The close to the 2025 NFL regular season and the start of the 2026 NFL Playoffs have been absolutely wild when it comes to the coaching carousel. Nine teams are currently searching for the next head coach who can lead them to greatness, with the two longest tenured head coaches in the league now out of a job as John Harbaugh was fired in Baltimore, while Mike Tomlin “left” the Pittsburgh Steelers, and we can all read between the lines there.
There is a constant churn when it comes to the coaching positions in the NFL. It’s incredibly rare that a Harbaugh or Tomlin lands a job and stays in it for over a decade, which means it’s never too soon to look at the league and predict which coaches could already be on the hot seat before the 2026 season even begins, and who has ample breathing room next season, and possibly beyond.
We polled staff members for their rankings on the coaches who have the most job security, and here are the results.
No. 1: Mike Vrabel — New England Patriots
Mike Vrabel took a New England Patriots team that finished 4-13 a season ago and turned them into the No. 2 seed in the AFC, AFC East champions, and a team that moves on to the Divisional Round after finishing the regular season with a 14-3 record. Yes, an easy schedule helped. Yes, the development of Drake Maye helped. Yes, a tremendous amount of cap space helped. But a turnaround like this, coupled with Vrabel’s history in New England as a player, has given him a ton of breathing room.
No. 2: Ben Johnson — Chicago Bears
It would take something unthinkable for Ben Johnson to be anywhere near the hot seat in Chicago. Right now the man is a coaching God, and even a complete sophomore collapse wouldn’t be enough to put his job at risk. Thus far we’ve seen the Bears’ head coach be everything the franchise hoped he would be, and more — unlocking Caleb Williams, while turning the team into a playoff winner. Outside of building a reliable defense there’s nothing this team needs.
No. 3: Sean McVay — Los Angeles Rams
If there was a time McVay could have been at risk it was the period immediately follow Aaron Donald’s retirement. Any fears that losing Donald would close the Rams’ window has been assuaged as McVay once again had this team competing deep into the playoffs. A young coach, a stunning resume, and sustained success — burnout is really the only thing that could stop McVay at this point.
No. 4: Kyle Shanahan — San Francisco 49ers
You could make the case that this is the best coaching job yet from Kyle Shanahan. A team beleaguered by injuries, with players such as Fred Warner, Nick Bosa, George Kittle, and Brock Purdy all missing time this season, is back in the Divisional Round. While San Francisco’s run could end there as they’ll take on a Seattle Seahawks team they lost to 13-3 in Week 18 with the No. 1 seed on the line, the fact the 49ers are even where they are this season is a testament to the job Shanahan has done.
Yes, he has yet to win a Super Bowl, but it is hard to see the 49ers making a change anytime soon.
No. 5: DeMeco Ryans — Houston Texans
All DeMeco Ryans has done since taking over in Houston?
Three winning seasons, three playoff appearances, and three consecutive stops in the Divisional Round. He’ll look to guide the Texans to his first AFC Championship Game this weekend against the New England Patriots, and with the defense they have built in Houston, the Texans have a very good shot at winning that game.
But that kind of start to a coaching career certainly gives you some job security.
No. 6: Mike Macdonald — Seattle Seahawks
Not only did Mike Macdonald transform the Seahawks into the NFC’s best team in the regular season, but his talent looks even more impressive in light of the mammoth tumble the Ravens took without having him as their defensive coordinator. Having the complete support of team president John Schneider plays a large role in Macdonald’s safety, which puts him near the top of this list.
No. 7: Sean Payton — Denver Broncos
The start of Sean Payton’s tenure in Denver was rather rocky, as the Broncos finished 8-9 and a move for Russell Wilson failed to bear fruit.
But then Denver added Bo Nix, a quarterback built in a lab to play for Payton, and the result was a surprising 10-7 finish a season ago. While the Broncos were bounced out of the playoffs by the Bills on Wild Card weekend, the future seemed bright. Those hopes were realized this past season when Denver finished as the class of the AFC with a 14-3 record. With Nix developing and a fantastic defense on the other side of the ball, Payton and the Broncos are in good shape for the next few years.
No. 8: Liam Coen — Jacksonville Jaguars
Coen’s first season as the Jaguars head coach was incredibly promising, leading the team to the playoffs and an AFC South title in his first season. Picking up where he left off in Tampa Bay, the offense was vastly improved under the rookie head coach, which now shifts the focus onto sustaining success.
If there’s one thing history has taught us about Jacksonville it’s that head coaches don’t often get a lot of rope — but this is an occasions where a new, promising GM made Coen their first big hire, and that will give him a lot of room to build this franchise. Given the early returns hell be safe for a while.
