As we head into the final weekend of the regular season for the major conferences, it’s impossible to ignore that Selection Sunday is a mere nine days away.
With bracket projections popping up faster than the early spring buds on the trees and plants outside, let’s look at the eight teams that have the most work to do over the next nine days to avoid having the most anxiety-riddled Sunday of their 2026.
vs. Indiana (Saturday)
Big Ten Tournament
Current SB Nation Projection: IN as 10-seed (last 4 byes)
It feels like the Buckeyes have been talked about as a bubble team since Christmas. They have one of the best players in the country in Bruce Thornton and the predictive metrics say they should be in the field, but the big holdup with Jake Diebler’s team has been and continues to be its woeful record (currently 2-10) in Quadrant-I opportunities.
Although it’s not a Quad I contest, OSU can help itself significantly with a home win over fellow bubble boy Indiana on Saturday. A win there and/or a victory in their first Big Ten Tournament game, and the Buckeyes should feeling at least comfortable-ish on Selection Sunday.
at Ohio State (Saturday)
Big Ten Tournament
Current SB Nation Projection: Last team IN
Indiana stayed on the bubble by snapping its ill-timed four-game losing streak with a much-needed 77-64 win over Minnesota on Wednesday night. A road win over Ohio State on Saturday would be massive, but Darian DeVries’ club would still probably need another win at the Big Ten Tournament to full overly confident about their place in the field of 68.
At last month’s mock NCAA Tournament selection event, Dan Gavitt stated that the Selection Committee will rely heavily on the wins above bubble metric when it comes to the selecting of teams. Predictive metrics will be the more important tool when it comes to seeding. That’s not exactly music to Hoosier fans’ ears. IU currently sits fairly pretty in most predictive metrics, but is just 48th in WAB.
The Hoosiers have some work to do, and they also are going to be one of the teams rooting hard against potential conference tournament bid thieves over the nine days ahead.
vs. Cincinnati (Saturday)
Big 12 Tournament
Current SB Nation Projection: IN as 10-seed (last 4 byes)
Jamie Dixon’s team has gotten hot at the perfect time, winning four straight and seven of its last eight. Included in that stretch is a huge home win over Iowa State and an equally sparkling road victory over Texas Tech. If the Horned Frogs can take care of a surging Cincinnati team — which suddenly has thoughts of playing its way onto the bubble as well — on Saturday, they should be feeling good about their chances even if they go one-and-done in Kansas City.
Troubling non-conference losses to New Orleans and Notre Dame (both at home) are the major hold ups here, but the Committee has shown year after year that who you’ve beaten matters more than who you’ve lost to. A winning record in the best conference in the sport plus neutral court wins over Florida and Wisconsin should speak pretty loudly on Selection Sunday.
at Alabama (Saturday)
SEC Tournament
Current SB Nation Projection: Last Four IN
There is no more controversial bubble team in America right now than the Auburn Tigers. The reason is fairly straightforward: They’re three games under .500 in conference play and barely above .500 for the season overall. As previously stated, who you’ve beaten matters more than who you’ve lost to at this time of the year, BUT … at some point it feels like having nearly as many losses as wins should factor into the equation as well.
Thus is the conundrum with Steven Pearl’s Auburn squad, one which has been defeated 14 times, but also has won at Florida, over Arkansas and against St. John’s on a neutral court.
If the Tigers lose at Alabama on Saturday and in their first game of the SEC Tournament, a 16-16 record would almost certainly (surely to God) leave them out of the field. Upset the Tide and win at least one in Nashville, however, and you may have a healthy dose of folks pissed off that they’re seeing an 18-15 team on their printable bracket.
West Coast Conference Tournament
Current SB Nation Projection: Last Four IN
It’s been exactly 30 years since the last time the Santa Clara heard its name called on Selection Sunday, but legendary head coach Herb Sendek has the Broncos on the verge of returning to the promised land.
Santa Clara’s resume might be the most interesting and complicated of all the teams on the bubble. They have good, not great, non-conference wins over Xavier, Minnesota, McNeese and Nevada. They have understandable non-con losses to Saint Louis, New Mexico and Arizona State. And they have an atrocious non-con loss to Loyola-Chicago. They don’t have a WCC loss to anyone other than Gonzaga or Saint Mary’s, and they beat the Gaels at home back in mid-January for their lone Quad-I win of the season.
Both the resume and predictive metrics are solid here, but it feels too easy for the Committee to leave out a team with only one Quad-1 victory and a Quad-4 loss. Winning the WCC Tournament — where the Broncos will start play in the quarterfinals — feels like the only way for Sendek’s team to avoid extreme angst on Selection Sunday.
at LSU (Saturday)
SEC Tournament
Current SB Nation Projection: IN as a 9-seed
I’m with Chris Dobbertean on this. Even though Texas A&M is still widely referred to as a bubble team, I think they’ve done enough to warrant an at-large bid even if they don’t win another game.
First-year head coach Bucky McMillan has taken a team that was picked to finish 13th in the SEC and has them tied for fifth-place in the league heading into the final weekend of the regular season. They may not have any sparkling non-conference wins, but they don’t have any devastating non-con losses that could overshadow what they’ve done in league play either.
The Aggies should be in, but because I don’t have any say in the matter, they should go ahead and beat SEC cellar dweller LSU on Saturday anyway.
at Utah State (Saturday)
Mountain West Tournament
Current SB Nation Projection: First Four OUT
The Lobos laid an egg Wednesday night in an 82-74 home loss to Colorado State where they were beaten pretty thoroughly from start to finish. They can make up for it (and earn a share of the Mountain West’s regular season title) with a road win over Utah State on Saturday. If that doesn’t happen, it feels like anything short of making it to the league tournament title game will leave Eric Olen to mull over what he wants to do with an NIT bid.
at Virginia (Saturday)
ACC Tournament
Current SB Nation Projection: First Team OUT
The Hokies have done just enough all season long to be recognized as a good team, but nothing at any point to make anyone think they have the potential to be a great team. There are no terrible losses on their resume, but a triple overtime home win over arch-rival Virginia on New Year’s Eve is also the only win that catches anyone’s eye.
If Tech can pull off a sweep of Virginia on Saturday, they will greatly bolster their case heading into next week’s ACC Tournament. If they don’t and then fail to make a run in Charlotte on top of that, it’ll be tough to make a case for Mike Young’s team compared to most of the other squads on the bubble they’ll be put side-by-side with.
