Could Modest Fashion Be the Answers to Luxury’s Slow Down?

LONDON — Hemlines are dropping to the floor and modesty is back in fashion as a consequence of a weak stock market, a cost of living crisis, the quiet luxury trend and tradwife content on social media.

Economist George Taylor came up with the hemline index in 1926, predicting that when hemlines rise, so does the stock market. The U.S. stock market remains strong overall, but economic observers in the U.S. are anxiously eyeing what comes next for its economy with inflation falling, inconsistent job numbers and the combative presidential election looming.

Given all of that, a number of fashion designers are letting the fabric roll fly freely.

Valentino’s new creative director Alessandro Michele delivered an expansive collection of 171 looks in mid-June for his resort 2025 collection before his scheduled runway debut at Paris Fashion Week. Ninety percent of the collection slanted toward modesty.

Modesty was also an underlying pin at the Roman fashion house’s couture spring 2024 show — not on the runway but on the front row, and this was long before Pierpaolo Piccioli’s exit from the brand.

Hosna Mohamed Rachid, the wife of Rachid Mohamed Rachid, chief executive of Mayhoola and chairman of Valentino, was the second most talked about guest at the show, and sat next to the Kardashian-Jenner clan, wearing a black-and-white ensemble with a matching hijab.

Online commentators wondered who the “nun” in the front row was and what she was doing at a fashion show.

Hosna’s look was a stark contrast from Piccioli’s last couture show, which opened with a long sheer top embellished with feathers and layered with a dark burgundy jacket, and various other liberal looks with low necklines, sheer shirts with visible nipples and bare shoulders.

Michele’s first touch at Valentino seems to be censoring the sheerness and nudity by covering up the skin and he’s clearly thinking about the new clientele of affluent Arab women he’s aiming to dress. Each look in his resort 2025 collection had almost more fabric than Princess Diana’s 25-foot wedding dress train — he added headwraps, overcoats and long sleeves to his lineup.

Nearly all the resort 2025 collections had a modest thread running through them, including Philosophy by Lorenzo Serafini, Safiyaa, Ferragamo, Moschino, Gucci, Alberta Ferretti and more.

“The first culture shift encouraging a return toward modesty came via the #MeToo Movement [in 2018]. With a rise in sexual misconduct in the workplace across industries, many women started dressing modestly to protect and offset the advances perpetuated by men,” said Ariella Immerman, chief marketing officer at The Reflective, a modest online marketplace that stocks Cynthia Rowley, Rebecca Taylor, Merlette and more.

“A new shift that’s playing further into modest dressing is the tradwife trend on TikTok right now,” she added.

Hannah Neeleman, otherwise known as Ballerina Farm, and Nara Aziza Smith have become the poster girls for the trend on social media. They post videos of themselves practicing traditional gender roles by making homemade recipes and raising children.

Neeleman has accumulated a following of 10 million on Instagram and Smith’s following on TikTok totals 9.3 million.

The shift toward modesty is also an antidote to the COVID-19 pandemic — after a period of maximalist dressing and high heels, consumers are returning to normality and dressing for the everyday.

“We’ve seen the demand for prints has softened in womenswear and in menswear there is a notable down trend in streetwear, with a corresponding increase in formalwear,” said Poppy Lomax, head of superbrands and international designer at Harrods.

Even Selfridges, synonymous with a younger affluent audience, is turning to modesty.

“Modest fashion, a significant aspect of the quiet luxury trend, has been a focus for our team,” said Bosse Myhr, the luxury department store’s director of menswear and womenswear.

Selfridges could be on its way to welcoming more Khaleeji customers with new investment — the term Khaleeji refers to nationals from the states of Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, the U.A.E. and Oman.

Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund, which already has a 10 percent stake in the Selfridges properties, is offering a cash price of 1 million British pounds for an additional 40 percent holding in the retailer.

The boost from PIF could help Selfridges establish itself again among the Khaleeji clientele that’s turning their eye to Harrods, which under the Qatar Investment Authority has been turning a profit.

Harrods and Selfridges aren’t the only ones benefiting from modest shoppers — online retailers are too.

At Net-a-porter, searches for the phrase “modest” had a 285 percent increase in the last three months. Shoppers had a particular interest in brands such as Khaite and Alaïa.

The retailer’s market director Libby Page links the trend to large television franchises such as “Succession,” “The New Look” and “Feud: Capote vs. The Swans.”

She added that fashion is “most definitely” becoming more modest because of the current economic or social turmoil taking place globally.

Even celebrities are taking note — the bare look is losing steam as they lean toward longer hemlines and opt for seduction rather provocation.

At the “Blink Twice” London premiere, Zoë Kravitz wore a red floor-length dress; Zendaya opted for a shimmering long black Louis Vuitton dress at the prelude to the Olympics, and at the “Dune: Part Two” London premiere, Anya Taylor-Joy appeared in a white Dior haute couture gown that resembled a futuristic nun.

Celebrity stylist Georgia Medley said there’s been an influx of requests from her clients for a more demure look.

“My clients want to feel sexy, but also chic. I always put chic before sexy so I find ways to tackle both and the result does often fall into being dressed modestly,” she said.

In recent months, she’s dressed her clients in more reserved pieces: Venus Williams in a white over-the-knee Gucci skirt; Adelayo Adedayo in a long white short-sleeved dress by Feben; Precious Lee in a floor-length Marine Serre moon crescent gown, and Freema Agyeman in a glittering high neck Michael Kors dress with side cutouts.

“People are consuming less because of the times we are in and learning to have cohesive wardrobes where it doesn’t always require wearing a sexy tight fitted dress to dinner,” Medley said.