Myanmar’s military government set the election date for Dec. 28 on Monday, two weeks after lifting the state of emergency, setting off a spate of questions from the business community.
In the run-up to the talk of elections, the global business community has begun taking another hard look at whether the elections could trigger pivotal change. For international brands, the drive to address sourcing risks through diversification is being fueled by regional geopolitical turbulence, including instability in Bangladesh ahead of its April 2026 elections; skirmishes between Thailand and Cambodia; ongoing factory closures in Indonesia caused by a flood of Chinese imports, and fresh U.S. tariffs. Against this backdrop, Myanmar’s low labor costs — about $95 a month — remain a tempting factor for brands looking for sourcing partners.
“Even though there are some international sanctions, it’s been possible to work with the regime through the back door,” Mon Mon Myat of the Department of Peace Studies at Payap University told WWD’s sister publication Sourcing Journal, noting that some business has continued despite the coup, and that the junta is now seeking greater acceptance from the global community. She pointed to a major shift with the coming election, which is being pushed ahead under Beijing’s supervision. “What we can expect from this election is authoritarianism,” she claimed.
Expectations for the year have also been tempered by the imposition of some of the highest tariffs in the region by President Trump — 40 percent for Myanmar, compared with around 20 percent for much of Southeast Asia. The country is also struggling to recover from a devastating earthquake last March that caused damages of more than $11 billion, equivalent to 14 percent of its GDP, according to the World Bank.
Facing ethical dilemmas, an inability to monitor labor conditions, and mounting sustainability concerns, many brands and retailers have withdrawn from Myanmar since the coup, including H&M, Primark, Inditex, Fast Retailing, Tchibo and Marks & Spencer. Despite the exodus, the Myanmar Garment Manufacturers Association (MGMA) has laid out an ambitious plan to more than triple industry value to $15 billion by 2034, while increasing employment from 500,000 to 1.2 million.
The association’s optimism draws on a history of rapid growth. In 2010, Myanmar’s garment exports totaled $337 million, with huge growth momentum under the MGMA’s previous 2014–2024 plan. Despite the 2021 coup and pandemic disruptions, apparel exports jumped 51.6 percent year-on-year to $6.49 billion in 2022.
Industry leaders believe that if political conditions stabilize, these markets could be leveraged to drive sustained double-digit growth over the next decade.
The elections, for all their controversy, are being watched closely by industry stakeholders, who see in them either a rare opening for re-engagement or confirmation that Myanmar’s garment future will remain hostage to its politics.
However, many observers believe change will fall far short of being transformative.
“Recent developments such as election preparations, the military’s new government formation, the suspension of Sections 5, 7, and 8 of the Law on the Protection of Personal Privacy and Personal Security of Citizens, and the Cybersecurity Law are impacting the garment industry and workers—already among the most vulnerable,” said a social compliance expert and trade union leader, speaking on condition of anonymity. “Rights groups and NGOs see the election as neither free nor fair, and warn of deepening violence, authoritarian entrenchment, and further international isolation.”
The same source noted that global fashion brands operating in Myanmar “will continue to face a profound ethical and operational dilemma as the military ramps up its election preparations, enforces a draconian cybersecurity law, and suspends protections for personal freedom.” He urged brands to avoid sourcing from suppliers linked to the junta and to “publicly condemn authoritarian practices in which they cannot guarantee worker safety or conduct due diligence in line with international standards.”
Richard Horsey, senior adviser on Myanmar at the International Crisis Group, stressed that expectations should be tempered by the pace of change.
“Over the last year there have been big shifts. China got off the fence and backed the regime — not just in diplomatic terms, but with weapons and technology. There has been a lot of diplomatic exchange in the context of the earthquake as well,” he said.
“I’m not going to sugarcoat this — there’s no silver bullet. [The years] 2010 and 2025 are very different scenarios. We’re in a much more transactional world. Diplomacy can’t do much to move the needle; there is also diplomatic fatigue. Even in the last five years, the military itself has changed — they have come out as different people than they were.”
Other critics, including several trade union leaders, argue that no real change can be expected after the elections. The International Trade Union Confederation (ITUC) has called for a rejection of the process, labeling it a “strategic fraud” designed to grant greater legitimacy to and international acceptance of military rule. “Any electoral process must be inclusive, transparent, and free from intimidation,” said Luc Triangle, ITUC’s general secretary.
Although coup leader Min Aung Hlaing has changed his title to acting president and installed his adviser, General Nyo Saw, as prime minister, analysts note that his powers have only increased. With civil war still raging, more than half the country remains inaccessible for voting.
Yet despite sanctions and setbacks, Myanmar continues to benefit from duty-free access to the European Union under the Everything-but-Arms (EBA) program, and similar arrangements with Japan and South Korea. According to MGMA officials, diversification is key to future growth. In 2024, out of total apparel exports of $4.46 billion, the EU was Myanmar’s largest market, accounting for 53 percent of shipments, followed by Japan at 25 percent, Korea 10 percent, the U.S. 5 percent, the U.K. 4 percent, and other markets 3 percent.
“Everyone is tired of the fighting. It’s well time to think of rebuilding and finding a way ahead,” a manufacturer said, speaking on condition of anonymity, expressing industry hopes that the elections might mark a turning point. “We can’t wait and watch for much longer.”
