We got out first look at the projected College Football Playoff bracket on Tuesday night with a special on ESPN breaking down the Top 25, as well as who is in and out of the playoff right now. There’s plenty of football left to be played, but this is the litmus test for where everyone stands right now, and who needs to do some work down the stretch to find a way in.
As a reminder: The bracket operates with the five highest-ranked conference champions getting automatic bids, with the Top 4 getting byes in the first round. From there we go down the list by highest rank to finalize the bracket. Here’s how it looks right now:
Right now this means that Indiana (B1G), Texas A&M (SEC), BYU (Big 12), Virginia (ACC), and Memphis (AAC) get the automatic bids — with Memphis being the team to make it into the playoffs despite not being a ranked team.
Overall the rankings feel pretty fair, but there are a few spots that don’t feel quite right.
It’s a fairly small gripe to be No. 3 instead of No. 1, but the Aggies really had claim to the top spot in these rankings by the analytics. Texas A&M not only had the top-ranked strength of record (SOR) in the country, but an incredibly solid 15th Strength of Schedule (SOS).
The one thing that A&M doesn’t really possess is something that wows when it comes to to the eye test. That hasn’t really played a role in the past, but this season it seems the committee is very big on their gut feelings about teams, and leaning less on the raw numbers to make their decisions.
This is just an initial ranking. There’s a lot of football to be played, and the Aggies still have huge games against Missouri and Texas on their schedule. Those two games will definitely settle whether or not A&M is the third ranked team, the first in the nation, or if they somehow plummet out of the standings.
Very much seen as a bubble team entering this process, it’s a little wild to see the Irish sitting at No. 10 at the moment. It goes back to that “eye test” idea, with Notre Dame looking much better than when they started the season with back-to-back losses to Miami and Texas A&M.
It’s that Miami loss that really raises eyebrows. It shows that the committee believes heavily in Notre Dame, and are willing to ignore the fact that they were 15th in SOR and 23rd in SOS this season. The analytics say the Irish should be on the bubble, but they got a high ranking anyway.
Timing is everything in life, including in the College Football Playoff Rankings.
Had this initial poll been released a week ago, Georgia Tech might have been inside the Top 12. After their win over Duke, the Yellow Jackets ranked seventh in the AP Top 25, and they only slipped a spot after their win over Syracuse, dropping to No. 8.
But then came last week, and a difficult loss to NC State. Giving up 48 points to a team that improved to 5-4 with a victory is a tough look for Georgia Tech, and probably knocked them down a few more spots than even they expected.
Still, the Yellow Jackets have a few chances to improve their situation. Not only will they take on Georgia in their annual rivalry game, but Georgia Tech is well on track to secure a spot in the ACC Championship Game, which would give them another opportunity to impress the Committee.
They may be lower than expected now, but they have some chances to improve their resume over the next few weeks.
There’s no doubt Texas Tech belongs in the picture, it’s more whether No. 9 is a touch too high for the Red Raiders. If we look at their resume there’s a lot of big wins, but light on elite competition. With the No. 58 SOS in the nation it’s been a fairly easy road to this point.
A win over Utah is doing a lot of heavy lifting here, especially in light of losing to Arizona State in a game the Raiders should have won. What’s most fascinating about Texas Tech is that their future is going to be decided this weekend against BYU. Whatever happens in that game will likely determine their future.
