Three drivers. Two race weekends. Two grands prix with a Sprint Race thrown into the mix.
The 2025 Formula 1 season is coming down to the wire, and the stakes could not be higher.
Fresh off a dramatic Las Vegas Grand Prix, the grid heads straight to Qatar for this weekend’s Qatar Grand Prix, the second race in a tripleheader that closes out the 2025 campaign. While there are several storylines to watch, one dominates them all.
A storyline that could shape the landscape of the sport for years to come.
When the checkered flag flew at the end of the Las Vegas Grand Prix, it looked as if Lando Norris had put one hand on the F1 Drivers’ Championship trophy.
While Max Verstappen had won in Las Vegas, Norris’ second-place finish moved him to 408 points. With Oscar Piastri crossing the line fifth, and being promoted to fourth after a five-second penalty handed down to Kimi Antonelli, this is what the top three looked like as the celebrations began:
Lando Norris: 408 points
Oscar Piastri: 378 points (-30)
Max Verstappen: 366 points (-42)
But then word trickled out about a problem at McLaren, and when the FIA was slow to release the final classification, rumors began to spread. Finally, the hammer dropped that rocked the sport. Both Norris and Piastri had been disqualified due to their cars failing post-race inspections, and the standings changed dramatically.
Now as the grid arrives in Qatar, this is the state of play atop the table:
Lando Norris: 390 points
Oscar Piastri: 366 points (-24)
Max Verstappen: 366 points (-24)
Norris can still clinch the title in Qatar, and with both a F1 Sprint race and the Qatar Grand Prix he will have two opportunities to get the points he needs. Long story short, Norris needs to leave Qatar with a 26-point lead over both Piastri and Verstappen to be guaranteed the title. Anything less than that and the Drivers’ Championship will be decided at the season finale.
Even a 25-point lead might not be enough.
The first tiebreaker is grand prix wins. Right now, Norris and Piastri are level with seven, while Verstappen has six. In a world where Norris and Verstappen finish the season tied on points — but Verstappen wins both the Qatar Grand Prix and the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix — the Red Bull driver will have his fifth title.
In fact, Norris may hope any tiebreaker scenario goes to the second round, which is second-place finishes. Norris has eight of those, ahead of Piastri’s three and Verstappen’s five. Neither driver can catch Norris in that category.
But this is THE storyline until the season is over, and a winner is crowned.
Tire restrictions at the Qatar Grand Prix
The 2023 Qatar Grand Prix was one of the more punishing races in recent memory.
Following the single hour of practice, as well as qualifying for the 2023 Qatar Grand Prix, Pirelli raised concerns about the wear on the tires. Damage from the kerbs, specifically at Turns 12 and 13, raised the potential of tire blowouts. Race officials altered track limits at Turns 12 and 13 before the F1 Sprint Shootout, and drivers were given additional time to adjust to those new track limits during a ten minute “acclimatisation session.”
But Pirelli warned that if those concerns remained after the F1 Sprint race, then they would introduce lap limits for the Grand Prix.
The F1 Sprint race was a chaotic affair that saw several crashes, three safety cars, and five drivers retire from the race. That prevented Pirelli from getting the data they needed to properly analyze the tire wear ahead of the Grand Prix.
Given the concerns that remained, the sport’s exclusive tire supplier implemented an 18-lap maximum for each set of tires.
Blowouts were avoided, but the enforced stint lengths created an unexpected set of safety hazards. The lap restrictions led to each driver pushing full out for each of those laps, rather than backing off on a lap or two to reduce degradation and save the tires. Couple that with the oppressive heat and humidity, and several drivers dealt with medical issues during, and after, the race. Logan Sargeant retired due to heat stroke and dehydration, brought on by the flu-like symptoms he began the week with. Esteban Ocon reported that he vomited twice inside the car but still managed to finish seventh. Alexander Albon and Lance Stroll both went directly to the medical center after the race for heat exhaustion, with Stroll reporting that he was “passing out” in the car and dealing with blurred vision.
After the 2023 Qatar Grand Prix, several drivers raised concerns about the conditions.
“I think it’s difficult to put into words and explain how tough it is,” said Charles Leclerc.
“Especially with the g-forces, when you have a lot of dehydration, you can drink but the drink is more of a tea than anything else because it’s at 60 [degrees Celsius]-plus, so it’s extremely difficult to hydrate yourself and again with the g-forces, you don’t see as well.
