Back-to-school shopping is quickly heating up as retailers offer up better discounts and consumers fret over rising prices and potential stockouts.
Though still early in the season, Americans are buying up more school supplies and seasonal apparel this month compared with a year ago. They are also stocking up ahead of anticipated tariff-related price hikes later this year. The increased spending will sap business out of August at stores and online, though typically, bts shopping peaks in August into early September.
Despite their mounting financial concerns, consumers are expected to ultimately spend pretty much the same on bts supplies and apparel as they did in 2024.
On Wednesday, the National Retail Federation reported that U.S. bts spending this year will be slightly above last year, at $128.2 billion versus $127.4 billion. Families with college kids will spend $88.8 billion on bts this year versus $86.6 billion last year. Families with kids in grades kindergarten to 12 will spend $39.4 billion this season versus $38.8 billion last year.
K-12 shoppers are budgeting $295.81 on average for electronics ($13.6 billion total), $249.36 for apparel and accessories ($11.4 billion total), $169.13 for shoes ($7.8 billion total) and $143.77 for school supplies ($6.6 billion total).
As with recent years, the internet is the most popular destination for bts, followed by department stores, discount stores and then apparel stores.
College students and their families are planning to spend an average of $1,325.85, down from $1,364.75 in 2024. Although per person spending has decreased, on average, more consumers are shopping across almost every category, bringing back-to-college spending up year-over-year.
NRF‘s survey, conducted with Prosper Insights, included 7,581 consumers and was fielded July 1 to 7 with a margin of error of plus or minus 1.1 percentage points.
“In June, we saw a bit of a tick up for those who were shopping early, about a quarter of back-to-school shoppers had started by that point, up from 22 percent in 2024 but the big change came in July, when 67 percent of back-to-school families started shopping, which is up from 55 percent last year,” Katherine Cullen, the NRF’s vice president of industry and consumer insights, said during a media briefing Wednesday. “A lot of that we believe was tied to concerns around announcements with the tariffs. We may not have really seen the full effect of tariffs, but it’s on consumers’ minds.”
Between that and some higher prices due to inflation that has already hit consumers, “It’s shifting their behavior,” Cullen said. The Labor Department reported that inflation picked up 2.7 percent in June.
Tom McGee, president and chief executive officer of the International Council of Shopping Centers, a separate trade group, said in a statement: “Our 2025 back-to-school consumer survey shows a clear trend — consumers are prioritizing value and seeking early deals this back-to-school season. Retailer-driven promotional events have become a vital part of the back-to-school season and have reshaped when and how consumers shop to take advantage of the best sales. American families continue to spend even as they face an uncertain economic outlook, and successful retailers will continue using creative deals and promotions to entice them to spend throughout the year.”
On Tuesday, the ICSC released results from its annual back-to-school consumer survey, conducted online July 7 to 9, with a demographically representative U.S. sample of 1,009 respondents. Among the key findings:
- Fifty-six percent of consumers are worried about affording their school supplies due to price hikes from tariffs.
- Most consumers are shopping early, with 55 percent of those surveyed having already started or completed their back-to-school shopping, a 7 percent increase from 2024.
- Seventy-nine percent of consumers expect to increase spending compared with 2024, with 37 percent attributing the increase to higher prices and 34 percent stocking up on supplies for later in the year.
- Ninety-one percent of bts shoppers said higher prices will impact their purchasing behaviors this season, driving them to buy items on sale (38 percent), from cheaper brands (29 percent), comparison shop (29 percent) and reuse supplies (28 percent).
- Discount stores remain the most popular type of retailer for 62 percent of back-to-school shoppers, followed by Amazon, 56 percent, and dollar and variety stores, 42 percent.
“Families are spreading out purchases to manage rising costs, capture better deals and reduce pressure on monthly budgets,” said Duleep Rodrigo, KPMG U.S. consumer and retail leader. “It’s a deliberate, strategic shift in how they shop and when. While an elongated back-to-school season gives retailers more opportunities to engage shoppers, it also heightens pressure to plan earlier, spend more on sustained engagement, and tailor promotions with greater precision across a longer timeline.”
This week Target announced its bts saving event running July 27 to Aug. 2, with discounts of up to 30 percent on key items like select backpacks and kids’ apparel. Target is also staging in-store experiences and giveaways. Rick Gomez, Target’s executive vice president and chief commercial officer, cited “great deals on essentials, fun personalization events in hundreds of stores and even more savings for Target Circle members.”
Macy’s said it was running Black Friday-type deals Wednesday through Sunday across all categories. Jen Brown, Macy’s vice president of content and marketing strategy, said, “Black Friday in July features incredible deals from apparel to home essentials and back-to-school must haves, offering a great assortment of brands and value.”
Macy’s is also staging a “Christmas in July” promotion starting Friday that gives customers a serious head start on holiday shopping. Deals include $14.99 beach towels; 55 to 65 percent off select luggage from Samsonite, Delsey, Travelpro; 12-piece dinnerware sets starting at $26.99; 65 percent off the Charter Club and Hotel Collection private brands bedding and bath collections, and some summer dresses at 50 percent off.
Academy Sports + Outdoors is holding prices on youth apparel and footwear products from last year to help families “make the most of their budget this back-to-school season,” according Steve Lawrence, Academy’s CEO.
“They shouldn’t have to choose between function or fashion; they should be able to shop a wide range of great brands and products at unbeatable prices,” Lawrence said. “That’s why we’re leaning into value and offering promotions on all the must-have brands and items that kids will need in the classroom or on the field.”
Academy said it was offering everyday value pricing on essentials from brands such as Nike, Adidas and Under Armour as well as private brands BCG, Freely, R.O.W. and Magellan Outdoors. Academy also said it has “hot deals” on new arrivals.
“I like to think of the consumer as sentimentally weak but fundamentally sound,” said Mark Mathews, NRF’s chief economist and executive director over research during Wednesday’s bts media briefing.
Recent consumer sentiment data indicates a bit of a bounce, though in historical terms, consumer sentiment remains very low, he said. “However, when you look at the consumers finances, household net worth remains near record highs. We have discretionary income growth. Wages continue to outpace inflation, and that’s super important. Unemployment remains historically low.”
Job creation, he added, has been steady, but “muted” in the last couple of months. “That’s giving me a bit of cause for concern about where those numbers might be headed, but it remains steady and in positive areas.”
Mathews also said there have been price increases in the number of categories, but they’re not really impacting the top line numbers yet. “Retailers are trying their darndest to keep those back-to-school items in particular as low as possible,” he said. “It’s also important to recognize that tariff price hikes take a long time to work their way to the consumer, and one reason is a lot of retailers shelves remain stocked with pre-tariff imports. We know retailers increased imports dramatically at the start of the year, so lots of those goods remain on shelves. The full effect of tariffs have yet to hit.
“Businesses may be eating more of those tariffs than expected,” Mathews added, which troubles him. “The outcomes for the economy are significantly worse the more businesses eat tariffs rather than passing them on to consumers,” he said, explaining that would lead to employment and wage cuts. “That sounds a bit less than than ideal if you’re a consumer, but that’s the reality from an economic standpoint.”
