Looking at the NFL standings after six weeks of the 2025 season, you might find yourself asking a simple question.
The league’s push towards parity seems to have kicked into overdrive in 2025. The 1972 Miami Dolphins were able to pop the champagne after Week 5 when the last two undefeated teams — the Philadelphia Eagles and the Buffalo Bills — lost games. And as Week 7 looms, just four teams have a single loss.
One of those teams? The Pittsburgh Steelers.
Is Mike Tomlin on his way to doing it again? Each season, he somehow wills his team to .500 or better, and last year, he led a Steelers team with Russell Wilson and Justin Fields under center to the playoffs.
But can the Steelers do even more in 2025?
Let’s dive into that question.
The case against Pittsburgh
Those who wish to make the case that the Steelers are not legitimate contenders can start here: With their schedule.
Certainly you can only play the teams in front of you, and you never apologize for winning games in the NFL, but Pittsburgh’s four wins do not inspire a ton of confidence. After beating the New York Jets in Week 1 by two points — a team that has yet to win a game and might be staring 0-17 in the face — the Steelers came back and lost to the Seattle Seahawks.
Since then, Pittsburgh has wins against New England, Minnesota, and now Cleveland. Put those four wins together, and they have come against teams with a combined 8-15 record on the season.
Things will get tougher from here on out. After taking on Joe Flacco and the Cincinnati Bengals on Thursday night to kick off Week 7, Pittsburgh still has games against Green Bay, Buffalo, Indianapolis, and Detroit on their schedule. They also have two games remaining against the Ravens, the first of which kicks off the month of December, and if Baltimore is healthy, those could also be tough tests for the Steelers.
Now, let’s dig a little deeper into the metrics, examining Team Tiers and Expected Points Added. While EPA is just one way of looking at data, looking at EPA/Play on both offense and defense highlights just where the Steelers might be in the league, even with that schedule:
While the Steelers are above average in both categories, they are only just above average in both metrics. That sees Pittsburgh clustered with teams like Seattle and New England overall, and in the same tier as Dallas, Jacksonville, Atlanta, and Minnesota.
That does not feel like a contender, does it?
Why you should buy the Steelers
However, this year that might be.
The case for Pittsburgh starts with the standings.
As dawn breaks on the Tuesday following Week 6, the top four teams in the AFC standings are:
The Indianapolis Colts, the Steelers, the Los Angeles Chargers, and the New England Patriots.
Yes, you read that right. And while you might feel a sense of nostalgia looking at those standings, and look ahead to some battles between Peyton Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, Philip Rivers, and Tom Brady, this is not 2006. This is 2025, and those are the four top teams in the AFC after six weeks.
The NFL has preached parity, and this year is just the latest example. Teams that we believed were true AFC title contenders going into the season have stumbled out of the gate, such as Baltimore, Kansas City, and, in recent weeks, Buffalo.
That has opened the door for teams to emerge in the conference, and while one or two weeks would make for a small sample size, we are six weeks into the season, well into October, with Halloween around the corner.
Expanding out a bit, if you want some metrics to bolster an opinion that the Steelers are for real, take a look at Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) through the first six weeks of the season. There you will find the Steelers ranked ninth in the league and fourth in the AFC, behind only the Colts, Chiefs, and Texans … and ahead of the Bills.
What might help account for Pittsburgh being among the contenders in the AFC this season? Say what you want about the decision to sign Aaron Rodgers, but so far, the 2025 Steelers offense has outperformed last season’s version.
A year ago, looking at EPA/Play, this was a below-average unit:
Through six weeks, this is an above-average unit:
The improvement may be slight, but it is leading to wins for the Steelers.
And through six weeks, Arthur Smith is coaxing the best possible version out of Rodgers. The veteran quarterback has posted an Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt of 6.95 — good for 13th in the league and just behind Patrick Mahomes — which is ahead of the 5.87 he posted a season ago with the New York Jets.
In fact, it is his best mark since 2020, when he was league MVP.
While improved quarterback play is one change from 2024 in Pittsburgh, something that has so far remained static, yet is still a big factor in their success, is turnovers. The Steelers tallied 33 takeaways a season ago, tied with the Vikings for the most in the league.
Through five games, the Steelers have ten takeaways, putting them on pace to match that number from a season ago.
Could these data points add up to a title run for Pittsburgh?
This season, they just might.
