The drama, the pageantry, the continued whining of Notre Dame. The College Football Playoff kicks off with the first round on Friday night with an absolute barnburner, and continues through Saturday. It might just feel like these are the four sacrificial lambs being led to the altar of the bye week teams, but lest we forget that in 2024 the low seeds won all four games in the quarter finals.
Expanding the playoffs has opened the door for more upsets, and that means we can’t really hang our hat on any team as a “lock” to do anything. Sprinkle in Indiana’s remarkable season and we have all the ingredients for one of the most memorable finishes to a college football season in recent memory.
Here are all the games in the first round, as well as our picks.
Alabama (9) vs. Oklahoma (8) — Dec. 19, 8 p.m. ET, ABC/ESPNWinner faces Indiana (1)
When these teams met in November it felt like a pivotal moment in the college football season. Alabama was handed its second loss of the season, which felt at the time like it was going to be enough to knock them out of the playoffs — but surprise, nothing can keep down the Tide, even a three-loss season after getting dogwalked in the SEC Championship game.
If we look back at that first meeting between the teams we saw an aberrant performance from Alabama, which sets the stage for this game a lot. Oklahoma was able to contain Alabama’s run game, while limiting their passing potential with a bend-don’t-break scheme over the top. Ty Simpson was able to get his yards through the air, but didn’t generate many explosive plays, and his first quarter pick-six ended up being the difference maker.
The big issue in looking at this game is that the Sooners have been lacking that standout offensive player who can take over a game. Their diverse three-headed run game with Tory Blaylock, Xavier Robinson, and John Mateer’s legs (which are better than his throwing arm) is able to do damage, but it’s going to come down to the defense stopping Alabama plays before they develop.
What decides this game is if we think Alabama is a better team than they showed when these teams met on November 15. That’s what will determine this game
James Dator pick: Alabama, 24-14
Mark Schofield pick: Oklahoma, 24-20
Miami (10) vs. Texas A&M (7) — Dec. 20, 12 p.m. ET, ABC/ESPNWinner faces Ohio State (2)
When the College Football Playoff was announced, many pointed to this game as the most likely spot for an upset.
Miami secured a spot in the field as an at-large team, thanks in part to an early-season win over Notre Dame and a victory over Florida State, back when the Seminoles looked like a good football team. Losses to SMU and Louisville seemed to doom their chances, but a strong finish to the season — Miami won their last four games by an average score of 38-10 — got them in.
As for the Aggies, after spending the majority of the season inside the top four in the rankings, a loss in the season finale to Texas dropped them down the rankings, and out of a first-round bye.
A common thread between these teams? Wins over Notre Dame early in the year. Miami won their game at home 27-24 back in Week 1, while Texas A&M went into South Bend and knocked off the Irish 41-40 in Week 3.
On paper this might be the best game of the weekend, featuring two explosive offenses and defenses that each bring a calling card to the table: Miami has the sixth-best scoring defense in the nation, while Texas A&M features one of the best pass rushing groups in the country.
James Dator pick: Texas A&M, 28-21
Mark Schofield pick: Miami, 21-17
Tulane (11) vs. Ole Miss (6) — Dec. 20, 3:30 p.m. ET, TNT/TruTVWinner faces Texas Tech (4)
The drama here is what makes this game so intriguing. This is Ole Miss’ first trip to the College Football Playoff, and admittedly much of the shine is gone from their stunning season after Lane Kiffin left the team following the Egg Bowl to take the job at LSU.
Mississippi absolutely dominated this game when they demolished Tulane 45-10 in late September, but there’s too much uncertainty to take that result and simply transpose it into the playoff. While Ole Miss had to deal with the distraction of Kiffin potentially leaving during the weekend of the Egg Bowl, this marks the first game where they’ll be led by Pete Golding, who took over head coaching duties after being the defensive coordinator this season.
There are a lot of unknowns about how the Rebels will respond to the upheaval inside the program. Do they fight to try and make a point to Kiffin about leaving, or is the emotion of it all too much to handle? At least on paper there’s not a lot of reason to think Tulane has the ammo to hang with Ole Miss, but stranger things have happened.
In order for Tulane to have any chance they will need a monster day from DL Harvey Dyson III, who has had just a phenomenal season with 7.0 sacks and 10.5 tackles for loss this year. If he can cause disruption at the point of attack and put Trinidad Chambliss in a blender then there’s a shot, but it’s still a long shot.
James Dator pick: Ole Miss, 42-14
Mark Schofield pick: Ole Miss, 28-20
James Madison (12) vs. Oregon (5) — Dec. 20, 7:30 p.m. ET, TNT/TruTVWinner faces Georgia (3)
Welcome to the College Football Playoff, James Madison.
As a reward, you get a trip to Eugene to take on an 11-1 Oregon team, with that one loss coming against the No. 1 team in the nation.
The Dukes are one of the best stories in college football, and there is a path for them to win this game. Their rushing attack is one of the nation’s best, led by Wayne Knight, who finished tenth in the nation in rushing yards (1,263) and seventh in the nation in yards per carry (6.65). Oregon has given up 107.2 yards per game on the ground, 20th-best in FBS, but the Dukes might be able to run the ball.
But if Oregon’s offense gets the Ducks out to an early lead, the nation’s third-best pass defense could turn this into a one-sided affair.
James Dator pick: Oregon, 34-7
Mark Schofield pick: Oregon, 31-14