“The track limits we’re speaking about are [the difference between just] centimetres at 280km/h; in qualifying when we’re fresh it’s difficult to respect them, but then at the end of the race it’s a nightmare.”
George Russell called it “beyond the limit of what was acceptable for driving.”
“You don’t want to be passing out when you’re driving at 200mph down the straight,” Russell added.
“And that’s how I felt at times. Any hotter, I think I’d have retired because my body was going to give up.”
The McLaren duo went a bit further with their comments. Norris, who finished third, said the conditions were “too dangerous” and pointed to the drivers needing medical treatment after the race.
“It’s sad we had to find it this way,” Norris described. “It’s never a nice situation to be in. Some people are ending up in the medical center or passing out, things like that.
“It’s pretty dangerous thing to have going on. It’s not a point where you can go, ‘The drivers need to train more or anything like that’, we’re in a closed car that gets extremely hot in a very physical race.
“It’s frustrating as on TV it probably doesn’t look very physical at all but clearly when you have people who end up retiring or such in a bad state it’s too much for the speeds we’re doing, it’s too dangerous.”
Piastri surmised that F1 was “lucky it wasn’t worse” given it was “four or five degrees hotter” at the track on Thursday.
“We need some discussions about a lot of things from this weekend but it’s not a good situation to be in,” Piastri said.
Those discussions were had, and the 2023 Qatar Grand Prix is a major reason the sport instituted an optional cooling system, including a vest, for this season.
Why the reason for this trip down memory lane?
Tire lap limits are back for this weekend’s Qatar Grand Prix.
Pirelli confirmed earlier this month that a limit of 25 laps will be enforced for all three compounds at the Qatar Grand Prix. Teams will have the hardest compounds in Pirelli’s range at their disposal this week, with the C1 as the hard compound, the C2 as the medium, and the C3 as the soft. Laps that are excluded from that 25-lap limit include laps to the grid, formation laps, and laps after the checkered flag.
Pirelli called the restrictions “necessary,” due to analysis of the tires from last year’s race:
This measure has been deemed necessary, following analysis of the tyres used in 2024. Last year, several tyres, particularly the left front, had reached the maximum wear level. These conditions, combined with the high lateral energy had increased the structural fatigue of the construction.
In order to reduce the number of pit stops, the teams had worked on tyre degradation management, limiting performance drop off, which sometimes ran the risk of extending the stint beyond the useful life of the tyre.
A similar precautionary measure had already been introduced at this track in 2023, although that was for different problems which are now resolved. That year, repeatedly going over some kerbs had led to micro-lacerations in the tyres’ sidewalls. Last year, the subsequent modification to the pyramid kerbs along with the addition of strips of gravel around them, had avoided a repetition of this situation.
Something to monitor this week.
The three-way fight between Norris, Piastri, and Verstappen will dominate the week, but two more fascinating races are taking place on the Constructors’ Championship side of the standings.
The first is the fight between Mercedes, Red Bull, and Ferrari for second. With George Russell classified as second in the Las Vegas Grand Prix following the disqualification to Norris, and Kimi Antonelli classified as third even with his five-second penalty thanks to Piastri’s DQ, Mercedes banked another 33 points in Sin City. That brings their season total to 431 as a team.
With Red Bull getting 25 points from Verstappen, and Ferrari bringing home 16 from Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton, Red Bull moved to 391 points on the year, while Ferrari sits in fourth with 378.
That gives Mercedes the lead heading into the final two race weekends of the season, but where Las Vegas has been kind to the team in recent years, Qatar and Abu Dhabi present a challenge for the Silver Arrows. Mercedes has been strongest in cooler weather the past few seasons, and last year saw them on the back foot in the final two races. Mercedes brought home 43 points from Qatar and Abu Dhabi last year, and while that was more than Red Bull banked (with all 34 points coming from Verstappen) it was well behind what Ferrari did, as the Scuderia scored 68 points over the final two race weekends.
This fight will be one to watch as well.
A three-way fight for seventh
A bit further down the Constructors’ Championship standings we find a three-way battle for seventh.
At the moment Haas leads the way with 73 points, followed by Aston Martin with 72, and Sauber with 68.
It might not be as glamorous as the battles at the top of the standings, but millions of dollars are on the line. According to estimates, the team that finishes seventh will bring home $87 million in prize money, while the eighth-place team will bank around $78 million, and the ninth-place team will bring home around $69 million.
Considering what it costs to operate a Formula 1 team, every million helps.
