There are multiple ways to define what makes an NBA breakout player. For some, it’s making the transition from ‘prospect to player’ and becoming a real part of their team’s rotation. For others, it’s assuming a bigger role in the starting or closing lineup and lining themselves up for generational wealth. The most important jump comes from players who are already very good but suddenly develop into one of the top dogs of the league.
Every NBA season has a handful of players who significantly change the way they’re viewed around the league. It’s going to happen again this year, and it will alter the long-term trajectories of their teams if they hit in a big way.
With the 2025-26 NBA season around the corner, here are six players set for a noticeable leap in production this season, covering every type of breakout, from dependable role player to darkhorse MVP candidate.
Alperen Sengun, C, Houston Rockets
You can make the argument that Sengun broke out last year when he earned the first All-Star nod of his career as the Rockets jumped to the No. 2 seed in the West. I think he’s got another leap left in him. Sengun enters his age-23 season coming off a torrid run in EuroBasket, and he’s going to be in the best team context of his career back in Houston. Sengun played in poor spacing last year for a Rockets team that finished No. 27 in three-point rate, and it pushed his field goal attempts further away from the rim, with more than 40 percent coming from floater range of 3-10 feet, per basketball-reference. A lot of those shots should turn into true rim attempts this year with Kevin Durant around to space the floor, knock down shots, and occupy defensive attention. Sengun was also a poor three-point shooter (23 percent) and free throw shooter (69 percent) last season, but showed he could be better in both areas in EuroBasket. Now that Fred VanVleet is out for the season, it’s possible we see a big leap in Sengun’s playmaking numbers too after posting 24.1 percent assist rate last year. The biggest leap for Sengun last season came defensively, and if that can hold despite more offensive responsibility, we could see him morph into one of the better players in the West. I had Sengun at No. 6 on my NBA MVP watch list, which is an incredibly bold take when he’s 400-1 in the Vegas odds right now. Something tells me it won’t seem so crazy after this season.
Ausar Thompson, G/F, Detroit Pistons
There were a few Pistons players I was tempted to go with here from Jalen Duren and Ron Holland to Jaden Ivey, but Thompson feels like he has the best combination of opportunity and impact potential. Thompson’s twin brother Amen was arguably last season’s biggest breakout player on the Rockets, and Ausar could have followed a similar path if not for a blood clot that cut into the start of his season. Like his brother, Thompson is an extremely poor three-point shooter, but that shouldn’t detract from all he does well. The 22-year-old is one of the NBA’s truly elite athletes, and leverages that explosion to generate turnovers, fly in transition, and clean the glass. Thompson should morph into one of basketball’s premier perimeter defenders this season after finishing in the 98th percentile of steal rate, 99th percentile of deflections, 95th percentile of offensive fouls draw, and 96th percentile of loose balls gathered last season. I’ve always liked his playmaking going back to his Overtime Elite days with his brother, and that could become a bigger part of his offensive skill set if the Pistons can get enough shooting on the floor. It’ll always be tricky to play Thompson alongside another non-shooter (in this case, Duren), but he affects the game in so many areas that it will be hard to keep him off the floor next to Cade Cunningham.
Matas Buzelis, F, Chicago Bulls
The Bulls are built to run, and that’s only going to help Buzelis have the breakout sophomore year the franchise so desperately needs. Chicago had the NBA’s shortest time of possession last year at 13.2 seconds, and while that only led to the league’s No. 20 offense, the commitment to pushing the pace is in the best interest of the team’s brightest young player. Buzelis posted impressive 69.6 percent true shooting in transition last year, and finished in the 86th percentile of points per possession on the break. His defensive impact as a bouncy 6’10 forward was even more impressive for a rookie: he finished in the 94th percentile of block rate, and held opponents to 8 points lower than their average field goal percentage on rim contests, per NBARAPM. After a horrible pre-draft year shooting the ball from three-point range, Buzelis also looked much more confident as a shooter by hitting 36 percent of his threes on 8.2 attempts per 100 possessions as a rookie. He did all of this despite not really playing with the ball in his hands very much. Buzelis’ usage rate should go way up from 18.7 percent last year, and even if there are some awkward moments offensively in the halfcourt as he slowly gains more physical strength, his transition scoring, floor spacing, and secondary rim protection defensively will make him an indispensable player in Billy Donovan’s rotation. The Bulls still feel like a sub .500 team, but Buzelis has a big role and ideal system to flourish on an individual level this year.
