We’re down to just four teams in the 2025-26 College Football Playoff and the semifinal round and the margins are only going to get tighter in these semifinal showdowns. Miami and Ole Miss will have a true clash of styles when meeting in the Fiesta Bowl on Thursday night and that will precede a Big Ten rematch in the Peach Bowl on Friday night with Oregon and Indiana doing battle once again.
We’ll deep dive these matchups and make some picks using stats from our friends at Game on Paper, as well as the latest SP+ rankings from ESPN’s Bill Connelly. Let’s see who will advance to the national title game in Miami on January 19.
No. 10 Miami vs. No. 6 Ole Miss (Fiesta Bowl)
Date: Thursday, January 8, 2025
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
TV channel: ESPN
Odds: Miami -3.5, 52.5
When Ole Miss has the ball…
Ole Miss’ thrilling 39-34 victory over Georgia in the Sugar Bowl proved to be a star-making performance for Trinidad Chambliss. Seriously, go back and watch the second half. He was electric, avoiding danger by channeling his inner Johnny Manziel in the backfield to lead the Rebels back from a nine-point deficit. The game turned on a dime when Chambliss completed a 36-yard pass to Harrison Wallace III on 4th and 3 in the third quarter and you can even pinpoint the exact moment where he took over the game…
Chambliss and the Rebel offense stepping up late like they did was huge, especially considering that the roles were practically reversed in their regular-season matchup. It was a reflection of what Ole Miss has been doing all year as it enters Thursday’s semifinal matchup ranked No. 2 in offensive SP+ with an average of 488.8 yards per game. The chaos of Lane Kiffin’s departure has not affected this unit in the postseason so far and they’ve been helped by LSU-bound offensive staffers like Charlie Weis Jr. and Kevin Smith being allowed to stick around. They’ve also been helped by All-American running back Kewan Lacy being a scoring machine, as he punched in both his 22nd and 23rd touchdowns of the season in the Superdome on New Year’s Day. However, it should be noted that Ole Miss is ranked 96th in rushing success rate (39%) even with Lacy’s brilliance, so keep that in mind when they try to run on early downs. Because it may be an issue…
Miami has put on back-to-back defensive masterclasses in the playoffs so far and completely shut down Ohio State in a 24-14 victory in the Cotton Bowl on New Year’s Eve. Masterclass is an appropriate term for what the unit did to the reigning national champions as they produced a 19% havoc rate in the contest as the quartet of Akheem Mesidore, Rueben Bain Jr., Marquise Lightfoot, and Wesley Bissainthe combined for seven TFLs and five sacks in the contest. They defense buried the Buckeyes into a hole that they could not climb out of in the second quarter when Keionte Scott perfectly read a screen pass intended for Brandon Inniss, turning a surefire scoring drive for OSU into points for the Canes to put them up 14-0…
This is exactly what Mario Cristobal and the Hurricane brass envisioned when they assembled this defense and they enter this game ranked No. 6 in defensive SP+. Opponents have flat out not been able to run the football as they’ve been held to an average of 83.4 rushing yards on just 2.8 yards per rush throughout the year. Their front seven in particular has a stuff rate of 21.8%, so the aforementioned Lacy is going to have his work cut out for when trying to move the ball.
When Miami has the ball…
Miami doesn’t necessarily set the world on fire offensively, but gets the job done with efficiency and ball control…the exact way that Cristobal wants to play. The Hurricanes have an average time of possession of 33:32 that ranks fifth in the country and this ability to control the clock is what allowed them to down the Buckeyes by 10 points despite being out-gained on offense. Clinging onto a three-point lead with just under six minutes left, Carson Beck, Mark Fletcher Jr., and CharMar Brown helped sustain a five-minute drive that resulted with Brown punching in a touchdown with 55 seconds left to put them up by two scores.
This ball control approach works for Miami as long as its not shooting itself in the foot with turnovers and their only two losses of the season were games where it gave the football away on multiple occasions. Malachi Toney in particular has had some issues hanging onto the ball during these playoffs as fumbled near midfield in the fourth quarter of the quarterfinals against Texas A&M before coughing it up twice against Ohio State last week.
Securing a few of those turnovers could definitely benefit an Ole Miss defense that has somewhat struggled to generate takeaways this season, having just eight interceptions and six fumble recoveries heading into this matchup. It certainly helped the Rebs establish some separation from the Bulldogs in the Sugar Bowl as Suntarine Perkins’ strip sack of Gunner Stockton helped set up a touchdown that put them up by two scores in the fourth.
Ole Miss has the “weakest” defense of the four remaining teams with a No. 18 ranking in defensive SP+, but its biggest strength has been limiting explosives through the air. The Rebs have held opposing quarterbacks to just a 36.3% passing success rate and we saw Stockton struggle to get into a rhythm in New Orleans on New Year’s Day by completing under 60% of his passes for just 203 yards. The flip side of this, however, is that they can be got on the ground as they’ve yielded over 2,000 yards on 4.19 yards per carry this season. They did hold top UGA tailback Nate Frazier to just 86 yards on the ground in the Superdome and it will be imperative for them to do the same to Fletcher.
- Miami has been elite when it comes to winning the field position battle as its +5.3 net field position ranks seventh in the country. Opposing offenses are typically starting their drives on their own 24 against the Hurricanes, creating an uphill battle against a relentless defense.
- Ole Miss is ranked No. 1 in special teams SP+, thanks in large part to the leg of kicker Lucas Carneiro. He is a perfect 55-55 on extra points this year and 27-30 on field goal attempts, notably 11-13 on attempts of 40+ yards. He booted two 50-yarders in the first quarter of the Sugar Bowl, so he can be trusted to put points on the board from almost anywhere.
