February 12, 2026
Does Cardi B’s cameo during Bad Bunny’s halftime show counts as a performance?
Cardi B’s brief on-screen appearance dancing during Bad Bunny’s Super Bowl halftime show has sparked a major dispute in the online prediction-betting world.
A formal complaint filed with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) centers on confusion over Cardi B’s role in the halftime show, whether she actually performed or if her brief dancing appearance counted at all, The Independent reports. The uncertainty left major prediction-betting platforms Kalshi and Polymarket scrambling to decide how to settle millions of dollars in wagers.
More than $47.3 million was wagered on Kalshi’s “Who will perform at the Big Game?” market, where contracts are priced between $0 and $1 to reflect traders’ views on the likelihood of an outcome. These prediction markets operate through simple yes-or-no event contracts, with prices fluctuating based on what participants are willing to pay, a signal of how probable they believe an event is.
While Cardi B joined singers Karol G and Young Miko, along with actors Jessica Alba and Pedro Pascal, dancing on a “starry front porch” during the halftime show, full musical sets by Ricky Martin and Lady Gaga blurred the line over whether Cardi’s non-singing appearance qualified as an actual performance.
Citing “ambiguity” over whether Cardi B’s halftime appearance qualified as a performance, Kalshi froze trading and refunded users at the last settled price. Polymarket, which saw more than $10 million in contract volume, took the opposite approach, ruling that Cardi B did perform, a decision that has sparked pushback from traders. A final resolution is expected on Feb. 11.
However, a trader who backed a “Yes” outcome on Kalshi has filed a complaint with the CFTC, alleging the platform violated the Commodity Exchange Act in how it settled the Cardi B contract and is seeking $3,700 in damages.
Despite the controversy, Super Bowl Sunday proved hugely profitable for betting platforms. Kalshi reported a record-breaking $1 billion in total trading volume, a more than 2,700% jump from last year.
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