The field of 12 teams has been narrowed to eight after the four first-round games, the four top-ranked teams in the nation get to join in on the College Football Playoff fun next week.
The first round games produced a pair of upsets (at least with respect to seeding) as Alabama went into Norman and knocked off Oklahoma, while Miami defeated Texas A&M in College Station. Ahead of the quarterfinals, our staff sat down to rank the last eight teams by their chances for a title.
After a round of voting, and some debates, here are the rankings.
The Hurricanes grabbed one of the final spots in the College Football Playoff field, and perhaps rewarded the Selection Committee by going into College Station and knocking off Texas A&M, a team that spent most of the year ranked inside the top four in the nation.
As a reward, they get a trip to the Cotton Bowl to face a team that spent most of the year ranked No. 1.
Miami’s defense stifled the Aggies on Saturday and, despite what some might think, Rueben Bain Jr. is going to be a problem the Buckeyes have to contend with. But Ohio State’s own talented defense, with their own first-round talents in Caleb Downs, Arvell Reese, and Sonny Styles, is going to make life difficult for Carson Beck and company.
The recipe all season for the Crimson Tide is what propelled Alabama to a win over Oklahoma.
Alabama got a pair of touchdown passes from Ty Simpson, and a timely pick-six from Zabien Brown to change the course of the game, leading the Crimson Tide to a 34-24 win over the Sooners.
Alabama’s running game has been an issue all season long, as the Crimson Tide average just 109.9 yards per game on the ground, ranking them just 118th in the nation. That could put the Rose Bowl into Simpson’s hands against Indiana, one of the best pass defenses in the country. Can Simpson deliver the game of his life? If the Crimson Tide are to advance, he might need to.
If there were any concerns about Ole Miss being unfocused in the wake of the Lane Kiffin saga, they were put to bed when they needed just three plays to go up 7-0 on Tulane on Saturday. Like they did in the regular season, the Rebels dominated the Green Wave in a 41-10 beatdown in Oxford to propel them to the quarterfinals.
Ole Miss never allowed this become a contest as the tandem of Trinidad Chambliss and Kewan Lacy ran all over Tulane with a combined three rushing touchdowns for the afternoon. The Rebs defense stepped to the plate with three turnovers on the other side of the line of scrimmage, the first one coming on the Wave’s opening drive where they were well in scoring position.
This sets up a New Year’s Day showdown with Georgia in the Sugar Bowl, a rematch of their regular season matchup that saw the Bulldogs prevail 43-35. Ole Miss boasts the No. 3 offensive in SP+ heading into this battle, but may have a problem on its hands. The aforementioned Lacy suffered a bruised shoulder in Saturday’s contest and considering that he punched in two touchdowns against the Dawgs back in October, his status will be something to monitor over the next week.
The Ducks raced out to a 34-6 lead over James Madison on Saturday night, looking like one of the best teams in the nation over the first 30 minutes.
But a lackluster second half saw the Dukes outscore Oregon 28-17, leading to the final score of 51-34. It was enough to move Oregon into the quarterfinals, but head coach Dan Lanning was not pleased.
”There’s a standard here,” said Lanning. “There’s certainly a standard of performance. Our players know that, and they know what championship football looks like — and the second half didn’t look like that.
”To not be able to come out and have the same success in the second half that we had the first half is certainly disappointing, and I think our players will certainly learn from that.”
Things will get much tougher from here, as the Ducks now get to take on the explosive Texas Tech offense along with one of the best defenses in the nation. Will we see the team we saw in the first half against James Madison, or the team we saw in the second?
Which one shows up likely tells the story of their Orange Bowl.
The Red Raiders leaned into the transfer portal this offseason, and that decision paid immediate dividends. The Red Raiders have an imposing defensive front featuring four transfers along the line, including potential first-round picks David Bailey and Romello Height. Linebacker Jacob Rodriguez — who played himself into Heisman trophy contention — is the heart and soul of this unit, which finished fifth in total defense and tied for sixth in the nation with an average of three sacks per game.
But do not sleep on Texas Tech’s offense, which finished second in the nation in scoring offense. Quarterback Behren Morton spreads the ball around well, and the Red Raiders were one of the best teams in the nation converting on third downs.
A potential stumbling block?
The Oregon defense, which finished fourth in the nation in total defense.
The Sugar Bowl will be a rematch of a game from earlier this season, where Georgia ripped off 17 points in the fourth quarter to top Ole Miss by a final score of 43-35.
Much has changed since then, most notably Lane Kiffin’s departure from Oxford for Baton Rouge. But in the rematch what has not changed is Georgia’s ability to win games in a variety of ways. While the Bulldogs showed the ability to win shootouts — their win over Ole Miss is one example, their win over Tennessee is another — Georgia has also been able to win ugly this year. Wins over Georgia Tech (16-9) and Auburn (20-10) are examples in that category.
Ole Miss will bring one of the top offenses in the nation to New Orleans. But Kirby Smart has been given a few extra weeks to prepare, and his 12th-ranked defense will be ready.
It’s important to remember that the Buckeyes were either a 4th-and-1 conversion, or a missed field chip shot, away from perhaps beating the Hoosiers and taking the No. 1 seed for themselves.
Instead, Ohio State slotted in as the No. 2 seed, and now they’ll see the lowest-ranked team left in the field in the Miami Hurricanes. Quarterback (and Heisman finalist) Julian Sayin orchestrates one of the best passing attacks in the nation, and talented wide receivers Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate should be close to 100% for the Cotton Bowl, after both missed time this season.
The bigger question for the Buckeyes is what awaits them in the Fiesta Bowl, should they get by the Hurricanes. Kirby Smart and the imposing Georgia defense would be a big hurdle ahead of a potential return to the National Championship Game.
Can the Hoosiers’ dream season roll on?
Indiana finished unbeaten for the first time since the 1945 season, when they went 9-0-1 in the Western Conference, the precursor to the Big Ten. Fernando Mendoza captured the school’s first Heisman Trophy, and the Hoosiers enter the CFP quarterfinals ranked No. 1.
They also get a favorable matchup in the Rose Bowl against No. 9 Alabama, avoiding Brent Venables’ stingy defense. But the Crimson Tide will present a challenge of their own, buoyed by a defense that turned Alabama’s season around and quarterback Ty Simpson, who rose to the occasion in the win over Oklahoma with a pair of touchdown passes. What could turn the tide in Indiana’s direction, beyond Mendoza, is their own defense. Alabama’s spotty run game could struggle against Indiana’s run defense — ranked fourth in the nation — which could put the Rose Bowl in Simpson’s hands.
Against Indiana’s 12th-ranked pass defense.
