This has been an awesome season of men’s college basketball. There’s so much talent flowing through the sport right now thanks to an all-time great freshman class plus the influx of NIL money helping keep more players at the college level. Selection Sunday is just under one month away, and the list of potential national championship favorites is taking shape.
Last year’s Final Four featured all No. 1 seeds, which hadn’t happened since 2008. Three of those teams have a chance to get back to the Final Four again, but there’s a new class of contenders looking to push them.
Here’s our list of the national championship contenders with the start of the 2026 NCAA tournament just four weeks away. Apologies to the UConn Huskies, Michigan State Spartans, Kansas Jayhawks, and Gonzaga Bulldogs, who just missed the cut. If you’re just tuning into college basketball, be sure to check out Mike Rutherford’s season recap for diehard football fans.
8. Illinois Fighting Illini
I called Illinois a Final Four sleeper during the first week of January, and at this point it’s obvious that I was underselling them. The Illini have been one of the biggest winners of the NIL era thus far, and this might be Brad Underwood’s most talented team yet. Underwood has skilled size all over the floor, plus a breakout freshman guard who is poised to go from three-star recruit to top-10 NBA draft pick over the span of just one year. Keaton Wagler might be the best individual story in the sport this year, and his nuclear shooting as a 6’6 guard gives Illinois a chance to beat anyone in their way. Wagler is surrounded by European giants with soft touch from deep. Croatian twins Tomislav and Zvonimir Ivisic are 7-footers who can protect the rim, hit the offensive glass, and stretch the floor to three-point range. David Mirkovic is a savvy 250-pound forward who plays a high-IQ, high-motor game on both ends. Illinois’ glue guy is Kylan Boswell, a 3-and-D junior guard, and he’ll need to get back to 100 percent when he returns from injury for this team to have any chance. If Wagler stays on a heater, Illinois has the horses to compete with anyone.
It’s wild to think that Iowa State has never reached the Final Four despite being really good for for most of the past 40 years. Head coach T.J. Otzelberger has retained the core of this team for multiple years, and this is his big chance to break through. The Cyclones have a star-studded lineup headlined by senior forward Joshua Jefferson, one of the best players in the sport. Jefferson scores, defends, rebounds, and sets up teammates as a passer, and this year he’s a better three-point shooter than ever before. Speaking of shooting, junior forward Milan Momcilovic is having an all-time great shooting season by canning 54 percent of his three-pointers on more than 15 attempts per 100 possessions. Senior point guard Tamin Lipsey is super fast and strong at the point of attack, and freshman Killyan Toure is already one of the country’s better wing defenders. The defense is really good, and the offense has what it takes to win a region and maybe even a national championship if Jefferson dominates and the shooters make the most of their opportunities from three.
Florida feels pretty different from their national championship season a year ago, mostly because superstar guard Walter Clayton Jr. is in the NBA now. This year’s Gators started slow with a new backcourt needing time to gel, but lately they’ve once again been looking like one of the best teams in the country. Florida’s re-emergence in the national conversation starts on the defensive end, where returners Thomas Haugh, Alex Condon, and Rueben Chinyelu go 6’9, 6’10, 6’11 across the front line. The Gators only let teams shoot 44.5 percent on two-pointers, the fifth-best mark in DI, and they’re also top-5 on the defensive glass. Florida is even better on the offensive glass, which has earned them extra possessions as the new backcourt of Boogie Fland and Xaivian Lee has struggled to shoot from deep. Florida is making only 29.5 percent of its three-pointers this year, and they have to be better in that area to really go on a run. Still, their size and defense give them a super high floor, and we already know head coach Todd Golden can push the right buttons when it matters most.
Purdue has been considered a front-runner for the natty dating back to the moment Braden Smith and Trey Kaufman-Renn announced they were returning to school for their senior seasons. While they’ve had some slip-ups to this point with losses to Iowa St., UCLA, Illinois, and Indiana, the Boilermakers still have an elite offense, a solid defense, a great head coach, and the best possible guard to lead them through the bracket. Smith has been the conductor of an offense that ranks No. 2 in America right now, and he continues to blend high-level shooting and playmaking as well as any guard in America. Kaufman-Renn and Fletcher Loyer have been Smith’s running mates since they were all complementary pieces around Zach Edey, but it’s new additions like Oscar Cluff and Daniel Jacobsen that raise the ceiling for this group. I’m a bit concerned about Purdue’s defense because they give up a ton of threes and don’t really have the perimeter length to contest shooters. The shot-blocking and rebounding is close to elite though, so if opposing teams are missing shots, Purdue should be able to capitalize. Head coach Matt Painter is the best coach in the sport without a national championship, and this team will have every opportunity to finally get him one.
