The 6-6 Kansas City Chiefs host the 7-5 Houston Texans on Sunday Night Football. It’s a game most didn’t expect to be as important as it is. Both teams are on the bubble for the playoffs, with the Texans currently grabbing the final No. 8 spot and the Chiefs out of the playoffs with the No. 10 spot. With five games left, every game is a must win game for both teams.
As far as offensive playmakers go, both teams are fairly healthy, but the Chiefs are hurting on their offensive line.
Patrick Mahomes and company can get away with offensive line injuries, but against the Texans strong pass rush, it will be tougher than normal. Overall, this game sets up for a defensive battle, as the Texans are the best pass defense in the league based on EPA, DVOA and fantasy stats. They haven’t allowed a single quarterback to top 20 fantasy points in a game this season.
The Chiefs defense has also been playing good football, but not to the smothering extent of the Texans. Of course, the Texans offense isn’t as good as the Chiefs, so I expect the Chiefs defense to be able to hold their own, but they are overall an easier defense to put fantasy points on, depending on how well your offensive line can handle their frequent blitzes.
Below we will take a look at the best DFS plays for this Sunday night showdown.
Rashee Rice, WR, Chiefs (FLEX $13,200, CPT $19,800)
At this point, Rice is truly the key to the Chiefs offense. Of course, Patrick Mahomes is the driver, but if he doesn’t have Rice, the offense is stuck in the mud. The Texans have Derrick Stingley, who might be the best corner in the league, but Kansas City knows how to get Rice the ball and avoid lockdown matchups by moving Rice around. The combination of Mahomes’ ability, Andy Reid’s play calling, and Rice’s quickness and hands near the goal line, make covering him in short areas extremely tough.
Nico Collins, WR, Texans (FLEX $12,000, CPT $18,000)
Collins saw 31% of the targets in C.J. Stroud’s first game back fro a concussion and on the season has had the fourth-highest target rate when the defense blitzes. Steve Spagnuolo’s defense blitz’s on 31% of plays, which ranks third in the league. Collins should see plenty of short, hot read targets while also getting his usual WR1 work.
Patrick Mahomes, QB, Chiefs (FLEX $12,800, CPT $19,200)
I don’t expect C.J. Stroud to run much, but Mahomes will take off and a rushing touchdown is very much a possibility in a must win game against the top defense in the league. We know he runs more in must win games and there’s a good chance he spreads the ball around a bunch, making it tough to pick the right receiver not names Rice.
Isiah Pacheco, RB, Chiefs (FLEX $7,000, CPT $10,500)
Before Pacheco’s injury, he had been clearly playing ahead of Kareem Hunt, but in his first game back last week, Pacheco took a backseat to Hunt. I think we can predict that Pacheco at least evens the touches and snap count out, with a chance that he takes over as the lead back once again. Hunt still has more touchdown upside, but Pacheco’s price has fallen enough to make him a useful value play with a good chance at seeing an uptick in work.
Dalton Schultz, TE, Texans (FLEX $5,800, CPT $8,700)
Schultz has a good price for his usual strong floor built on 7.5 targets per game over the last seven games. There’s nothing flashy here, but compared to the rest of the team, he is far ahead of anyone not named Nico Collins in usage.
Tyquan Thornton, WR, Chiefs (FLEX $3,600, CPT $5,400)
Thornton didn’t see a target last week against the Cowboys, which shows you exactly what his floor is. But, he still was out there 16 snaps and he usually gets one or two deep targets a game, In a game that could be low scoring, Thornton could be a strong play with just one long touchdown catch.