No. 9: Dan Campbell — Detroit Lions
Dan Campbell has changed the culture in Detroit, turning the Lions from the team that finished 3-13-1 in his first season to one of the contenders in the NFC, having finished 12-5 in 2023 and 15-2 in 2024. He’s done it while combining his hard-nosed persona with an aggressive decision-making mindset driven in analytics.
But last year’s 9-8 season showed that not everything is perfect in Detroit. With some moves along the offensive line this offseason the Lions should be contenders yet again, and it would take a lot to see Detroit move in another direction anytime soon.
No. 10: Andy Reid — Kansas City Chiefs
There is no reason to believe that Andy Reid will be fired anytime soon.
But the bigger question is whether we are reaching a Mike Tomlin situation. Certainly, the chance to coach Patrick Mahomes will keep Reid engaged as long as he wants, but Reid already has a Hall of Fame resume, and has done everything you can do as a coach in this league. While there are some that would love to see him take on a different challenge — his name was floated as a potential head coach for the New York Giants — his career shoulder end in Kansas City when the time is right.
He’s earned the right to go out on his terms, but we’re just wondering if that day is approaching quicker than we thought.
No. 11: Jim Harbaugh — Los Angeles Chargers
Jim Harbaugh’s return to NFL coaching was widely heralded when the Chargers hired him in 2024 — and things look quite good. The team has made the playoffs in back-to-back years, and transformed almost every element of the roster. There are lingering questions whether or not this team can do more than just lose in the Wild Card round, but there’s also a tacit understanding that failures in the 2025 season would have been very different had the Chargers not been dealing with very significant injuries.
It will be at least a few more years, and require more failure than getting bounced in the playoffs before anyone can talk about Harbaugh being out in Los Angeles.
No. 12: Dave Canales — Carolina Panthers
The jury is still out on whether or not Dave Canales can being a high tier NFL head coach, but he has a lot going for him right now. A long history with GM Dan Morgan dating back to their time together in Seattle is a major checkmark in his favor, as is making the playoffs in his second year as head coach — which happened in spite of inheriting a deeply flawed roster with holes at several key positions.
Bryce Young’s development in 2026 will likely have a mammoth effect on Canales’ future, but even then there’s a strong chance the team will stand pat at head coach for a while. Owner David Tepper is intimately aware of the criticism surrounding his impatience, an he’s desperate to dispel the notion, which gives Canales more room to grow (or fail).
No. 13: Sean McDermott — Buffalo Bills
Sean McDermott is beginning to approach to the Harbaugh/Tomlin line where something needs to happen beyond making good playoff runs. This is year nine of his tenure, and while the Bills have had phenomenal regular season success, they’ve also hit their head into a brick wall numerous times while trying to make the Super Bowl.
What makes McDermott’s future a little more iffy is how long the team will continue with Brandon Beane as GM, should Buffalo flame out in the playoffs once more. There is a very real chance the team could make a change at general manager, which could then precipitate a coaching switch as well. These NFL playoffs mean a lot for their shares future.
No. 14: Kevin O’Connell — Minnesota Vikings
The Minnesota Vikings are still working through their “competitive rebuild,” which is some incredible PR for “mediocrity.” Kevin O’Connell is a fantastic head coach when he has the tools he needs at QB, but thus far the selection of J.J. McCarthy has been an abject disaster with the second year passer vacillating between being mediocre, or hurt — with very little in between.
There’s some latitude here with GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah receiving an extension in 2025, but there will be pressure on O’Connell to get this team through this ugly stage and into the postseason with regularity. It’s feeling like he has 2-3 years to achieve this.
No. 15: Matt LaFleur — Green Bay Packers
Everyone is well aware of the unbelievable flame out the Packers had in the playoffs at the hands of Chicago, which came about largely due to coaching mismanagement in the fourth quarter. Still, the Packers would be hard pressed to find many coaches who are better than Matt LaFleur. If his biggest sin is regular season success, well, Green Bay could do a lot worse.
Despite this we’re seeing some doubt begin to creep in. There has to be a gut check that leads to LaFleur bringing in another coach to handle play calling duties, or clock management — maybe even both. The overall tactical prowess of LaFleur is beginning to be overshadowed by his in-game management, putting him on a tight leash.
