Friday, March 27, 2026
No menu items!
HomeNatureQuantifying climate loss and damage consistent with a social cost of carbon

Quantifying climate loss and damage consistent with a social cost of carbon

  • Pörtner, H. O. et al. Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability (IPCC, 2022).

  • Hsiang, S. et al. Fifth National Climate Assessment Ch. 19 (US Global Change Research Program, 2023).

  • Mechler, R. & Schinko, T. Identifying the policy space for climate loss and damage. Science 354, 290–292 (2016).

    Article 
    ADS 
    CAS 
    PubMed 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Roy, J. et al. in Global Warming of 1.5 °C: An IPCC Special Report (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2018).

  • Boyd, E., James, R. A., Jones, R. G., Young, H. R. & Otto, F. E. A typology of loss and damage perspectives. Nat. Clim. Change 7, 723–729 (2017).

    Article 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Calliari, E. et al. in Paris Agreement: A Commentary (Edward Elgar, 2020).

  • National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. Valuing Climate Damages: Updating Estimation of the Social Cost of Carbon Dioxide (National Academies Press, 2017).

  • IPCC. Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis (eds Masson-Delmotte, V. & Zhai, P.) Ch. 2 (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2021).

  • UNFCCC. Current Knowledge on Relevant Methodologies and Data Requirements as well as Lessons Learned and Gaps Identified at Different Levels, in Assessing the Risk of Loss and Damage Associated with the Adverse Effects of Climate Change (2012).

  • McNamara, K. E. & Jackson, G. Loss and damage: a review of the literature and directions for future research. WIREs Clim. Change 10, e564 (2019).

    Article 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Mechler, R., Bouwer, L. M., Schinko, T., Surminski, S. & Linnerooth-Bayer, J. Loss and Damage from Climate Change: Concepts, Methods and Policy Options (Springer Nature, 2019).

  • Stuart-Smith, R. F. et al. Filling the evidentiary gap in climate litigation. Nat. Clim. Change 11, 651–655 (2021).

    Article 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Callahan, C. W. & Mankin, J. S. Carbon majors and the scientific case for climate liability. Nature 640, 893–901 (2025).

    Article 
    ADS 
    CAS 
    PubMed 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Otto, F. E., Skeie, R. B., Fuglestvedt, J. S., Berntsen, T. & Allen, M. R. Assigning historic responsibility for extreme weather events. Nat. Clim. Change 7, 757–759 (2017).

    Article 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar
     

  • James, R. A. et al. in Loss and Damage from Climate Change: Concepts, Methods and Policy Options 113–154 (Springer Nature, 2019).

  • Quilcaille, Y. et al. Systematic attribution of heatwaves to the emissions of carbon majors. Nature 645, 392–398 (2025).

    Article 
    ADS 
    CAS 
    PubMed 
    PubMed Central 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Callahan, C. & Mankin, J. National attribution of historical climate damages. Clim. Change 172 (2022).

  • UNFCCC. Decision 2/cp. 19. Warsaw International Mechanism for Loss and Damage Associated with Climate Change Impacts (2013).

  • US Environmental Protection Agency. EPA Draft Report on the Social Cost of Greenhouse Gases: Estimates Incorporating Recent Scientific Advances Technical Report (2022).

  • Interagency Working Group on Social Cost of Greenhouse Gases. Technical Support Document: Social Cost of Carbon, Methane, and Nitrous Oxide Interim Estimates Under Executive Order 13990 (US Government, 2021).

  • Eyring, V. et al. Overview of the coupled model intercomparison project phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization. Geosci. Model Dev. 9, 1937–1958 (2016).

    Article 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Burke, M., Hsiang, S. M. & Miguel, E. Global non-linear effect of temperature on economic production. Nature 527, 235–239 (2015).

    Article 
    ADS 
    CAS 
    PubMed 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Dell, M., Jones, B. F. & Olken, B. A. Temperature shocks and economic growth: evidence from the last half century. Am. Econ. J. 4, 66–95 (2012).


    Google Scholar
     

  • Nath, I. B., Ramey, V. A. & Klenow, P. J. How Much will Global Warming Cool Global Growth? NBER Working Paper 32761, https://doi.org/10.3386/w32761 (2024).

  • Bilal, A. & Känzig, D. R. The Macroeconomic Impact of Climate Change: Global vs Local Temperature NBER Working Paper 32450, https://doi.org/10.3386/w32450 (2024).

  • Gollier, C. & Hammitt, J. K. The long-run discount rate controversy. Annu. Rev. Resour. Econ. 6, 273–295 (2014).

    Article 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Diffenbaugh, N. S. & Burke, M. Global warming has increased global economic inequality. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 116, 9808–9813 (2019).