Arizona has been crushing all season with a nice mix of holdover veterans and instant impact freshmen making up the rotation. Two key returners, point guard Jaden Bradley and big man Motiejus Krivas, are in their third year with the program and playing their best basketball yet, and are among the best players in the country at their positions. The newcomers are every bit as intriguing. Koa Peat is a bruising 5-star forward who has lived up the recruiting hype, and he’s been excellent as a role player who can finish, defend, and rebound despite being a poor three-point shooter. Shooting guard Brayden Burries got off to a slow start to his freshman season, but has been outstanding lately, adding value as an off-ball shooter who can also go get a bucket off the dribble. Arizona isn’t very deep and they don’t take or make a lot of threes, but they’re huge, physical, and have proven they can grind out wins on the defensive end. It’s time for head coach Tommy Lloyd to make it past the Sweet 16 in his fifth-year with the program.
Kelvin Sampson might be the best coach in college basketball, and he’s spent a lifetime trying to prove it with a national championship. His Cougars were heartbreakingly close last year before falling short in the title game, but it feels like this year’s team has even more talent. Sampson brought in the best recruiting class of his career with a trio of McDonald’s All-Americans in Kingston Flemings, Chris Cenac Jr., and Isiah Harwell, and each will be an important piece on this March run. Flemings is a total stud at point guard and should be a top-5 NBA draft pick with his combination of driving, playmaking, and pull-up shooting. Cenac has made major strides throughout the year as a raw but long big man who can shoot it from the perimeter. The holdovers from last year’s Final Four team are also still making a huge impact, with Joseph Tugler protecting the paint defensively with his 7’6 wingspan, Emanuel Sharp acting as a key 3-and-D guard with a history of big shot making, and Milos Uzan providing scoring and playmaking at lead guard. Houston is top-10 on both ends of the floor right now, and with Flemings playing at an elite level they no longer feel like a team who has to win games on the defensive end. This may be the most balanced team of the Sampson era, and it has a chance to go down as the best, too.
Cameron Boozer has won big at every level, and now he’s ready to show it can carry over to college. Boozer has been the best player in college basketball this season as a true freshman, proving himself to be every bit as outstanding as Cooper Flagg was a year ago. Flagg got Duke to the Final Four, but Boozer can lead Duke even further this season. There isn’t a more versatile offensive player in the sport: Boozer can drive and pass like a guard, shoot like a wing, or bully opponents on the glass or as an interior scorer like a big man. He’s not the most explosive athlete, but he makes up for it by being the smartest player on the floor as well as the most skilled. Boozer’s supporting cast is solid: sophomore center Pat Ngongba offers an important defensive complement to protect the paint, Isaiah Evans can get going as a microwave scorer, and Dame Sarr is a big, athletic wing who can defend and run the floor on the break. I would feel better about Duke’s title chances if one of the guards starts to pop between now and the tournament. Otherwise, Boozer has to carry a huge offensive load and can’t get in foul trouble or go down with a nagging injury. He’s good enough to take this team all the way, but some more help would be nice.
Michigan has been dominating since day one and enters the week with one of the best adjusted net-ratings for any team since KenPom started tracking the sport in 1997. Head coach Dusty May largely built this roster through the transfer portal, and it has instantly gelled even against a loaded schedule. Michigan’s frontcourt is the best in the sport with three transfers in Yaxel Lendeborg (UAB), Morez Johnson (Illinois), and Aday Mara (UCLA) with an elite combination of length and strength who all bring different skills to the table. Lendeborg is the biggest star here, and he’s capably made the transition from mid-major point-center to a two-way wing who can space the floor, crash the glass, and erase shots defensively. Johnson is a mobile paint defender and efficient rim scorer, while Mara is a 7’3 big who brings elite passing and solid rim protecting chops. The guards have developed nicely with Elliot Cadeau having his best three-point shooting season ever while also finding scorers all over the floor as a playmaker. True freshman Trey McKenney has been an important shooter, and it feels like he could take another step forward at any time. Add in Nimari Burnett, Roddy Gayle, and LJ Cason, and Michigan has the depth and the star-power needed for a national championship run. The Wolverines have been the best team all season, and it will be hard to pick anyone else come March unless their guard play starts to fall off.
