The Phoenix Suns were completely screwed. The franchise’s all-in moves for Kevin Durant at the 2023 trade deadline and Bradley Beal to begin the 2024 offseason had backfired in epic fashion, resulting in just one playoff series win (with Durant only) before a first-round sweep and lottery appearance forced a hard pivot. The Suns had no choice but to trade Durant last summer coming off a 36-win season, and they followed it by waiving-and-stretching Beal, which put $19.4 million of dead money on their books for the next five years. In addition to putting themselves in a cap crunch, the Suns also didn’t have any draft ammunition without control of their first-round pick until 2032.
When I ranked the league’s worst long-term outlooks coming into the season, I put Phoenix at No. 2 and openly wondered why they weren’t interesting in trading Devin Booker.
The Suns could have had a life vest for their future this summer, but they were too delusional to take it. Phoenix’s most prudent move would have been trading Devin Booker, and trying to recoup some of their own first-round picks that they’ve traded away. Instead, Booker signed an extension that will pay him $75 million once it kicks in for the 2028-29 season. It just feels very unlikely they can build a good team around him in the West while not owning any of their first-round picks.
Vegas didn’t believe in the retooled Suns either, putting their over/under at 30.5 wins entering the season.
Fast forward through the first half of the first year without Durant and Beal, and Phoenix has made me and their other skeptics look very stupid. The Suns are 27-17 and would make the playoffs in the West without needing to go through the play-in if the season ended today. After starting the year at No. 25 in my initial power rankings, Phoenix now cracks the top-10. The Suns are the most pleasant surprise in the league, and they’ve given their fans something to cheer for when everyone else wrote off their next half-decade.
How has Phoenix pulled off the best turnaround of the season? Let’s count the ways.
The Suns nailed their Kevin Durant trade
It felt like the Suns didn’t have any leverage when they went to trade Durant over the summer, because a) the whole league knew he was on the block, b) he was about to turn 37 years old, and c) he was on an expiring contract. Without a bidding war, the Rockets were able to land KD without giving back anyone of note from their young core or either of the future first-round picks they possessed from Phoenix. How could the Suns do that deal without at least landing Reed Sheppard? That was one of my complaints in giving Phoenix a D grade for the trade.
Whoops. It’s clear now that the Suns did very well in the Durant trade, and it’s part of what set them up for success this year and possibly beyond. The Suns checked every box in the trade:
- They got a win-now veteran starter in Dillon Brooks, who gave them both the volume three-point shooting and competitive edge defensively that they needed
- They got a young player with upside in Jalen Green, who could benefit from a change of scenery and wasn’t on the books that long even if it felt like he was a little overpaid
- They got a long-term upside play with the No. 10 overall pick, which they used to swing on Duke center Khaman Maluach, who I had ranked No. 3 overall in the class
Three assets, one that could help immediately, one that aided their short-term future, and one that aided their long term future. Green has barely even played this year as he’s dealt with a lingering hamstring strain, and Maluach is essentially getting a redshirt year in the G League. Despite two of the three players contributing nothing so far, it was still a great for Phoenix that has a chance to pay off even bigger in the future.
The Suns nailed their coaching hire
Mat Ishbia demanded a head coach with championship experience from the moment he took over the Suns. After needing to fire Monty Williams, Frank Vogel, and Mike Budenholzer in the three years to begin his tenure, Ishbia allowed in his front office to go the other way with the hiring on Jordan Ott.
Ott had no previous head coaching experience and had never been a player. At 40 years old, he was most recently on staff the Cleveland Cavaliers under Kenny Atkinson, but his main qualification for the Suns seemed to be that he went to Michigan State.
Ott has obviously been outstanding through the first half of this season, and should be the runaway favorite for NBA Coach of the Year. Ott’s schematic brilliance has been on display in raising the Phoenix defense from No. 28 to No. 4 in just one year, but he’s also done a great job getting everyone to buy into their role to create an egoless team of role players around Booker.
The Suns nailed their fringe roster moves
Collin Gillespie was a two-time Big East Player of the Year and All-American at Villanova who went undrafted because he didn’t have the size, athleticism, or rim scoring teams look for in a point guard. The Suns originally signed him to a two-way deal in the summer of 2024, and he looked good enough in 33 games last year that Phoenix decided to give him a guaranteed one-year minimum deal for this season.