    Article 
    ADS 
    CAS 
    PubMed 
    PubMed Central 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Ricke, K., Drouet, L., Caldeira, K. & Tavoni, M. Country-level social cost of carbon. Nat. Clim. Change 8, 895–900 (2018).

    Article 
    ADS 
    CAS 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Burke, M. et al. Are we Adapting to Climate Change? NBER Working Paper 32985, https://doi.org/10.3386/w32985 (2024).

  • Kim, B. F. et al. Country-specific dietary shifts to mitigate climate and water crises. Glob. Environ. Change 62, 101926 (2020).

    Article 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Ivanova, D. et al. Quantifying the potential for climate change mitigation of consumption options. Environ. Res. Lett. 15, 093001 (2020).

    Article 
    ADS 
    CAS 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Griffin, P. & Heede, C. CDP Carbon Majors Report 2017 (CDN, 2017).

  • Field, C. B. & Mach, K. J. Rightsizing carbon dioxide removal. Science 356, 706–707 (2017).

    Article 
    ADS 
    CAS 
    PubMed 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Lloyd, E. A., Oreskes, N., Seneviratne, S. I. & Larson, E. J. Climate scientists set the bar of proof too high. Clim. Change 165, 1–10 (2021).

    Article 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Fenton, A., Wright, H., Afionis, S., Paavola, J. & Huq, S. Debt relief and financing climate change action. Nat. Clim. Change 4, 650–653 (2014).

    Article 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Haushofer, J. & Shapiro, J. The short-term impact of unconditional cash transfers to the poor: experimental evidence from Kenya. Q. J. Econ. 131, 1973–2042 (2016).

    Article 
    PubMed 
    PubMed Central 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Proctor, J., Hsiang, S., Burney, J., Burke, M. & Schlenker, W. Estimating global agricultural effects of geoengineering using volcanic eruptions. Nature 560, 480–483 (2018).

    Article 
    ADS 
    CAS 
    PubMed 

    Google Scholar
     

  • National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. Reflecting Sunlight: Recommendations for Solar Geoengineering Research and Research Governance https://doi.org/10.17226/25762 (National Academies Press, 2021).

  • Berrang-Ford, L. et al. A systematic global stocktake of evidence on human adaptation to climate change. Nat. Clim. Change 11, 989–1000 (2021).

    Article 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar
     

  • United Nations Environment Programme. Adaptation Gap Report 2024: Come Hell and High Water—As Fires and Floods Hit the Poor Hardest, it is Time for the World to Step up Adaptation Actions (2024).

  • Carleton, T. et al. Valuing the global mortality consequences of climate change accounting for adaptation costs and benefits. Q. J. Econ. 137, 2037–2105 (2022).

    Article 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Bastien-Olvera, B. A. & Moore, F. C. Use and non-use value of nature and the social cost of carbon. Nat. Sustain. 4, 101–108 (2021).

    Article 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Tschakert, P., Ellis, N. R., Anderson, C., Kelly, A. & Obeng, J. One thousand ways to experience loss: a systematic analysis of climate-related intangible harm from around the world. Global Environ. Change 55, 58–72 (2019).

    Article 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Depsky, N. et al. Dscim-coastal v1. 1: an open-source modeling platform for global impacts of sea level rise. Geosci. Model Dev. 16, 4331–4366 (2023).

    Article 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Frame, D. J., Wehner, M. F., Noy, I. & Rosier, S. M. The economic costs of Hurricane Harvey attributable to climate change. Clim. Change 160, 271–281 (2020).

    Article 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Callahan, C. W. & Mankin, J. S. Globally unequal effect of extreme heat on economic growth. Sci. Adv. 8, eadd3726 (2022).

    Article 
    CAS 
    PubMed 
    PubMed Central 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Rennert, K. et al. Comprehensive evidence implies a higher social cost of CO2. Nature 610, 687–692 (2022).

    Article 
    ADS 
    CAS 
    PubMed 
    PubMed Central 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Swain, D. L., Singh, D., Touma, D. & Diffenbaugh, N. S. Attributing extreme events to climate change: a new frontier in a warming world. One Earth 2, 522–527 (2020).

    Article 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Lin, X. et al. Monitoring and quantifying CO2 emissions of isolated power plants from space. Atmos. Chem. Phys. 23, 6599–6611 (2023).

    Article 
    ADS 
    CAS 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Matthews, H. D. & Caldeira, K. Stabilizing climate requires near-zero emissions. Geophys. Res. Lett. 35, GL032388 (2008).

  • Archer, D. et al. Atmospheric lifetime of fossil fuel carbon dioxide. Ann. Rev. Earth Planet. Sci. 37, 117–134 (2009).

    Article 
    ADS 
    CAS 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Leach, N. J. et al. Fairv2.0.0: a generalized impulse response model for climate uncertainty and future scenario exploration. Geosci. Model Dev. 14, 3007–3036 (2021).

