haliburton tore his Achilles during Game 7 a few days later, and the Pacers now had the option of tanking in 2025-26, which is exactly what’s happened.

For the Pelicans, the deal was always about moving up to acquire another lottery pick during the 2025 draft. After taking Oklahoma point guard Jeremiah Fears with their own pick at No. 7 overall, the Pelicans reportedly offered their unprotected first-rounder to every team behind them until they got a taker. The Atlanta Hawks accepted once it reached No. 13. Here’s the deal between the Pelicans and Hawks:

Pelicans get: No. 13 overall pick in 2025 NBA Draft, used to select Derik Queen

Hawks get: Pelicans’ unprotected 2026 first-round pick + No. 23 overall pick in 2025, used to select Asa Newell

Dumars indicated after the draft that the same trade was offered to the Raptors, Suns, Trail Blazers, and Bulls before Atlanta took it:

Weaver has a long history of targeting players from the DMV area, so it was no surprise he loved a Baltimore native and Maryland Terrapins standout like Queen. Queen has spent the early part of his rookie year rewarding Weaver’s faith, and it looks like he’s going to be an awesome, foundational piece for New Orleans to build around for years. The only problem is that the assets the Pelicans gave up to get him continue to look juicier by the day.

The Pelicans are currently the second worst team in the NBA with a 6-22 record. The Pacers are currently the fifth-worst team in the NBA with a 6-21 record. New Orleans could have had Fears — who has also had a super promising rookie season — with two major bites at the apple to land in the top-3 of the 2026 draft with Darryn Peterson, Cameron Boozer, and A.J. Dybatnsa waiting at the top.

The exact assets surrendered won’t be determined until lottery night, but it sure looks like New Orleans’ own pick will have a maximum 14 percent chance of landing at No. 1 overall, and the Pacers’ pick won’t be far behind. The process behind Dumars and Weaver’s trade was always an abomination, but there’s still a chance the trade could work out in New Orleans’ favor even if it probably isn’t likely.

Was there a way for New Orleans to still get Queen without giving up so much? I really think so even if it’s impossible to say for sure.

The Pelicans should have offered their unprotected 2027 pick instead

The top-3 of the 2026 draft was always considered special well before this college basketball season started. NBA teams knew for at least two years that Peterson, Boozer, and Dybantsa all had the talent to be the top overall pick, making 2026 the rare draft where getting No. 3 is almost is good as getting No. 1. Even with Queen on the roster, the Pelicans were still projected to be a bottom-three team in the West with the Utah Jazz and Phoenix Suns. In fairness, the Suns have drastically exceeded expectations to move into playoff position (they also don’t own their 2026 draft pick), and maybe New Orleans thought it could do the same thing. The only problem is that given Zion Williamson’s constant unavailability and the youth of the roster, it was always a bad bet.

If the Pelicans had to have Queen, they should have offered their unprotected 2027 pick instead.

New Orleans’ 2027 pick is still fantastic asset for Atlanta, and it would have given Queen and Fears two seasons to mature as winning players before New Orleans gave up control of its first-rounder. The Pelicans and Hawks are already entangled in the 2027 draft due to the Dejounte Murray trade: New Orleans will receive the more favorable of its 2027 first round pick and the Bucks’ 2027 first round pick, and Atlanta will receive the less favorable of the two protected for selections 1-4. The Pelicans could have given Atlanta full control of the better pick between themselves and the Bucks (who might be without Giannis by that time) and eliminated the protections.

Why is that better? Sharp draft scouts have long known the 2027 is looking pretty weak so far. Ask five NBA evaluators who’s going No. 1 overall in 2027 right now, and you might get five different answers, but not in a good way. I’d probably have Dylan Mingo at No. 1 at the moment, but he’s multiple tiers below the big three in 2026. Tyran Stokes is probably the front-runner for No. 1 in 2027 right now. Duke commit Cameron Williams, Houston commit Arafan Diane, Arkansas commit J.J Andrews, Caleb Holt, and Bruce Branch Jr. could also develop into the No. 1 overall pick 18 months from now. These players are all pretty good young prospects … but they’re not close to Peterson, Boozer, and Dybantsa.

The Pelicans need to hope their pick doesn’t land top-3

While I like the prospects behind Peterson, Boozer, and Dybantsa in the 2026 class — I’d have North Carolina forward Caleb Wilson at No. 4 overall right now, followed by some combination of Kentucky big man Jayden Quaintance, Houston point guard Kingston Flemings, and Arizona forward Koa Peat — there’s definitely a big drop-off after the third pick. Check out our latest 2026 NBA mock draft here.

If the Hawks walk away with the No. 4 or No. 5 pick in the lottery, there’s a good chance Queen will be better than whatever player goes in that spot. Sure, 10 years from now, we’ll probably look back on the 2026 draft and say someone drafted after No. 3 ended up better than Queen, but giving up anything after No. 3 should make New Orleans feel seriously relieved.

Queen could absolutely be an All-Star, but his defense is still an issue

Queen is such a captivating player in part because he has such well-defined strengths and weaknesses:

  • He’s one of the best drivers you will ever see for someone his size, listed at 6’9, 250 pounds. He can handle the ball like a guard and create a good look for himself or his teammates out of thin air. His big body allows him to play through contact, and he’s been an 80 percent free throw shooter so far when he’s sent to the foul line.
  • Queen is already a 78th percentile isolation scorer, posting 1.07 points per possession with 60.4 percent true shooting on the play type.
  • Queen’s passing was massively underrated entering the draft, and already looks awesome early in his rookie year.
  • Queen is undersized for a center and pretty slow for an NBA four.
  • Queen’s defense is going to be an issue in the NBA. Teams want a defensive anchor at the five, and that’s not Queen. It’s definitely possible he could be really good in a two-big look alongside Yves Missi or another big, but the numbers are currently pretty rough.
  • Queen doesn’t shoot threes yet. He’s 2-of-18 from three in his first 26 NBA games, and he didn’t shoot threes in college, either.

I had Queen No. 11 on my final 2025 big board because I was worried he didn’t have any role player equity as a potential No-3, No-D prospect. He needed to find a team that would let him rock out with the ball in his hands, and I was worried there just wasn’t many options. It turns out New Orleans has been very willing to give the ball to Queen now that Zion Williamson has again disappointed, and he’s already proving that he’s going to be a killer offensive player in an on-ball role.

EPM has Queen has a 50th percentile offensive player right now, and a fifth percentile defender. Queen is also days away from turning 21 years old at time of publish, meaning he’s quite a bit older than the other one-and-done rookies from his class.

Maybe Queen will get in better shape as he ages and his defense will improve. He’s already been a little better defensively as a rookie in some areas than I thought because he can get steals and deflections with his quick hands. Here’s his defensive numbers so far from NBARAPM, which are encouraging to some degree despite the rough all-around impact captured in EPM.

I’m still skeptical about how Queen’s defense scales on a winning team. Granted, having Herb Jones and Trey Murphy III next to him is basically an ideal fit, and so far lineups with all three have been solid.

The Pelicans were right to believe in Queen’s talent, but the process of the trade was always horrendous. I wouldn’t be too shocked if, five years from now, the general consensus is that the trade wasn’t so bad for New Orleans. That would require Queen to continue looking like an absolute hoss on offense while showing some defensive improvement, and the pick slipping outside of Boozer-Dybantsa-Peterson range.

The Pelicans really just should have traded a 2027 unprotected pick instead of 2026. For now, New Orleans just has to hope that Atlanta falls in the draft, and Queen continues to look great.

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