The wins continue to roll in for Caitlin Clark and the Indiana Fever. The Fever may have started the WNBA season 1-8, but over the last 15 games, they’re tied with the Lynx for the third best record in the league at 10-5.
As such, a team that once appeared to be destined for the lottery now seems to be one of the more formidable teams in the mix for a… WNBA championship.
It sounds crazy at first glance. How could a team that once seemed destined to be historically bad now be in the mix for a title?
For one, a much as Indiana struggled early on, the team doesn’t lack talent. Head coach Christy Sides routinely said that there was hardly any time for practice at the beginning of the season, and it was clear this team needed it.
But, no matter how you slice it, the Fever boast three All Stars: Kelsey Mitchell, Caitlin Clark, and Aliyah Boston. At her best, Mitchell is one of the most efficient guards in the league — out of guards who average at least 17 points per game, Mitchell is one of only two who shoot above 45% (Kahleah Copper is the other). Boston was the unanimous Rookie of the Year last year, and among forwards averaging at least 10 points per game, she has the highest field goal percentage at 52.7%.
Meanwhile, Caitlin Clark is on pace to have the most assists by any WNBA player ever in a single season, and over her last 10 games, she’s the sixth leading scorer in the league at 20.4 points per game. This trio is legit.
The Fever are probably still a few years away — but what if they’re not?
At 13-15, the Fever have the 7th-best record in the WNBA, so, as it currently stands, they’d face the Sun in the first round of the playoffs. They’re still a below .500 team, and have a ways to go before they can really be considered one of the leading contenders, but something that seemed completely off the table just a few months ago now appears to be within reach.
Caitlin Clark is starting to look like Caitlin Clark, Kelsey Mitchell like one of the more formidable scorers in the league, and Aliyah Boston like a post player who can hang with anyone. There’s something special brewing.
All of that was on display on Sunday against the Mercury, when Clark put together another strong performance and finished with 23 points, 9 assists, and 5 rebounds. Kelsey Mitchell continued her offensive excellence with a 27-point outing, shooting 10-19 from the field and 5-8 from three, while Lexie Hull had her best game of the season off the bench, scoring 22 points on 6-7 from three. That win came on the heels of a win over the Storm — back-to-back victories against two middle-of-the-pack teams, but veteran teams slated for the playoffs, nonetheless.
Hull is not always going to give you 22 points a night, but she’s currently shooting 40.5% from three. There’s also NaLyssa Smith, who has averaged a near double-double and served as a reliable starter.
The main thing holding back Indiana right now is the defense, but even that’s on a positive upswing. Over their last 10 games, the Fever have the 7th-best defense in the league — far from elite, but much better than where they were early on, which was by far the worst defense in the WNBA. They’ve also grabbed the highest percentage of rebounds of any team over their last 15 games. Continuing to improve on the defensive end will be key for Indiana if they’re going to make a real playoff push. Hull, as one of the better point of attack defenders in the WNBA, could be key on that end of the floor as the Fever look to improve.
Over their last 15 games, the Fever have had the league’s second-best offense, second to the Liberty, which has far and away been the best team in the league. They’ve also had the highest effective field goal percentage. The craziest thing about the Fever offense’s success is that Clark hasn’t really found her three-point shot yet — she’s currently shooting 32.8% from beyond the arc, well below her college average of 37.7%. When her shooting catches up to her potential, it’s only going to add another dynamic to the Fever offense.
Liberty, Aces remain the favorites to win WNBA championship
Still, it’d be hard to argue that any team outside of the Liberty is the favorite to win the WNBA championship. New York has been remarkably consistent, they’ve been there before, and at 23-4, they boast the best record in the league by a considerable amount.
And, if you were going to make that argument, it’d probably have to be in favor of the Aces. At 17-9, they’ve been more inconsistent this season than in years prior, but still the two-time defending champions, and have the undeniable best player in the world.
There’s also the Lynx, who have the league’s best defense, a slew of sharpshooters like Kayla McBride, and Napheesa Collier. The Sun have been near the top of the league all year long, and have a veteran group that has been there before.
So, there’s plenty of teams that could be in the mix for that elusive WNBA title. Those four — the Aces, Liberty, Lynx, and Sun — teams should be the betting favorites to win it all. But if the pieces can continue to come together for Indiana — and if the defense can step it up a notch — they might not be as far away as it seems.
The first round of the WNBA playoffs is a best-of-three series. The Fever, with their dynamic offense and Caitlin Clark’s passing prowess, are better equipped to upset a contender than most bottom-seeded teams. All it will take is two wins. Then, there are just four teams left. A best-of-five-series creates less room for an upset, but if Indiana can continue trending in the right direction, it’s not completely off the table.
The Fever have some good tests coming up — on Saturday, they travel to Minnesota, where they’ll face the best defense in the league. Next week, they’ll look for their first win against the Sun (who they’re currently 0-3 against, but all three losses came earlier in the season). In September, back-to-back home games against the Aces will give Indiana a chance to see how they stack up against the defending champions. Those four games, along with the other eight games left on the schedule, will give us a clearer picture of how different the August Fever are from the May Fever. Right now, we’re seeing signs that those teams are very different.
