Steve Madden’s Trend-Right Product Mix Has Wall Street Optimistic

The men’s and women’s product lines across Steve Madden‘s brands are resonating with consumers, and Wall Street likes what it sees.

Williams Trading analyst Sam Poser has a “buy” rating on shares of the company’s stock. He said the Steve Madden brand, Madden Girl, Dolce Vita and Kurt Geiger are making headway and that the firm’s large retail partners — the wholesale accounts — are stepping up with their fill-in and new orders.

“Also, [the company’s] private label business, primarily done in the mass channel, is set to improve by early to mid 2027,” Poser said. “It appears that some of the product that the mass retailers developed directly with factories, rather than using Steve Madden’s expertise, have underperformed at retail.”

The shoe firm’s chairman and chief executive officer Edward Rosenfeld said in May when the firm posted first-quarter earnings that the private label business had been pressured due to tariffs in a distribution channel where price sensitivity is the highest. At the time, he was targeting 2027 as the time period for a recovery. And Rosenfeld last November when the firm posted third quarter earnings results was noting strong performance in dress shoes across various heel heights and in casuals that include loafers and Mary-Janes.

The Williams Trading analyst also highlighted Steve Madden Men’s shoes, which represents about 15 percent of total revenue, excluding the Kurt Geiger business. “The new Steve Madden’s Men’s dress and dress casual product have been elevated to a $150 price point, and highlight understandable interpretations of key designer styles as well as updates to classic men’s footwear styles,” Poser said, adding that the new product has led to sales to better department stores, both online and in-store.

And Poser said direct-to-consumer (DTC) strength continues to be led “full price stores, stevemadden.com, and TikTok Shop and Snapchat.” The two social media platforms represent a small part of the business, but are increasing in importance.

In the latest U.S. TikTok data from Charm Io on the fastest growing shoe shops based on year-over-year revenue change from July 2025 to June 2026, Steve Madden placed fourth. The firm saw U.S. TikTok sales up 697.4 percent to $4.5 million from $559,508.

“Broadly, we believe underlying trends remain strong, driven by a rotation into fashion styles from athletic, and supported by strong product and marketing execution,” BTIG’s Janine Stichter said.

She sees the potential for the company to raise guidance when it posts second quarter results on Thursday. Stichter is expecting second quarter earnings per share at 35 cents versus 20 cents a year ago, which is also ahead of consensus estimates of 32 cents. The company did not formally provide second quarter guidance.

“We continue to see strong full-price demand for the trending Calico — Tabi-style — shoes, as well as jelly shoes and flip-flops,” the BTIG analyst said, adding that the brand also has been surrounded by celebrity buzz from actress Lexi Minetree, Megan Thee Stallion and SZA.

Telsey Advisory Group’s (TAG) chief investment officer Dana Telsey is expecting second quarter revenue growth of 13.9 percent year-over-year to $637 million, in line with the consensus estimate of $635 million.

Telsey said the Steve Madden brand’s U.S. DTC comps rose 17 percent, as it benefited from strength in full-price channels. “Strength in the DTC channel should continue and return the company back to earnings growth in the second quarter,” she said.

The TAG analyst said a product showroom tour last month showed that the firm continues to bring trend-right products to market quickly, she concluded. She pointed out that the firm is “well positioned to benefit from the current fashion driven footwear cycle, in our view, and has built in additional flexibility into its supply chain to remain close to consumer demand than competitors.” She also noted that while the private label business remains a headwind, it is starting to look as if it “may begin moving in the right direction” next year. Telsey has an “Outperform” rating on the company’s shares.