Trinidad Chambliss was able to go nuclear against a tough Georgia defense in the fourth quarter last week and we’ll see if he can do it again against a Miami unit that is playing that has bowed up in the playoffs. Bain, Mesidore, and company may not get to him like they got to Julian Sayin in the Cotton Bowl last week in terms of sacks, but they should be able to apply enough pressure to throw him off rhythm. Like their last two playoff games, I think the Hurricanes do juuusssttt enough to pull out a close win and they earn the opportunity to play the national championship game in their home stadium.
No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 1 Indiana (Peach Bowl)
Date: Friday, January 9, 2025
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
TV channel: ESPN
Odds: Indiana -3.5, 48.5
When Oregon has the ball…
Oregon fell 30-20 in the first matchup between these two teams back in October and a huge part of it was their inability to fully capitalize on sustained drives. The Ducks had six drives that went for 6+ plays that afternoon and out of them, they could only muster up three field goal attempts, a turnover on downs, and a punt before running out of time on their final possession late in the fourth. Their only offensive touchdown of the game came on a 44-yard strike from Dante Moore to Malik Benson, one that saw the receiver burn IU safety Amare Ferrell on a basic go-route.
The Ducks had similar struggles making good use of their possessions in their 23-0 shutout of Texas Tech in the Orange Bowl last week and both of those games were the rare times where we’ve seen this offense sputter. Oregon boasts the No. 7 unit in offensive SP+ heading into this showdown and has been extremely efficient at moving the football, ranking ninth in available yards gained (59.4%), 13th in early-downs EPA per play (0.11), and 22nd in success rate (45.1%). Moore hasn’t been perfect through two games of the playoffs, but he’s still been an effective conductor of the offense by completing 75% of his passes with passes to at least seven different receivers in both contests. There will be some extra pressure on the QB to carry the offense in this one with productive freshman running back Jordan Davidson being ruled out with a broken clavical.
On the other side of the line of scrimmage is Indiana’s defense and buddy, they beat the breaks off Alabama in their 38-3 Rose Bowl victory. Just ask Ty Simpson…
The Hoosiers physically dominated the Crimson Tide in Pasadena and were all over them from the word go, registering an 82% stop rate and a 24% havoc rate on New Year’s Day. Only one of Alabama’s drives went for longer than 50 yards and that came late in the third quarter with the game already well in hand. Many pointed out Indiana dominated Alabama the way Nick Saban’s early Crimson Tide teams used to manhandle opponents and it’s only fitting that Curt Cignetti was on those early Tide staffs.
IU’s defense has been a buzzsaw all season long and the simplest way to quantify its dominance is the fact that its yielding the second-least points per game in the country (11.1) and the third-least yards per game (266.1). The unit is also getting off the field quickly as they’re facing just 56 plays per game and that ability to force three-and-outs allows them to stay fresh deep into ballgames. It goes without saying that Moore and company are going to have to figure out how to stay on the field to produce a different outcome than their regular season encounter..
When Indiana has the ball…
The Indiana offense was insanely efficient in the Rose Bowl and didn’t waste its opportunities to bury Bama. Heisman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza was nearly perfect going 14-16 for 193 yards and three touchdowns while the running back tandem of Kaleon Black and Roman Hemby combined for nearly 200 rushing yards and two scores on the ground. It also help to have big, athletic receivers like Charlie Becker and Elijah Sarratt that can go up and make big-time catches against anyone.
That has been standard operating procedure for Indiana all season long as it boasts the No. 4 success rate in the entire country and that ability to stay ahead of schedule is what allowed the offense to slip past Oregon in Eugene during the regular season. In fact, the Hoosiers have been so effective on early downs that they have the best average third-down distance at 5.41 yards. It’s hard to beat a team that nickel-and-dime you to death down the field and the Ducks will at least get a second crack at ot.
Oregon itself is coming off a dominant defensive performance in its quarterfinal showdown against Texas Tech, holding the Red Raiders to arguably the worst offensive performance of the playoff era. Our offense is struggling to put points on the board? That’s no problem, we’ll just have our potential first-round defensive end Matayo Uiagalelei help them out with a strip sack deep in Tech’s own territory.
The Ducks have the No. 3 defense in SP+ heading into the Peach Bowl and there are two particular areas they’ve been particularly elite in. They’re in the 99th percentile in EPA per dropback, as well as on early downs EPA. As just mentioned, those are two areas that Mendoza and the Hoosiers have excelled in, so something’s got to give. Holding IU to just mere medium gains on 1st and 2nd downs could make all the difference in Oregon being able to triumph in this rematch.
- Like Miami, Indiana also excels at ball control, ranking sixth in the country with an average time of possession of 33:25. The Hoosiers held the ball for 33:10 in the regular-season victory over the Ducks and one would imagine Cignetti and company to aim for that exact number in Atlanta.
- Oregon is holding opposing QB’s to a 49.87% passing, which is good for third in the entire country. Fernando Mendoza had just two games where he finished under 60% with at least 20 pass attempts this season, so we’ll see if the Ducks can make it a third.
It’s hard to beat a team twice and Oregon is going to be fired up about the opportunity to avenge their only loss of the season. Dan Lanning himself will tell you that they haven’t played their best in the playoffs so far and yet both of their games resulted in three-score blowout victories. However, Indiana looks like the most complete team in the country right now and it’s hard to see anyone knocking them off after they physically embarrassed Alabama in Pasadena on New Year’s Day. I think this game will play out similarly to their regular-season clash with the Hoosiers triumphing and punching their ticket to the title game in Miami.
