Back in October, I had a six-week check in with the rookie QBs that played at the time. Among the QBs who qualified for a grade, Nix had the worst one of the bunch. Coming in at a D+, there were many concerns I had about his early play, some of which are outlined here:
It’s easy to say the game has to be slowed down for Nix, but it really does. He’s playing way too sped up and sacrificing his footwork, throwing off his mechanics. This was a problem for him in college and the problem has come with him to Denver. When he gets his cleats in the ground and is throwing quick game he can operate, but that’s not what you ask a first-round pick at QB to do. I’m concerned for Nix and the Broncos, because it’s not looking good right now.
Well, it’s a good thing we play 17 games, because since then Nix has played really well. The development track for young signal callers is never linear, and Nix’s growth has been cool to see with an offense that is finding their answers quickly.
The Broncos had every golf club in the bag working on Sunday in their 38-6 demolition of the Atlanta Falcons, and Nix was also playing well. Nix went 28-for-33 for 307 yards and four touchdowns in the win, but it was the mind-meld with head coach Sean Payton that caught my eye. Payton was cooking on Sunday, giving Nix some well designed concepts to beat the Falcons at every step, but also asking Nix to hit a few big boy throws.
Something that stood out to me off the jump was how the Broncos used motion and formations to stress the Falcons’ second level. This is a simple backside slant to Devaughn Vele out of shotgun, but the way they get to it is what’s really exciting to me. Denver lines up WR Marvin Mims in the backfield (we’ll get to that later). The Broncos send Mims out quickly into the flat to Nix’s right, which forces the issue against the Falcons because there are already three receivers out there. Now, the linebacker has to open up to his left because of the sheer numbers over there. What Nix does when the ball is snapped is nice and tidy as well. He influences the LB with his eyes, flips back over and throws it to Vele for 14 yards on 2nd and 15. Just neat, efficient QB play married with a concept to make things easy.
Mims was in the backfield again on another big play, a 37-yard rail route that caught the Falcons off guard. Atlanta sends a simulated pressure, bringing a nickel from the edge while dropping a defensive lineman. However, Denver is ready for it. With two receivers to Nix’s left and Mims to the left side in the backfield, the Broncos can attack that dropping lineman. The two receivers clear out the coverage to the left side, and Nix wastes no time on this rail route, dropping it over the outstretched arms of this EDGE player who has no idea what he’s doing out there.
Nix’s first passing touchdown was especially diabolical by Payton, using the Mims eye candy to attract the attention of the Falcons’ second level before leaking out the tight end. So let’s break it down. Denver is in 11 personnel (one tight end, one running back), and before the snap, they send Mims into this return orbit motion, where he breaks across the formation, then runs behind the QB back the same way he started. This is largely just for window dressing, to pull the eyes of the second level. Not only do they do that, but the center pulls, also influencing that backside LB. Out in the passing concept, you get WR Courtland Sutton clearing out the corner, but what really makes this thing go is RB Javonte Williams going fast out the backfield. This sends the panic alarm off to the playside LB, who runs with Williams out the backfield.
Over to the backside, remember that window dressing I talked about with Mims? Well, the backside LB and nickel both fell for it and ended up hitting a wall like Wil. E. Coyote. The tight end leaks out the formation and basically walks into the end zone.
Even without some of the fancy dressing, Nix had some plays where he displayed the growth that has come with being an NFL QB, namely in his footwork. If you remember from the 6-week check in, his footwork was what frustrated me the most, being too jumpy and throwing himself off and out of whack. Perhaps the biggest indicator of his growth was this explosive downfield to Vele. Just watch the footwork on this dig route, especially from the end zone. Look at how much calmer he is in the pocket, and the confidence to fire this bad boy in a cloudy look.
This is big boy QB stuff, and Nix was displaying it on Sunday.
I’m sure many will ask what’s led to this uptick in play, but I think there are two major factors: the first one is the quality offensive line play in pass protection. Through the first six weeks of the season the Broncos allowed a 33.8% pressure rate, but since week seven that number has dropped to 28.7%. They’ve kept Nix clean, and while yes the caveat of playing the worst pass rush in the NFL has to come in play, you can only beat the team that lines up in front of you. On top of that, I just think Nix and Payton have gotten more comfortable as the season has gone on. At first, it seemed like they were trying to figure out the best mix of each others’ talents, but I think they’ve really started to hit their stride at the right time.
With Denver in the thick of the AFC playoff race, keeping Nix playing at a high level will help in their short and long term goals.