Gillespie has rewarded their faith by turning into one of the league’s best development stories this year with a +2.9 EPM grades out in the 92nd percentile of all players. Gillespie still doesn’t finish at the rim, but he’s become a 42 percent three-point shooter, a solid passer, and a menace defensively who ranks No. 16 in the league in steal percentage. Before the season, everyone wondered how Phoenix would find a point guard next to Booker, and Gillespie has given them everything they needed.
Jordan Goodwin has been another awesome find. The Suns claimed him after he was waived by the Lakers, and he’s emerged as one of the league’s best defensive pests this season. Goodwin is No. 4 in the league in steal percentage and No. 6 in steals per 100 possessions right now. Ott has also empowered him to jack threes at every opportunity, going from 6.2 to 9.7 three-point attempts per 100 possessions over the last year. Goodwin is knocking them down at a 35 percent clip so far, which is great for him.
Add in solid contributions from 2024 second-round pick Oso Ighodaro and current two-way guard Jamaree Bouyea, and the Suns changed their entire outlook this season by most the making of every fringe roster signing.
The Suns crush the offensive glass while still getting back in transition
The conventional wisdom that said crashing the offensive glass came at the cost of getting back in transition defensively is dead, and the Suns are the best proof. Phoenix ranks No. 6 in the league in offensive rebound rate and No. 5 in points allowed in transition per 100 possessions, per Cleaning the Glass.
The Suns have not adopted the double big mentality of many teams, choosing to play with 6’6 Royce O’Neale and 6’7 Dillon Brooks next to center Mark Williams. Phoenix has been able to chase the long rebounds that come from their missed threes with a smaller lineup, and they can get back quicker defensively.
Phoenix was terrible in both areas last year, finishing No. 23 in offensive rebound rate and No. 27 in transition defense. This more than anything is the best example of Ott’s genius at work.
The Suns have maximized every ounce of defensive potential
Durant felt like the Suns’ best defender last year. That’s a huge problem. By trading him, the Suns put a bunch of defensive-minded players around Devin Booker who could do the dirty work and help win the possession battle.
Last year’s Suns were No. 28 in defensive rating under Budenholzer. This year’s Suns are No. 4 in defensive rating under Ott. Aside from fixing the transition defense, the biggest adjustment has been empowering his team to hunt for more steals even if it means getting called for fouls. The Suns have gone from No. 28 to No. 3 in defensive turnover percentage, with both Goodwin and Gillespie turning into steals monsters. All the steals have helped the transition frequency significantly increase as well, and transition scoring is always more efficient than halfcourt scoring.
Opponents are only shooting 34.6 percent from three against Phoenix this year, so maybe they have some shooting luck on their side. Still, it has to be exhausting to play against a team that plays so physically defensively and always hunts the ball. I don’t think it’s all shooting luck.
Building around Booker without cap space or future draft capital seemed like an impossible task for the Suns. Instead, they’ve pulled it off by targeting role players who could go all-out defensively and try to get extra possessions on the offensive glass. Booker has been a solid contributor to a great defense, and offensively he’s done well to get more easy baskets at the foul line even during a year when he’s not shooting the ball well from deep.
Just about every move the Suns made worked out. Trading two late first-round picks for Mark Williams was a fantastic move to add rim protection and rebounding, though he’ll need to be resigned in restricted free agency. Keeping Grayson Allen and O’Neale instead of trading them for Jonathan Kuminga (which the Warriors reportedly turned down) was hugely beneficial. Ryan Dunn and Ighodaro are late round draft hits who don’t need the ball to impact winning. Everything revolves around Booker, and he’s making a big impact (89th percentile EPM) despite a brutal 49.7 percent effective field goal percentage. Just imagine how this looks when Booker’s shots start falling, and Jalen Green’s microwave scoring becomes a full-time part of the lineup.
The next step will be harder to take for the Suns with their draft and cap sheet limitations. The easiest path to leveling up is unleashing Maluach. I still see a super long interior scorer and paint protector who will be able to eventually hit shots from the three-point line. Resigning Gillespie is also a must, and integrating Green without sacrificing too much of the defense will be a tough needle to thread as well.
I was so, so wrong about the Suns. There’s nothing wrong with being a plucky mid-table playoff team, and Phoenix has already achieved that. After successfully pulling off a retooling with very little flexibility, it would be foolish to think another step is impossible. The Suns had to get everything right to avoid a doomed future, and they actually did it.