Terrence Shannon Jr., G, Minnesota Timberwolves
There’s an opportunity for both of Minnesota’s first-round picks in the 2024 draft to step up this year after Nickeil Alexander-Walker departed in free agency. I was much higher on Rob Dillingham than Shannon Jr. entering that draft, but it feels like Shannon is a better fit for what the Wolves need on the bench right now. Shannon is already 25 years old after five seasons in college, but he proved there were certain aspects of his game that translated well last year. He’s a monster in transition with the speed to separate in the open floor, and the explosion to finish well above the rim. He didn’t take many three-pointers last year, but he made 14-of-39 (35.8 percent) across the regular season and playoffs in very limited minutes. Where Shannon is going to have to really step up is defensively, and that starts with forcing turnovers. His steal rate and deflection generation were troubling low last year, but he has the physical tools to be pretty good there especially when you factor in his transition scoring. I really like Dillingham’s super shifty shot creation too, and it’s very possible I’ll look like a bozo for betraying my pre-draft belief in him to pick Shannon for this list. Both are set up to succeed this year, and if it happens, the Wolves will be in the thick of the Western Conference race once again.
Cam Whitmore, F, Washington Wizards
I’m sticking with my pre-draft belief of Whitmore, who I had rated as the No. 4 overall prospect in the 2023 class before he slid to the No. 20 pick on draft night. Whitmore was always in a tough spot to breakthrough on a Rockets team loaded with athletic, young wings, but he should get a much bigger opportunity for the Wizards this season. Washington is still in tank mode, and that will hopefully allow Whitmore a longer leash to show off his scoring punch. The 21-year-old needs to cut out some of the fat with his shot selection, and that means fewer mid-range attempts with a greater focus on getting to the rim and hoisting threes. He has a rare combination of power and explosion that is extremely hard to contain one-on-one. His three-point shot has looked solid so far in his first two seasons (35.7 percent), but he needs more volume. The big hole in Whitmore’s game has always been his passing vision, and that remains a problem. He has a one-track mind to score and doesn’t see the floor very well. While those shortcomings were tough to reconcile on a top playoff team like Houston, the Wizards should be a lot more forgiving in another uncompetitive season. I still believe in Whitmore’s scoring potential, and Washington could be the perfect spot for it to take hold.
Cason Wallace, G, Oklahoma City Thunder
Wallace is already a critical cog in an NBA champion on the brink of his 22nd birthday, and it feels like he still has so much more room to grow on the offensive end. To this point, Wallace has staked out his rotation spot with his defensive intensity, where his steals, deflections, and rare ability to block jumpers have aided the Thunder’s historic defense. Wallace’s defensive role will only become more vital as Alex Caruso ages out of a being a full-time regular season player, which will only give him more opportunities on the other end of the court. I’m more interested in Wallace’s offensive evolution starting from a low-usage connective piece to perhaps something more dynamic. Wallace has had a usage rate in the 12 percent range each of his first two years in the league, which is about as low as it gets. Part of the reason it’s so low is because he doesn’t turn the ball over very much, and is always careful about his shot selection. When Wallace does allow himself to get into his bag, he has a developing handle, impressive ability to stomp on the breaks with his deceleration, and nice touch on pull-up floater-range shots. I also think Wallace can shoot better than 35 percent from three last year after hitting nearly 42 percent as a rookie. The Thunder have an embarrassment of riches, and if Wallace keeps improving like I think he can, their stockpile of talent will only seem more obscene.
Moussa Diabate, C, Charlotte Hornets
Kel’el Ware, C, Miami Heat
AJ Green, G, Milwaukee Bucks
Jared Butler, G, Phoenix Suns (currently on a non-guaranteed contract)
Sandro Mamukelashvili, C/F, Toronto Raptors
Jake LaRavia, F, Los Angeles Lakers