    Article 
    ADS 
    CAS 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Lee, J. et al. in Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis (eds Masson-Delmotte, V. & Zhai, P.) Ch. 4 (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2021).

  • Hawkins, E. & Sutton, R. The potential to narrow uncertainty in regional climate predictions. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 90, 1095–1108 (2009).

    Article 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Gridded Population of the World, Version 4 (gpwv4): Population Count, Revision 11 (CIESIN, 2018).

  • Budget, G. C. Global carbon budget 2022. Earth Sys. Sci. Data 14, 4811–4900 (2022).

    Article 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Heede, R. Tracing anthropogenic carbon dioxide and methane emissions to fossil fuel and cement producers, 1854–2010. Clim. Change 122, 229–241 (2014).

    Article 
    ADS 
    CAS 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Davis, S. J. & Caldeira, K. Consumption-based accounting of CO2 emissions. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 107, 5687–5692 (2010).

    Article 
    ADS 
    CAS 
    PubMed 
    PubMed Central 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Davis, S. J., Peters, G. P. & Caldeira, K. The supply chain of CO2 emissions. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 108, 18554–18559 (2011).

    Article 
    ADS 
    CAS 
    PubMed 
    PubMed Central 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Robinson, L., Tahmasebi, A. & Mitchell, I. Valuing Climate Liabilities: Calculating the Cost of Countries’ Historical Damage from Carbon Emissions to Inform Future Climate Finance Commitments CGD Policy Paper 233 (CGD, 2021).

  • Supran, G., Rahmstorf, S. & Oreskes, N. Assessing exxonmobil’s global warming projections. Science 379, eabk0063 (2023).

    Article 
    CAS 
    PubMed 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Muñoz-Sabater, J. et al. Era5-land: a state-of-the-art global reanalysis dataset for land applications. Earth Syst. Sci. Data 13, 4349–4383 (2021).

    Article 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Bank, T. W. World Development Indicators (World Bank, 2022); http://data.worldbank.org/data-catalog/world-development-indicators.

  • Jordà, Ò Estimation and inference of impulse responses by local projections. Am. Econ. Rev. 95, 161–182 (2005).

    Article 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Muggeo, V. M. Estimating regression models with unknown break-points. Stat. Med. 22, 3055–3071 (2003).

    Article 
    PubMed 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Deryugina, T. & Hsiang, S. The Marginal Product of Climate NBER Working Paper 24072, https://doi.org/10.3386/w24072 (2017).

  • Burke, M. & Tanutama, V. Climatic Constraints on Aggregate Economic Output NBER Working Paper 25779. https://doi.org/10.3386/w25779 (2019).

  • Kalkuhl, M. & Wenz, L. The impact of climate conditions on economic production. evidence from a global panel of regions. J. Environ. Econ. Management 103, 102360 (2020).

    Article 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Newell, R. G., Prest, B. C. & Sexton, S. E. The GDP–temperature relationship: implications for climate change damages. J. Environ. Econ. Management 108, 102445 (2021).

    Article 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Greene, W. H. Econometric Analysis 5th Edn (Prentice Hall, 2003).

  • Müller, U. K., Stock, J. H. & Watson, M. W. An econometric model of international growth dynamics for long-horizon forecasting. Rev. Econ. Stat. 104, 857–876 (2022).

    Article 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Goulder, L. H. & Williams III, R. The choice of discount rate for climate change policy evaluation. Clim. Change Econ. 3, 1250024 (2012).

    Article 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Groom, B., Drupp, M. A., Freeman, M. C. & Nesje, F. The future, now: a review of social discounting. Ann. Rev. Res. Econ. 14, 467–491 (2022).

    Article 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Frederick, S., Loewenstein, G. & O’donoghue, T. Time discounting and time preference: a critical review. J. Econ. Lit. 40, 351–401 (2002).

    Article 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Stern, N. Stern Review: The Economics of Climate Change Technical Report (HM Treasury, 2006).

  • Nordhaus, W. D. A review of the stern review on the economics of climate change. J. Econ. Lit. 45, 686–702 (2007).

    Article 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Rode, A. et al. Estimating a social cost of carbon for global energy consumption. Nature 598, 308–314 (2021).

    Article 
    ADS 
    CAS 
    PubMed 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Zickfeld, K., Azevedo, D., Mathesius, S. & Matthews, H. D. Asymmetry in the climate–carbon cycle response to positive and negative CO2 emissions. Nat. Clim. Change 11, 613–617 (2021).

    Article 
    ADS 
    CAS 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Zahid, M. echolab-stanford/loss_damage: Replication code for Burke Zahid Diffenbaugh Hsiang, Jan 2026. Zenodo https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18158445 (2026).

  • RELATED ARTICLES

    Most Popular

    Recent Comments