If you were looking for the worst game of Week 7 then you probably already had Browns vs. Dolphins circled — but brace yourself, because it’s going to be so much worse than you can possibly imagine. A weather system has entered the area and the forecast for Sunday’s game is about as ugly as you can possibly imagine.
Since this update yesterday morning we have new models showing that it could be an absolutely incredible sight to behold. Sustained winds are now trending towards 25-30 mph, with gusts over 40 mph. The gusts are bad enough for the randomness of the game, but those sustained winds are going to be an absolute nightmare for the passing and kicking games.
Here’s how all this combines to be a total nightmare: Tua Tagovailoa doesn’t have the biggest arm, and he has a tendency to throw touch passes a lot. This means the ball is going to be affected by the wind more than other quarterbacks. Meanwhile the Browns have the 29th ranked rushing offense in the NFL, averaging only 3.9 yards-per-carry.
Conventional wisdom says that when conditions are this bad you lean on the running game. The Browns can’t do that, and one of the few teams worse at running the ball this season are the Dolphins. That means we’re going to see a rain-soaked battle between a quarterback with a suspect arm for the conditions, and a rookie who can’t complete 60 percent of his passes when the sun is shining.
Then if anyone actually manages to move the ball, kickers will need to deal with ludicrous sustained winds, wild gusts, and a slippery playing surface. The Dolphins have tried to prepare for this with special teams practicing with water-soaked footballs all week in preparation for Sunday. It’s unclear if the Browns have done the same.
As a result of the weather the over/under line on the game has moved wildly. Prior to the initial forecast the line was set at 40.5, now it’s at 36.5 on Fanduel and still falling. There is a very real chance this could be the kind of game that ends with both teams in the single digits.
If you’ve ever seen black and white video of a football game in the 1920s then Dolphins vs. Browns might be your chance to experience it in 4K.