No. 16: Kellen Moore — New Orleans Saints
It looked like Kellen Moore was stepping into a difficult situation when he took the job with the New Orleans Saints. The team was in a tenuous salary cap position, and Derek Carr was expected to be their quarterback. That situation grew tougher when Carr retired, leaving Moore with Spencer Rattler and incoming rookie Tyler Shough as his two quarterback options. But after starting Rattler to open the season Moore turned to Shough, who showed enough down the stretch to likely secure that job into 2025. Not only that, but the Saints won four of their final five games, ending the year with some momentum. That closing run, and the promise heading into next season, give him some security.
No. 17: Nick Sirianni — Philadelphia Eagles
As of the time of publication, no coach on this list has won a Super Bowl more recently than Nick Sirianni.
The Philadelphia Eagles remain an enigma. When the team is winning, everything seems fine, but losses make it seem like the tension that is simmering below the surface is about to boil over. The NFC Wild Card game saw more of that, as Sirianni exchanged words with wide receiver A.J. Brown on the sidelines near the end of the first half. Nobody seems happy, and the offseason is getting off to a strange start with the news that offensive coordinator Kevin Patullo will no longer be the offensive coordinator. That opens the door to perhaps a new offensive coordinator with some power to challenge Sirianni, which could change the balance of power on the sidelines.
Or they could just give Big Dom the head coaching job already.
No. 18: Brian Schottenheimer — Dallas Cowboys
Nobody is secure in their job while Jerry Jones is in charge. There’s a massive amount on impatience from the Cowboys owner/GM to see success, and unrealistic expectations about what the Dallas roster can achieve. Schottenheimer was far from bad in his first season, leading Dallas to a 7-9-1 record despite an abysmal defense — but Schotty has already used up his obligatory coordinator firing in his first season. This means he’s already running out of excuses for failing, and will need to see this team make significant strides quickly in order to keep his job for a while.
As an owner Jones is okay settling for some degree of mediocrity, but there’s always a breaking point.
No. 19: Shane Steichen — Indianapolis Colts
For a moment, Shane Steichen looked like a strong candidate for Coach of the Year honors. The Indianapolis Colts were at the top of the AFC South, Daniel Jones was playing like a potential MVP candidate, and the playoffs seemed guaranteed.
Then came some losses, a season-ending injury to Jones, a Hail Mary decision to lure Philip Rivers out of retirement, and the Colts crashed out of a playoff spot.
Now the Colts face an uncertain offseason at the quarterback position, and Steichen’s job security looks a little less solid than it did in October.
No. 20: Dan Quinn — Washington Commanders
Just how fickle is the NFL? This time last year Dan Quinn was on a journey to the NFC Championship game. But a year later, we are wondering about his job security. After losing Jayden Daniels for most of the season due to injuries, the Commanders missed out on the playoffs this past season. Both offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury and defensive coordinator Joe Whitt Jr. were fired, but now the onus is squarely on Quinn’s shoulders. If the team turns things around and gets back in the playoff mix, he’ll be safe, but another difficult season could leave him squarely on the hot seat.
No. 21: Todd Bowles — Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers entered their bye week with a 6-2 record, looking like one of the top teams in the NFC.
They finished 8-9 and crashed out of a playoff spot.
Along a stretch that saw Tampa Bay go 2-7 after their bye week, Todd Bowles even took to the microphone to blast his players, challenging them to “look in the mirror” after the team blew a two-touchdown lead to the Atlanta Falcons. It had the feeling of a coach who had already lost the locker room.
Bowles is back for next year, but with changes made at both defensive coordinator spots, this has the feeling of deck chairs being rearranged on the Titanic.
No. 22: Zac Taylor — Cincinnati Bengals
As of this moment, Zac Taylor is the longest-tenured head coach in the AFC North.
Which is stunning, given that just a few weeks ago it looked like he might be the first one fired.
There are some financial implications associated with firing Taylor, along with some history from Bengals ownership, that might give him some security. His contract reportedly runs through 2027, and ownership is very hesitant to pay coaches not to coach, so if those years are guaranteed, then Taylor might have more security than we think. But one Super Bowl appearance with Joe Burrow — and three consecutive seasons missing out on the playoffs — feels like an underachievement. Burrow’s injury this season might also have given him some time, but time could be running out.
No. 23: Aaron Glenn — New York Jets
When Aaron Glenn departed the Detroit Lions along with Ben Johnson, there were many who thought he might be the better head coaching candidate of the two Detroit coordinators.
His first season with the New York Jets did not live up to those expectations.
While the Jets do need to address the quarterback position, and perhaps drafting a rookie at No. 2 gives Glenn some breathing room, there are also concerns on the defensive side of the football. The Jets made some unwanted NFL history as they went the entire season without an interception, the first team in NFL history to accomplish that feat. Glenn may have been given the chance to start another year, but we’re not sure that he’ll finish it.
