We are down to four teams, three games, two rounds and one champion in the NFL playoffs this year. The Kansas City Chiefs, Buffalo Bills, Philadelphia Eagles and Washington Commanders have made it to the Conference Championship round with a chance to go to the Super Bowl. Before the season, the Chiefs, Bills and Eagles would not have been surprises to make it this far but the Commanders have come out of nowhere.
With the College Football Playoffs over and The Ohio State Buckeyes taking home the trophy after an impressive four-game run, the NFL playoffs now get the stage to themselves. Which teams will continue their playoff runs with a chance to hoist the Lombardi Trophy at the end of the season?
The AFC Championship game could see Kansas City punching their ticket on the way to a three-peat but Josh Allen is positioned to get the Patrick Mahomes legend off his back. While Washington has been a surprise, they have reasons to be encouraged heading into the NFC Championship game while Philadelphia has the experience to head back to the Super Bowl.
So far in the playoffs, FTN’s DVOA has only batted .500 in predicting the results of each playoff round. For the divisional round, we noted that analytics cannot take into account injuries that have decimated the Detroit Lions on the defensive side of the ball. While that wasn’t the only reason the top seed in the NFC lost, it played a huge factor and cannot be accounted for in the data.
DVOA is a metric that breaks down the quality of play compared to the league average while adjusting for the strength of the opponents being played. DVOA is one of a couple of catch-all analytics measures that help us understand the beautiful game of football better.
Attempting to predict the results of these games, when the best are playing the best, is difficult. Bettors on FanDuel, and FanDuel themselves, are looking for every morsel of information to help make their predictions.
Interestingly, the two teams that earned the top seeds and bye in their conference were not the top overall DVOA team during the regular season. Neither of the top teams in DVOA made the conference championship games. For the second year in a row, the Baltimore Ravens held the top spot with a 41.4% Total DVOA, down from 45.5% last year. The Detroit Lions were second overall at 34.8% while the Kansas City Chiefs are all the way down at eight at 14.7%
To be clear, FTN’s DVOA isn’t perfect nor would it claim to predict the winners of certain games. Too many variables that cannot be codified, like weather, injuries, officiating and more, can play a role in a one-game sample.
While DVOA has only batted .500 so far in this year’s NFL playoffs, let’s take a look at what it says for the Conference Championship round.
Kansas City Chiefs vs Buffalo Bills
- Overall DVOA: Kansas City 8th vs Buffalo 4th
- Offensive DVOA: Kansas City 8th vs Buffalo 2nd
- Defensive DVOA: Kansas City 12th vs Buffalo 11th
Edge: Bills – Much like analytics can’t factor in injuries, it also can’t factor in the Andy Reid, Travis Kelce and Mahomes factor. Did the Chiefs take it easy during the regular season (despite their gaudy record) or are the Bills that much better than them? Hard to bet against the two-time defending champions despite what the data says.
Philadelphia Eagles vs Washington Commanders
- Overall DVOA: Philadelphia 5th vs Washington 10th
- Offensive DVOA: Philadelphia 13th vs Washington 6th
- Defensive DVOA: Philadelphia 1st vs Washington 23rd
Edge: Eagles – Unlike the AFC, the NFC has the team with more experience also ranked higher in the data. Philadelphia has not been a well-oiled machine this year but has still played well, especially on defense. At some point, Jayden Daniels’ lack of experience could become a problem but it hasn’t so far. In what feels like a mismatch, Washington has another chance to prove their doubters (and the analytics) wrong.
FTN’s DVOA was far from perfect to start the NFL playoffs but the data provides another piece of information as you make betting decisions, discuss the playoffs with your coworkers or make daily fantasy decisions. This weekend, the data suggests the Bills will face the Eagles in Super Bowl LIX.
We are excited to see the games played on the field and see whether or not DVOA is able to do a better job this week than it did last week in predicting the games.
