BMW Championship odds, betting preview: Xander Schauffele to win

The BMW Championship returns to the Rocky Mountains for the first time since 2014, when Billy Horschel fended off Bubba Watson at Cherry Hills.

But this year, the PGA Tour will head 30 minutes south from Cherry Hills to Castle Pines Golf Club, the course that used to host The International from 1986 through 2006. No player in this year’s field has competed at Castle Pines professionally, although Denver-native Wyndham Clark has fond memories of attending The International as a kid.

Yet, the course has changed since then, with Jack Nicklaus beefing things up by adding 600 yards off the tee. This week’s total yardage will read 8,130 yards, a gaudy figure that will make a golf purist’s jaw drop. But this course sits 6,500 feet above sea level, meaning the golf ball will travel a greater distance, similar to how field goals go the furthest at Denver Broncos games and how Coors Field—home of the Rockies—is not too kind to pitchers. The course will not play that long, even though the par-5 1st—with the mountains in the backdrop—looks like it goes on forever.

Nicklaus also redesigned 10 holes, renovated 77 bunkers, and reconstructed 10 water features over the past decade, per The Denver Post. The ‘Golden Bear’ laid out the original design in 1981, with the consultation of Colorado billionaire Jack Vickers.

The course, which prides itself on being “The Best Day of Golf in America,” used to produce plenty of drama at The International annually. Phil Mickelson, Greg Norman, and Retief Goosen all won here, but so did Vijay Singh, Ernie Els, and David Toms—a who’s who of major champions.

Now, all these years later, Castle Pines will host a FedEx Cup Playoff event, which will surely entertain and test the best players in the world.

BMW Championship Odds:

Here are the latest odds for players to win the BMW Championship, courtesy of DraftKings:

Scottie Scheffler +330

Xander Schauffele +550

Rory McIlroy +1200

Collin Morikawa +1400

Viktor Hovland +1800

Hideki Matsuyama +1800

Patrick Cantlay +2000

Ludvig Åberg +2000

Tommy Fleetwood +2000

Wyndham Clark +3000

Tony Finau +3000

Sam Burns +3000

Russell Henley +3000

Corey Conners +3500

Billy Horschel +3500

Aaron Rai +4000

Justin Thomas +4000

Cameron Young +4500

Adam Scott +4500

Sungjae Im +4500

Sahith Theegala +4500

Akshay Bhatia +5000

Robert MacIntyre +5000

Jason Day +5000

Shane Lowry +5500

Davis Thompson +5500

Christiaan Bezuidenhout +6000

Matt Fitzpatrick +6000

Byeong Hun An +6500

Brian Harman +6500

Will Zalatoris +6500

Nick Dunlap +6500

Taylor Pendrith +7000

Alex Noren +7500

Denny McCarthy +7500

Photo by Mike Mulholland/Getty Images

Top 10 picks include hometown hero:

Wyndham Clark — Top 10 +200

Wyndham Clark has some additional pressure on him this week, considering he has never played professionally in his home state of Colorado. But the Denver native will overpower that emotion and post another solid finish at Castle Pines. Clark has finished among the top 14 in four of his last five starts, with the outlier being his missed cut at Royal Troon. He said that course did not fit his eye, nor did he play well at this year’s Open. But he bounced back after a brutal opening round in Paris, tying Scottie Scheffler for having the best score over the final 54 holes at the Olympics. Clark most recently tied for seventh in Memphis and is one of the longer hitters on tour, a necessity on this 8,130-yard behemoth that sits more than 6,000 feet above sea level. He will be a part of the story of this week.

Byeong Hun An — Top 10 +360

The Seoul, South Korea native will post his sixth top-10 finish of the season at Castle Pines, a course that requires both length and accuracy with the driver. An can hit the ball a country mile, ranking 4th on tour in overall driving distance, but he tends to get a little wayward off the tee. Last week in Memphis, he found the fairway only 41% of the time but did not post an over-par score at the FedEx St. Jude. He did tie for 33rd, but we like him to straighten things out this week and vie for a top-10 finish.

Tony Finau — Top 10 +200

Since the PGA Championship, Tony Finau has only missed one cut, which came at Royal Troon. He also has seven top-20 finishes in that span, including a T-3 at the U.S. Open and a top-five finish at the Travelers Championship in Connecticut. A poor week off the tee kept him at bay last week in Memphis, where he found only 25-of-56 (44.6%) fairways, but Finau still posted four sub-70 rounds to tie for 16th. Castle Pines has more generous fairways than the ones at TPC Southwind, where trouble lurks around every corner. So Finau should, in theory, have a stronger week in Colorado. He also ranks second to Scottie Scheffler in strokes gained approaching the green and seventh in overall strokes gained. When he puts himself in position, he takes advantage, and we envision that happening this week.

Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images

Two top 5 finishers:

Hideki Matsuyama — Top 5 at +280

Hideki Matsuyama had an absolute whirlwind of a week. It included a robbery, a new caddie, a mid-round conversation with a PGA Tour rules official, and, ultimately, an exhilarating victory. The 2021 Masters Champion held the largest 54-hole lead of the season in Memphis but then saw it evaporate on the back nine. He then finished birdie-birdie to win by two, further proof that Matsuyama is one of the best champions of this generation. But Matsuyama won last week because of his putter, a part of his game he has historically struggled with. He ranks 106th on the PGA Tour this season in strokes gained putting. Yet, last week, he gained more than eight strokes on the green, sitting atop the field in that category. He recently made a putting switch, and that decision clearly paid off. We believe that swap will continue to pay dividends this week in Colorado, where Matsuyama will threaten the winner’s circle again.

Adam Scott: Top 5 at +650

He may have just turned 44, but Adam Scott can still hit the ball a long way. Scott ranks 32nd on the PGA Tour in driving distance and 32nd in strokes gained off the tee. With that said, the Aussie has struggled with accuracy at times this year. However, last week at TPC Southwind—a course where finding fairways is challenging—he found the short grass 53.4% of the time, which ranked above average among the 70-player field. He wound up tying for 18th, his third straight top-20 finish. He finished runner-up to Robert MacIntyre at the Scottish Open and then tied for 10th at Royal Troon. Scott has also not missed the cut since the PGA Championship. The 2013 Masters Champion is playing well, but he has not played well enough throughout this entire season to guarantee a spot in Atlanta. Currently ranked 41st in the FedEx Cup standings, Scott will feel motivated to post a top-five finish in Colorado to book a ticket to East Lake. We believe he does just that, finishing among the top five for the second time in his last four starts.

Photo by Michael Wade/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Winners:

Xander Schauffele — Win at +550

Scahuffele came close to stealing the FedEx St. Jude Championship away from Matsuyama, firing a closing 7-under 63 on Sunday to finish in a tie for second with Viktor Hovland. But this week, Schauffele will grab his third win of the season in the altitude. He has no flaws in his game and hits the ball as straight as an arrow. He’s also among the best putters on the PGA Tour, which always helps. On top of that, Schauffele ranks first on the PGA Tour in scrambling percentage and first on tour in three-putt avoidance. He rarely makes a mistake around the green, saving him plenty of shots and keeping him in contention. So not only will his improved distance gains help off the tee this week, but his short game will come in yet handy again.

Scottie Scheffler — Win at +330

Now that the fields are dwindling in size, Scheffler’s odds of winning have diminished as well. You get zero return on picking the World No. 1 to finish among the top five, let alone the top 10, so you may as well pick him to win at +330. After all, Scheffler has won seven times over the past six months, including an Olympic gold medal. Plus, he has finished outside of the top 10 only once during that span: a T-41 at the U.S. Open. You can argue for Scheffler seemingly every week, as nobody hits the ball better from tee to green. But it all comes down to whether or not he can make some putts and take advantage of the numerous birdie opportunities he presents himself. If he can, Scheffler will win with ease.

Tommy Fleetwood — Win at +2200

Fleetwood arrives in Colorado as much more of a longshot than the other two players listed above. But he no doubt has the talent to earn his first career PGA Tour title this week at Castle Pines. The Englishman ranks ninth on the PGA Tour in total driving, which combines length and accuracy, and is 11th in bogey avoidance, proving that he finds plenty of fairways and does not make many mistakes. Yet, last week in Memphis, Fleetwood ranked dead last in the field on the greens, losing nearly eight strokes with his putter. He still managed to tie for 22nd and did not post an over-par score at TPC Southwind. But we think his putting improves at Castle Pines, translating into a strong finish. Perhaps most importantly, Fleetwood is ranked 31st in the FedEx Cup standings. He must play well to earn a spot in the Tour Championship in Atlanta, and that should motivate him to post a strong result. That alone gives us reason to take a flier on Fleetwood to win.

Jack Milko is a golf staff writer for SB Nation’s Playing Through. Be sure to check out @_PlayingThrough for more golf coverage. You can follow him on Twitter @jack_milko as well.