In addition to all the other chaos this week, the U.S. is currently on a mission to annex Canada, and Republicans just started a trade war in a clumsy attempt to make that happen. Canadians have not taken kindly to this, with one video going viral Wednesday showing bourbon being removed from the shelves in Canadian liquor stores. That’s bad news for the bourbon industry, which was already in a bad spot before the tariffs, and the fallout will likely cause a ripple of devastation through the state, but believe it or not, Canadians not buying bourbon anymore isn’t Kentucky’s biggest problem right now — it’s automotive exports.
Bourbon can, of course, only be made in Kentucky, which makes it a huge deal for the state. Distilleries are often the largest employer in town, and even if there are other businesses in the area, layoffs at distilleries could do serious damage to the local economy. Plus, even if the now-temporarily paused tariffs do disappear for good, don’t expect Canadians to go back to drinking bourbon anytime soon. And yet, if you look at Kentucky’s top exports to Canada, bourbon doesn’t even make the top five. The top spot, however, belongs to motor vehicles, followed by motor vehicle parts, aerospace products and parts, computer equipment and motor vehicle bodies/trailers. Motor vehicle parts and aerospace products and parts are also Kentucky’s top two exports to Mexico.
Ending the Republican trade war may not be enough
The Department of Commerce document linked above is a few years old, so the 2024 numbers may not be exactly the same, but we’re still talking about several billion dollars in motor vehicle and vehicle part exports that absolutely dwarf what Kentucky used to make selling bourbon in Canada. Ford, General Motors, Lexus and Toyota all have factories in Kentucky, including the Corvette plant, as do suppliers such as Aisin and plenty of others that you’ve likely never heard of before. Losing Canada’s bourbon market certainly won’t be good, but it also pales in comparison to the amount of money the state will lose if Canadians stop buying cars made in Kentucky.
And while the tariffs are certainly part of the problem for Kentucky, Canadians who feel angry and betrayed by a longtime ally violating the free-trade agreement that Trump himself negotiated and signed last time he was president will likely hold this grudge against Republicans and red states for years to come. Automakers and suppliers will probably be able to adapt, but Canada’s growing resistance to buying anything made in the U.S. could take more than $9 billion out of Kentucky’s economy annually. Canada is also Kentucky’s top export market globally, making this Republican trade war even worse for the Bluegrass State. And as Republican politicians continue to push the line that Canada will be forgiven if it agrees to become the 51st state, it’s hard to see Canadian consumers warming up to U.S. products anytime soon. There may be some products they struggle to find an alternative for that are owned and produced in Canada, but cars? They’ll definitely be able to buy other cars, even if they aren’t as awesome as the Corvette. Sorry, Kentucky.
It was never about fentanyl
If you listen to the official Republican line, the trade war started over fentanyl, so all Canada had to do to prevent it was stop sending all that maple-scented fentanyl to the U.S. As the nonpartisan think tank, the Council on Foreign Relations points out, however, not only have fentanyl deaths in the U.S. dropped significantly since their peak, but Canada is “responsible for almost none of the fentanyl that winds up inside U.S. borders.” It may be hard to believe that an authoritarian political party led by a wannabe strongman would lie about something, but there’s also absolutely no evidence that supports the claim that fentanyl made in Canada is pouring into the U.S. like Republicans want you to believe.
In case you had any doubts about the real reason Republicans started this completely unnecessary trade war, current press secretary Karoline Leavitt spelled it out clearly in a recent press conference, telling reporters that Trump “feels strongly that it would be very beneficial for the Canadian people to be the 51st state of the United States” and that “they wouldn’t be paying for these tariffs [and] they’d have much lower taxes if they were part of our great country.” Call it what you want — Lebensraum, Manifest Destiny 2.0, etc. — this is about Republicans wanting to take over another country and raid its natural resources.
Peaceful annexation ain’t happening
Nothing we’ve seen from Canada so far suggests it’s even thinking about possibly considering Trump’s “offer.” Even Canadian conservatives aren’t having it. Do you know how hard you have to work to make Doug Ford look reasonable in comparison? No, the only way Canada becomes part of the U.S. is if Republicans decided to start WWIII, which would absolutely happen if the U.S. invaded Canada. Europe learned its lesson on appeasement 80 years ago, and its citizens are already doing their best to destroy Tesla over Musk’s political interference and ultra-far-right politics. Americans may be protesting at Tesla dealerships, but the French have already progressed to setting Teslas on fire. But hey, we may be mostly isolated from the international community now, but don’t worry, we’re now allies with Russia, so that’ll probably go swimmingly for everyone involved.
It’s also worth noting that despite pausing the tariffs on both Canada and Mexico for now, the administration doesn’t appear to have actually gotten anything in return that can even be used as a symbolic victory for Republicans, and again, if this completely unnecessary Republican trade war actually had anything to do with fentanyl, you’d think Trump would have refused to drop the tariffs until Mexico could show it had actually done something to interrupt cartel production, and Canada sternly lectured the beavers about keeping their fentanyl to themselves. Instead, Republicans got nothing, the people in states like Kentucky will suffer, inflation will only get worse, and we’re now the pariahs of the developed world. Wonderful.
